從「權力轉移」理論的動態觀點論中華民國嚇阻戰略

Abstract

嚇阻戰略一直是中華民國軍事戰略構想的基石之一。依據權力轉移理論，國際體系中的權力階層是動態的，國家以不同的速率成長。當一個國家其綜合國力增強而不滿於現狀時將會挑戰現有權力架構，而在挑戰者超越防衛者的過程中極可能引發衝突爆發戰爭。過去十五年美、中、台權力有所轉變，首先由台灣挑戰中共，中共挑戰美國，美國則聯合台灣與日本防衛中共的崛起。本文乃探討美中台三方權力的轉移如何挑戰台灣嚇阻戰略的有效性與評估台灣可能的因應策略。

The deterrence strategy has always been a corner stone in the Republic of China’s（ROC’s）military strategic thinking. According to the Power Transitions theory, the power hierarchy of the international system is dynamic. States grow at different pace, when a country’s power is increasing, it will be dissatisfied with the status quo, hence will challenge the present power hierarchy. The probability of conflict is greatly increased when the challenger’s power is surpassing the defender’s. In the past 15 years, the power relation among America, China and Taiwan has changed. At the beginning, Taiwan challenged China, China challenged America, and then America allied itself with Taiwan and Japan in order to prevent the rising of China. This article discusses how the power transitions among America, China and Taiwan challenges the effectiveness of Taiwan’s deterrence strategy, it also evaluates the possible counter strategies Taiwan may take.