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https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/95710| 題名: | 人口結構、住宅價格與強迫儲蓄─台灣儲蓄現象之實證分析 | 作者: | 賴逸芳 | 貢獻者: | 林祖嘉 賴逸芳 |
日期: | 2002 | 上傳時間: | 9-May-2016 | 摘要: | 本文擬由總體時間序列分析來看住宅資產價值及人口老化問題能否適切地詮釋台灣儲蓄率的變化，並引用強迫儲蓄的概念，在考慮住宅資產的儲蓄、投資意義後，傳統定義的儲蓄率低估了人們實際的儲蓄行為，因此，本文擬估計台灣有貸款家庭每期攤還房屋貸款本金支出的數額，並將其加回儲蓄，重新探討住宅資產對儲蓄的影響。再者，由於東方家庭留遺產的強烈動機，使得人口結構轉變不僅透過生命週期模型影響總儲蓄，並且可能改變繼承龐大遺產的下一代的儲蓄行為，加強了人口老化問題對總儲蓄的負面效果，因此本文亦將代表人口結構轉變的老人人口比率置於模型中討論。\r\n 本論文的實證結果發現，若加回償還購屋貸款本金部分的強迫儲蓄，儲蓄率在近幾年已有回升的跡象，傳統定義下的儲蓄率在房價飆漲後嚴重地低估了人們實際的儲蓄行為。另外，本文利用共整合分析法發現，人口老化對總儲蓄確有負面衝擊，且若我們忽略了房價上漲所帶來的強迫儲蓄效果，將會過度高估了住宅資本利得對儲蓄的影響。再者，以誤差修正模型來描繪儲蓄的短期動態調整，若忽略房價所造成的強迫儲蓄效果，將使得總體儲蓄的短期調整速度較慢，達到長期均衡所需的時間較長，而強迫儲蓄模型ECM在預測能力的表現上亦較傳統儲蓄模型ECM佳。最後，我們以因果關係檢定確立了住宅資產價格對總儲蓄存在因果關係，因此，我們可以由房價的趨勢預測未來儲蓄的動態變化。\r\n 所以，本文認為住宅資產大幅增值所產生的強迫儲蓄效果和資本利得效果以及人口老化的趨勢，可以為台灣國民儲蓄率下降的現象提出合理的解釋。 | 參考文獻: | 王維漢、李貳連(1987), “我國儲蓄行為之研究”,台灣經濟, 128,14-30\r\n江莉莉(1999), “預防性儲蓄與全民健康保險”, 經濟論文叢刊, 27:3, 337-357\r\n林金龍、吳中書、陳仕緯(1999), “金融資產與儲蓄─台灣的實證研究”, 經濟論文, 27:1,81-102\r\n林祖嘉、陳建良(1998), “貸款支出與強迫儲蓄：台灣地區家計單位儲蓄行為再分析”, 台灣經濟學會年會論文集, 173-210\r\n吳惠林(1976), “現階段台灣人口因素對儲蓄的影響”, 國立台灣大學經濟研究所碩士論文\r\n祈玉蘭(1999), “台灣儲蓄率之實證研究：1952-1995年”, 經濟論文, 27:3, 335-357\r\n侯繼明、周濟(1987), “造成目前經濟問題之原因與政府應採之因應政策分項報告(三)超額儲蓄問題之研究”, 中華經濟研究院\r\n孫震(1982), “揭開台灣高儲蓄率的謎底”, 天下雜誌, 民國71年2月, 72-74\r\n陳坤銘(1984), “官定利率、民間借貸與家庭儲蓄”, 中華經濟研究院經濟專論, (45)\r\n陳建良、張郁鶴( 2000), “住宅租擁、世代組成與家計儲蓄間關係之探討：以台灣家庭收支調查為對象的分析”, 住宅學報, 9:2, 99-124\r\n曾永清(1987), “個人租稅與儲蓄─台灣之實證分析”, 臺灣銀行季刊, 38:2, 6-46-84\r\n葉律言(1991), “台灣儲蓄函數的再探討”, 臺灣銀行季刊, 42:4, 211-247\r\n曾麗弘(1999), “台灣儲蓄率定義之探討”, 經社法制論叢, 24期, 234-246\r\n張金鶚、林紀玫(1994), “我國住宅金融狀況問卷調查分析”, 房地產價格、品質與金融之研究論文集, 345-364\r\n詹維玲、胡勝正(1996), “台灣消費函數之時間序列實證研究─消費對當前所得的反應”, 經濟論文, 24:2, 187-214\r\n趙岡( 1983), “也談台灣的儲蓄傾向”, 天下雜誌, 民國72年7月, 95-99\r\n劉壽祥(1982), “利率與儲蓄性存款之關係”, 中華經濟研究院經濟專論, (17)\r\n劉展宏、張金鶚(1997), “購屋貸款提前清償速度之研究─以新竹地區為例”, 中華民國住宅學會第六屆年會論文集, 187\r\n薛立敏、李璧君( 1998), “台灣地區房價、住宅權屬與儲蓄間關係之探討”, 中華民國住宅學會第七屆年會論文集, 21-42\r\n薛立敏、陳琇里( 1997), “台灣一九八○年代住宅自有率變化之探討”, 住宅學報, 第六期, 27-48\r\nBhatia, Kul B. 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(1996), “Interpreting Cointegrating Vectors and Common Stochastic Trends,” Journal of Econometrics, 74, 255-271\r\nYoshikawa, Hiroshi and Fumio Ohtake (1989), “An Analysis of Female Labor Supply, Housing Demand and the Saving Rate in Japan,” European Economic Review, 33, 997-1030 | 描述: | 碩士 國立政治大學 經濟學系 89258022 |
資料來源: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#A2010000183 | 資料類型: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | 學位論文 |
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