Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/99112
題名: 兩岸外人直接投資主要來源國資金互動關係與產業結構衝擊影響之分析
其他題名: An Analysis on the Interrelationship among FDI Capital Sources and the Impact on Industrial Structure between Taiwan and Mainland China
作者: 劉祥熹;王麗惠
Liu, Hsiang-hsi;Wang, Li-hui
關鍵詞: 外人直接投資; 誤差修正模型; 衝擊反應函數; 脫離產業化
Foreign Direct Investment; Vector Error Correction Model; Impulse Response Function; De-industrialization
日期: Mar-2006
上傳時間: 19-Jul-2016
摘要: 本研究期間為一九九五年第3季至二00四年第4季, 採時間序列分析兩岸引進外資互動動態關係. 本研究採考慮長期趨勢之誤差修正模型(VECM)探討中國大陸引進外資對台灣金融帳三大構面之因果關係, 再以VECM分析中國大陸主要資金來源國(地區)-香港, 美國, 日本, 韓國及新加坡, 是否因為投資中國大陸而減少對台灣投資. 初步實證發現中國大陸主要資金來源國(地區)進入中國大陸投資, 對進入台灣投資影響顯示[互為增補]. 然而金融帳之中[直接投資]的部分, 中國大陸引進外資對台灣引進外資的影響是負面的, 台灣金融帳之[直接投資], [間接投資], [其他投資]資金流量受中國大陸引進外資之影響方向各異. 鑑於全球外人直接投資及台商到中國大陸投資之區位選擇, 受兩岸產業結構發展之影響, 因而進一步分析中國大陸主要資金來源國(地區)對大陸投資與對台灣投資的互動情形, 及其對產業構衝擊之影響, 乃屬必要. 根據衝擊反應函數實證結果指出, 全球外人直接投資及台商到中國大陸投資, 受兩岸產業結構發展之影響, 各國外資對中國大陸初級, 次級產業之衝擊較大, 對第三級產業影響微乎其微. 但是外資對台灣服務業之產業結構產生一定程度之衝擊, 其於兩岸產業結構及營運願景不同, 本研究結果亦發現, 中國大陸引進外資對台灣產業結構之轉換影響不必然是負面的. 未來台灣產業結構之發展, 外資引進與相關政策訂定必然扮演重要的因素. 本研究之實證結果對兩岸經濟體系尋求全球定位, 亦能提供訂定外資政策之參考資訊.
We examine the causal relationship of cross-strait FDI based quarterly time series data over the 1995Q3-2004Q4. This study attempts to detect the relationship of Taiwan and Mainland China capital sources and the impacts on the industrial structure. Considering a possible bi-directional link of capital inflows, this paper investigates the dynamic causal links of FDI cross-strait by vector error correction model. The statistical analysis of the financial account (balance of payment) reveals two-way causality between inward FDI of Mainland China and Taiwan. The influence is negative. Nevertheless, other types of capital flows present different results. Furthermore, innovative accounting (impulse response function and variance decomposition) was applied to analyze the effects on different inward foreign direct investment(from Hong Kong, US, Japan, Korean, Singapore) for both Taiwan and Mainland China. Foreign capital flows has had a certain degree of impact on primary and secondary industries in Mainland China and more on service the industry of Taiwan. In general, the results of this study provide important information or policy implications for assisting the economic transition for Taiwan and Mainland China.
關聯: 中國大陸研究49(1),75-110頁
資料類型: article
Appears in Collections:期刊論文

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