分析師預測與管理當局預測對於企業評價之相對有用性：發佈時機與先後順序

Abstract

財務預測是投資人進行投資決策時的一項重要參考依據，然而財務預測具有高度的未來不確定性，所以其可靠性可能亦較低。基於這個原因，財務預測是否有用，一直以來即為財務預測使用者所關心的議題。一般來說，分析師和管理當局預測為投資人主要的兩個財務預測資訊來源，本研究透過Ohlson (1995) 模型來探討分析師預測與管理當局預測於企業評價之相對有用性，本研究之主要發現有二：第一、管理當局的第一次（最後一次）財測對於股價的解釋能力高（低）於分析師的第一次（最後一次）財測。第二、就大公司的年度最後一次財測而言，分析師預測對股價的解釋能力較高，而就小公司的年度第一次財測而言，管理當局預測對於股價的解釋能力較高，然而大（小）公司第一次（最後一次）的分析師預測和管理當局預測之有用性則無顯著差異。

Since financial forecasts reflect the management’s best estimations of a company’s future financial position, operation results, and changes in cash flows, they are usually regarded as more relevant to the financial statement users. Therefore, the usefulness of financial forecasts to investors has been a crucial issue to the accounting academic. In general, there are two major sources of financial forecasts: one from the managements and the other one from the analysts. This study adopts the Ohlson (1995) model to examine the relative usefulness of analyst and management forecasts in the business valuation process. The empirical results reveal two major findings. First, managements’ forecasts are more (less) useful than analysts’ forecasts when the forecasts are made in the beginning (at the end) of the year. Second, firm size and the timing of forecasts influence the relative usefulness of management and analyst forecasts in different way. For large firms, for example, analysts’ forecasts are more useful than managements’ forecasts when the forecasts are made at the end of the year. For small firms, on the other hand, managements’ forecasts are more useful than analysts’ forecasts when the forecasts are made in the beginning of the year.