固權與發展？胡錦濤反貪腐邏輯分析

Abstract

胡錦濤進行反政治腐敗，僅為維繫中共政權的合法性嗎？或尚有其他考量呢？本文認為胡錦濤不僅藉反腐鞏固自身權力，且要避免因反腐而損及經濟發展。經由28名省部級貪官為案例進行分析後發現，胡錦濤反政治腐敗的效應，符合「鞏固權力」和「發展經濟」兩種邏輯。\\r在「鞏固權力」的邏輯上，胡錦濤查辦的28名省部級貪官，94%屬開鍘立威型，4.8%屬排除異己型，1.2%屬淚斬馬謖型，因此可知胡錦濤權力日益鞏固。九成四屬開鍘立威型，除符合中共反腐策略強調心理戰的威嚇效果外，也顯示胡錦濤並未全面拔除前朝人馬，代表中國菁英政治的確屬於「權力平衡模式」。在「發展經濟」的邏輯上，透過貪腐印象指數的變化可知，胡錦濤執政以來中國貪腐情形乃先惡化後改善，顯示在延續「地方發展型國家」的經濟成長路線時，已造成黨內紀律約束軟化，不過經濟發展倒是呈現逐年成長。歸納胡錦濤兼顧反腐與經濟發展的作為，主要有四項特徵：對象集中在地方幹部；區域分散於東部與中部；打擊最力的類型為藉地受賄型；未查辦經濟自由化與全球化面向的政治腐敗。

Is Hu fought against corruption just to maintain the regime legitimacy? Or other purposes he may have in mind? This paper argues that Hu is not only strengthened power through anti-corruption, but also avoid jeopardizing the economy development.This paper examines 28 provincial officers as case study and found that the effects of Hu’s anti-corruption are conformed to “Consolidate Power” theory and “Develop Economy” theory. In “Consolidate Power” theory, 94% of 28 provincial officers who were investigated by Hu is categorized as “kai zha li wei” type, 4.8% as “pai chu yi ji”type and 1.2% as “lei zhan ma su” type. This truly shows that Hu is strongly consolidating his power and China elite politic appears to a “Power Balance” model. In “Develop Economy” theory, CPI changes show corruption is improved after deteriorated since Hu’s ruling; however, economy development is growing year by year.There are four characteristics of Hu’s double conductions on anti-corruption and economy development: 1. focusing on local officers. 2. scattering in western and central region. 3. “ji di shou hui” type takes the major numbers. 4. Corruption in economy liberalization and globalization aspect is not investigated.