中國大陸的改革路徑與意涵

Abstract

在福山(Francis Fukuyama)提出[歷史的終結]十五年後, 歷史似乎並未走向終結. 同時, 歷史告訴我們西方式現代化的發展途徑仍然不斷地受到挑戰. 近年來, 兼顧經濟成長與政治穩定的[中國模式]日益引起人們的關注, 隨著中國國力進一步增長, 這種發展模式對某些轉型和開發中國家可能會更具有吸引力. 本文主要分析中國經濟與政治轉型. 本文第二節論述中國改革的主要特點; 第三節檢視中國改革缺陷與侷限性; 本文第四節探討中國改革的模式對其他開發中國家的啟示.

This paper analyzes the Chinese model of gradual transition from a planned to a market-oriented economy and the shift from hard to soft authoritarianism. The first section of the paper examines the major features of the Chinese path of reform including (1)growth with prolonged stability, (2)soft-authoritarianism, (3)incremental economic reform with delayed political liberalization, and (4)an inclusionary dominant party system. The second part of the paper enumerates the weaknesses of the Chinese reform strategy. This article holds that despite achievements of the Chinese reform, the reform has serious limitations. The government largely failed to implement significant political reforms, and because the political reform has lagged behind economic reforms, rent-seeking and corruption have become institutionalized in the transition process. To mitigate those thorny problems, the government often resorts to traditional administrative measures that cause the economy`s dynamic growth to come to a halt and retard institutional development. Essentially, Beijing avoided the pains at the beginning of the reform but is paying the long-term price now. The third part of the article deals with the implications of the Chinese reforms for other transition and developing countries. The Chinese reform has resulted in fast and continuous growth. In the aftermath of the failure of Yeltsin`s shock therapy, some argue that China might have invented a preferable approach, i.e. gradual transition to a market economy. The article concludes that due to different initial conditions from reform and unique historical, cultural, and external factors, China cannot serve as a comprehensive blueprint-in terms of policy measures and performance criteria used to evaluate those policies--for other transition and developing countries. It is insufficient to suggest that the Chinese economic miracle will be repeated in other developing countries.