當和平崛起遇上台灣問題：菁英認知下的中國安全戰略

Abstract

本文嘗試由國內角度，特別是中國領導人及部份政治菁英對中國所處的國際安全環境提出的主觀理解，來分析改革開放以來中國政府定調安全戰略的過程。對國家安全的解釋與定位一直是中共政治菁英在中國逐漸溶入國際政治與經濟體系過程中企圖保障其權力及利益所運用的工具。領導人與戰略學者等政治菁英所「認知」的外在環境基本上是受到兩個因素影響：第一是對中國外在安全環境的評估；第二是中國在國際社會的自我定位。二者交互影響，構成領導人心目中對中國國家發展方向與國際地位的主觀期待。討論重點將放在1990 年代中期之後中國對外戰略的一些新發展趨勢，以及中國崛起戰略與台灣問題之間的關聯。

The purpose of this article is to analyze how Chinese elites interpret China’s external security environment and how such assessments influence the formulation of China’s security strategy. Chinese leaders and strategic analysts have utilized power to identify the external security environment—being it peaceful or hostile—and the security strategy they make to strengthen their power and interests in the society. The article assumes that elite cognitions of the external environment are determined by two factors: assessment of external security environment, and their subjective identification of China’s role and status in the international system. Connections between both factors constitute a fundamental force modulating the security considerations of political elites. The article also analyzes the debates about the strategy of China’s rise since the mid-1990s and its connections to the Taiwan issue.