台灣產業的工作重配置與勞工毛交換率

Abstract

本文觀察台灣產業別的工作流動與勞工流動，相較於以往文獻只針對製造業，本文納入服務業的討論。首先建構各項指標，綜合產業別與年度別工作∕勞工流動的觀察，我們發現廠商需求與供給無時無刻不在進行調整，造成工作不時地汰舊換新與勞工不時地進出勞動市場。由淨就業成長率、工作創造率、和工作汰減率等指標的觀察，我們指認近年來我國產業結構轉型，傳統產業萎縮、以及新興高科技產業與服務業的興起茁壯；也得以指認各產業因市場特性不同而有不同的勞動市場波動。經由年度比較得知一九九四、一九九七兩年勞動市場繁榮，但一九九八年之後勞動市場熱絡趨緩。工作創造與工作汰減於時間上呈現不對稱性的波動，也表現在工作流動與景氣變化同方向變動。而勞工毛交換率的波動較工作重配置劇烈，但較不受景氣好壞的影響。各年度工作重配置率佔勞工毛交換率的比例介於12% 與24% 之間，得知工作的新增與汰減並非造成勞工流動的主因。平均而言，近十年來服務業相對製造業的新創工作較多、而工作汰減較低。進一步以迴歸模型分析影響工作波動與勞工進出的重要因素。迴歸結果得到產業規模越大，工作重配置與勞工毛交換率均較高，但不影響產業的就業成長。產出成長率顯著地提高產業的工作創造、減少汰減、與增加就業成長，但對工作重配置與勞工毛交換率的大小則無顯著影響。高生產力的產業傾向以工作的汰減配置勞動，也有較高的勞工毛交換率。資本密集度與出口比例對工作重配置與勞工毛交換率的影響則不顯著。

Ｔhis paper examines patterns of job flows and worker flows in Taiwanese industries. In addition to manufacturing industries, we include five service industries into our empirical study. We construct seven indexes and investigate the cross-industry and time-series patterns. We find jobs are created and destructed simultaneously due to the dynamic adjustments of firm’s labor demand. At the same time, workers flow into and out from labor market dramatically. By observing these flow indexes, we are able to distinguish declining industries from rising ones, to distinguish volatile industries from stable ones, and to distinguish ups and downs over the business fluctuations. In particular, the labor markets in 1994 and 1997 are prosperous, but decline thereafter. The asymmetry in the time-series volatility of creation and destruction reflects the pro-cyclical nature of job reallocation. Although worker turnover is more volatile than job reallocation, the former is less correlated with business cycles. The share of worker turnover caused by gross job reallocation, varying between 12% and 24%, is relatively small. On average, service sectors are more prosperous than manufacturing sectors. Furthermore, in a regression framework, we analyze the important factors that affect worker flows and job flows. We find that the scale of the industry influences both flows in the same direction but have no effects on employment growth rate. The higher growth rate of industrial production, the higher job creation, the lower job destruction, and the higher employment growth rate is. However, the growth rate has no impact on job reallocation and worker turnover. Industries with higher labor productivity tend to reallocate jobs through job destruction, and also induce a higher worker turnover rate. Capital intensity and export ratio have no effects on both flows.