古巴飛彈危機：外交信息傳遞觀點

Abstract

被視為冷戰時期中最危險的古巴飛彈危機事件，持續吸引學者的研究興趣長達近半個世紀。特別是Kennedy 白宮錄音帶此新證據之解密，對研究者而言呈現出重要的洞見暨困惑。儘管如此，鮮少研究透過外交信息傳遞之面向來探究此一歷史事件。信息傳遞此一針對國際危機解決之途徑認為，當面對國際衝突時，國家會傳達其對手具外交標的之「語言」與「非語言」信息。就某種意義而論，決策者釋出之每一個信息與反信息，均意謂其自身策略性之意圖與關乎對手信息之反應。本文透過國際情境、菁英決策，以及外交信息傳遞等三個面向，針對古巴飛彈危機期間所發生的事件作出分析。本研究指出：美國政治菁英以一種「集體迷思」的方式互動，並從中理解情境因素、解譯蘇聯的外交信息及作出信息傳遞之決定以因應對手競爭性行為。最後，研究發現指出外交信息傳遞對於解決國際衝突之重要意涵。

The Cuban Missile Crisis, one of the most dangerous events of the Cold War, has continued to attract academic attention for almost half a century, especially with the release of new evidence in the Kennedy tapes that presents researchers with insights as well as puzzles. Nevertheless, few, if any, studies have explored this historic event from a diplomatic signaling perspective. The signaling approach to international crisis resolution posits that in the face of international conflicts, a state disseminates verbal and/or nonverbal signals, carrying diplomatic objectives, to its opponents. In a sense, every signal or countersignal sent by the decision maker connotes strategic intention or reactions to the adversary’s signals. In this study, incidents in the Cuban Missile crisis are analyzed in terms of international context, elite decision-making, and diplomatic signaling. It is found that the political elite of the U.S. interacted, in a groupthink manner, to perceive the contextual factors, decipher the USSR’s signals, and make signaling decisions in response to competitive moves. The findings of this research have implications for signaling to resolve international conflicts.