世紀之交的俄羅斯東亞政策 —析論俄中兩國「戰略協作伙伴關係」 之運作現況

Abstract

本文主要在探討俄國東亞政策在其對外政策中所扮演的角色，再藉由俄中關係的發展趨勢來進一步闡述俄國東亞政策。俄國亞太政策的主要目標，為集中全力融入亞太區域經濟體系，以發展俄國遠東地區經濟，並經由積極參與亞太整合過程，確保俄國能擁有參與制定遊戲規則的權利。 儘管地理上俄國處於亞太地區，但現今似乎仍無法成為亞太地區的主要成員。原因包括俄國內部各方勢力對外交政策方向缺乏共識，再加上中央政府需應對各方面的複雜情勢，再加上俄國領導層沒有及時意識到和亞太國家合作的重要意義，導致俄國長久以來在外交政策上忽略亞太地區。另外，俄國忽視亞太地區的另一項重要因素為俄國傳統上的西方傾向。 蘇聯解體後的俄羅斯外交大致可劃分為三個主要階段：1992-1995年以俄國外長柯茲列夫（Andrei Kozyrev）為代表所執行所謂「一邊倒」的外交政策；1996-1999以普利馬可夫（Evgeniy Primakov）外長為代表推行東西方並重的所謂「全方位」外交政策；2000年以來以普欽（Vladimir Putin）總統為代表所執行更加重視獨立國家國協與強調在東西方間更加平衡的外交政策。 俄國經過1990年代初期對外政策向西方傾斜後，在普利馬可夫年代開始展開全方位外交，相較於前段時期亦可稱為較重視亞洲國家，俄國尤其重視中國在區域內所扮演的角色。俄中兩國在1996年4月簽署「中俄聯合聲明」，宣布決心發展「平等信任的、面向21世紀的戰略協作伙伴關係」。 雖然俄中兩國關係日漸密切，但雙邊也存在不穩定的因素。例如兩國與美國關係的好壞可能會影響俄中彼此關係。其次，兩國對於如何在國際上取得大國地位或在國際上發揮影響力的看法與採取的方法亦不同。再者，兩個相鄰大國基於歷史因素及現實地緣政治考量，在潛意識上具有相互防範的心理因素。

This article mainly discusses the role of Russian East-Asia policy in its foreign policy, and focuses on the Russian East-Asia policy by the trend and development of bilateral relations between Russia and China. The main goal of Russian Asia-Pacific policy is to merge into Asia-Pacific regional economic system, and to develop its huge territory in the Far Eastern Area. By actively participating in the process of Asia-Pacific economic integration, Russia can firmly get the right to enact regulations. In spite of being located in the Asia-Pacific region, Russia still can not become one of the main members in the Region. The reasons comprise the lack of consensus of foreign policy in the nation, the unawareness of the importance of the Region, and the traditional west-oriented trend in its foreign policy etc., resulting in the ignorance of east-oriented foreign policy. By contrast with pro-west foreign policy in the first half of 90s, Russia began its “overall” foreign policy in Primakov’s era . During this period, Russia stressed the importance of Asian countries, and especially chose China as its “partner”. By signing several treaties and declarations, and visiting periodically by the heads of both nations, Russia and China consolidate their partnership. Although the relations between the two nations are getting closer, there are unsteady factors. For example, the relations of the two nations respectively with U.S. will affect the other. Secondly, the two nations have different opinions and methods concerning how to get a “big power” position and how to get its benefit from it. Thirdly, based on the history and practical geopolitics, the two neighboring nations possess the factors of mutual defense subconsciously.