經濟整合與政治衝突的關聯性─以兩岸關係為例

Abstract

近年來隨著兩岸經貿往來日益頻繁，台灣與中國大陸已經成為非常重要的貿易與投資夥伴。然而，兩岸間不穩定的政治情勢對兩岸經貿交流的正常化造成一定程度的影響，同時兩岸政治情勢亦深受雙方經貿投資行為的影響。本文的目的，以1996年至2008年季資料嘗試利用經濟計量的方法來釐清兩岸經濟整合與政治衝突可能的政經互動關係，經由實證研究的分析結果，我們發現台商赴大陸投資與台灣對大陸出口之間呈現正向顯著的雙向因果關係，表示投資帶動出口，出口亦進一步帶動投資。另一方面，國內對兩岸關係友善程度增加對於大陸領導人對台友善的政治態度有顯著正面的影響，表示當國內民眾普遍認為兩岸關係較為友善時，這樣的反應將使得中國領導人對台政治態度回以善意。綜合上述結果顯示，經濟變數僅影響經濟變數，政治變數僅影響政治變數，政經分離兩者並無直接的因果關係。在1996年至2008年台灣對中國大陸採取對立的政治態度與管控的經貿政策，但兩岸存在產業分工的市場經濟利益應是造成政經分離的主因。

Since the surge of the cross-strait trade and investment in the 1990s, Taiwan and China have become major trading partners with each other. However, the persistent political conflicts across the Taiwan Strait have significantly influenced the trade flow of the two sides, and increasing close economic tie between the two has also generated profound effect on their political situation. The purpose of the paper is to empirically test the causal relationship between economic integration and political conflicts by using quarterly data from Taiwan and China pertaining to the 1996-2008 period. The estimation results show that there is a significant positive bi-lateral causality between Taiwanese firms’ investment in China and Taiwan’s export to China implying that foreign direct investment induced exports and exports attracted foreign direct investment, while the improvement in the cross-strait relations perceived by Taiwanese people has a positive causal effect on Chinese leaders’ political friendly response. These results imply that no causal relationship between economic tie and political tension, i.e., economic variables are separated from political factors. Taiwan’s restricted trade policy with political confrontation policy against China during the 1996-2008 period and the economic benefits through cross-strait industrial division of labor were likely the major reasons causing the separation of economic tie and political conflicts between Taiwan and China.