台灣的產業結構變動，自然失業率，與婦女勞動參與率

Abstract

自從一九六0年代起，台灣的婦女勞動參與率一直呈現短期循環波動的情形。這種勞動市場的波動似乎與台灣近年來的產業結構變動有關。於是本研究採用Lilien (1982) 的方法計算自然失業率，他的自然失業率的計算包含不同部門間勞動需求變動的因素。然後再使用Pancavel (1986) 的方法將婦女勞動參與率對自然失業率做迴歸。研究顯示15～44歲婦女的勞動參與決策對產業結構的變動非常敏感，也就是婦女勞動參與的短期波動深受產業結構變遷的影響。

Taiwan`s female labor force participation rate has revealed cyclical movement in the short run since the 1960s. The cyclical variation in labor market seems related to recent industry structural shifts in Taiwan. We adopt Lilien`s (1982) method to calculate the natural rate of unemployment, taking into account the shifts of demand for labor among different sectors. We then use Pancavel`s (1986) method to run the regression of female labor force participation on the natural rate of unemployment. We find that the decision of female laborers is significantly sensitive to sectoral shifts, especially for the group of age 15-44.