中位投票者模型與地方公共支出：台灣之實證研究

Abstract

本研究目的在於應用中位投票者模型檢驗台灣的地方公共支出是否反映出多數選民的需求。以台灣省21 個縣市在精省前後12 個年度的歲出資料為研究對象，採用橫斷面與時間序列之追蹤資料（panel data）分析方法，進行實證。先用經濟與社會變數的影響，比較台灣省政府組織與業務精簡（精省）前後的差異性；再加入制度變數、選舉與政黨之政治性變數於模型中，觀察對各類地方公共支出需求的影響。研究結果發現：中位所得、人口對各類公共支出的影響程度顯著，且皆是正向關係，符合預期。分攤稅額的影響，有五項支出具統計顯著性，其中三項呈現負向關係，符合預期，但也出現兩項支出為正向關係的情形。補助款對各類公共支出的影響，顯示精省前後差異甚大。人口密度僅對社會福利支出、社區發展及環保支出具統計顯著性。精省前後之影響，除經濟發展支出外，確有顯著的不同。地方選舉年對總支出、教育科學文化支出、社會福利支出具統計顯著性，皆呈正向關係。縣市政府與上級政府是否同屬一個政黨執政對支出的影響，顯示社會福利支出存在「分立政府」顯著較「一致政府」為高的情形。也初步發現補助款與公共支出之間並無顯著存在所謂的「捕蠅紙效應」（flypaper effect）現象。整體而言，中位投票者模型的理論架構統計上確可解釋台灣省21 個縣市地方公共支出的行為，相當程度上也反映出多數選民的需求關係。

This paper attempts to examine the demand of local public expenditure in Taiwan by applying the median voter model and uses 21 prefectures of Taiwan with their panel data from 1992 to 2003 as the samples. The findings of the empirical results indicated that the explanatory variables of median income and population are significant and their signs are positive as expected. Tax share variable has shown a negative sign in three categories of expenditures which agree with a priori expectations. The effect of grant variable on spending differs significantly while compared before and after the downsizing of Taiwan Provincial Government. Population density variable has been shown significant in social welfare expenditure, community development and environment protection expenditure. While the variables like government organization reform, election year and party factor are included in the model as dummy variables and the results have also shown significant effects on the some of local public expenditures. In brief, the theoretical framework of median voter model provides a good explanation of the local public expenditures and reflects the majority voters’ preference of 21 prefectures of Taiwan. This finding seems implied the current public expenditures allocation in some ways had reflected appropriately the local demand and local interests.