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Title: 企業生命週期、產業別與股權評價:Real Option與Ohlson Model之比較
Other Titles: Business Life Cycle, Industry and Equity Valuation:The Comparison between Real Option and Ohlson Models
Authors: 吳博欽;鄭哲惠
Wu, Po-Chin;Cheng, Che-Hui
Keywords: Ohlson評價模式;實質選擇權評價模式;企業生命週期;固定效果模型
Ohlson valuation model;Real option valuation model;Business life cycle;Fixed effect model
Date: 2006-07
Issue Date: 2016-05-31 16:26:16 (UTC+8)
Abstract: 本文以我國上市電子公司為對象,考量不同生命週期階段及電子次產業,以比較Ohlson (1995)的會計基礎評價模式及Schwartz and Moon (2001)的實質選擇權評價模式的績效。理論上實質選擇權模型適用於評估成長期公司價值;Ohlson評價模式適用於評估成熟期公司價值。實證結果發現,劃分企業生命週期後,雖然Ohlson評價模式與實質選擇權評價模式均以評估成長期公司價值為最佳;惟實質選擇權評價模式並未明確地優於Ohlson評價模式。對於成熟期公司而言,Ohlson模式的評價結果亦未優於實質選擇權評價模式。若進一步將電子業區分為七個次產業,則不同次產業所適用的評價模式也不同。處於成長期的通訊網路公司適用實質選擇權評價模式,而成熟期的通訊網路公司則適用Ohlson評價模式;成熟期的IC產製公司反而較成長期的IC產製公司適用實質選擇權評價模式。因此,在選用評價模式時,除了考慮企業所處的生命週期階段外,產業別因素也應納入考量,以期獲得更精確的評估績效。
This paper tries to compare the eatimation results derived from Ohlson (1995) valuation model and Schwartz and Moon (2001) real option pricing model and proves whether the results depend on different business life cycle stage and the characteristic of industry. The empirical results show that it is not absoluately suitable for the electronic companies in the growth (or maturity) stage to use real option model to evaluate their value than use Ohlson valuation model and vice versa. Moreover, if we further split the electronic industry into seven sub-industries above results will become more divergent. In spite of this, we must add business life cycle and the characteristic of industry into each valuation model to approve the evaluation performance.
Relation: 會計評論, 43,95-121頁
International Journal of Accounting Studies
Data Type: article
Appears in Collections:[會計評論] 期刊論文

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