台俄經貿關係發展的限制與機會

Abstract

台俄經貿關係結構性地受制於政治與非政治的障礙因素。北京的一個中國原則是箇中最具支配性的限制因素之一。然而台商與台灣政府的努力已獲致一定的突破與進展，台俄經貿關係已見正面發展。然台俄經貿關係的開展多少仍須仰賴一個更大場景的發展，即：俄羅斯領導階層逐鹿亞太經濟之雄心壯志與偉大夢想的實現。在追逐亞太經貿發展的過程，台俄經貿關係自然因此受惠。結構性限制存在著；但人為努力即便無法讓障礙立即消失或障礙永遠不會消失，總能盡其可能地將空間撐大。而透過台商的穿針引線，讓台俄中三角經貿關係更進一步融合在一起，使經濟利益高出一切，或許也是降低或縮小北京政治份量的一條務實與實用之路。

The economic relations between Taiwan and Russia have been structurally constrained by both political and non-political barriers. Beijing’s “one China principle” is one of the most dominant factors which limit Russo-Taiwanese developments. Nevertheless, both Taiwanese businesspeople and Taiwanese government have made some breakthroughs and achievements. There have seen positive developments in Russo-Taiwanese economic exchanges. The prospects of Russo-Taiwanese economic relations will more or less rely on the development of a broader landscape: An ambitious Asian dream made by Russian leaders owing to the strong economic desire innate in Russia’s Far Eastern policy, along with vibrant Asian economic developments. Under these circumstances, Russo-Taiwanese economic relations will gain benefits accordingly. Structural limits are already out there; but subjective efforts may expand the limited space as large as possible even though the given barriers will not disappear in a sudden, or they may last forever. To put the primacy on economy, the approach seeing an uprising fusion of triangular economic exchanges amongTaiwan, Russia, and China, may be a realistic and pragmatic option to reduce or minimize Beijing’s political weights during the dynamic process.