制度化下的中共菁英晉升：接班人栽培的觀點

Abstract

本文以社會流動觀點出發，透過對菁英晉升模式的歸納來理解中共幹部任命的特色。在當前制度化的脈絡下，筆者認為中共的幹部任命已出現「接班人栽培」的思維：包括「早期挑選」與「能力測試」兩面向。從菁英流動來看，包括被甄拔的年齡以及工作的輪調與安排，可視為黨如此措施的具體表徵。本研究以十五屆至十七屆中央委員會成員為研究案例，證實了接班人栽培的相關成分能系統性的解釋中共菁英晉升的結果。此外，本文也嘗試以如此的接班人栽培概念，界定2012 年中共十八大可能晉升的菁英群體

Based upon the perspective of social mobility theory, this paper attempts to identify the nature of CCP’s cadre appointment system by depicting the pattern of elite promotion. Deriving from the current political context that is being institutionalized, the paper proposes a notion of successor cultivation combining the two aspects—early selection and capability testing. From the perspective of elite mobility, the age for being selected and work arrangement/transfer would be a battery of representations under this notion. The empirical evidence of this study is based on the CC members for the period from the 15th to 17th Party Congresses, and the author confirms how the two parts of successor cultivation can explain the outcomes of elite promotion. Following the notion of successor cultivation, this paper also suggests several candidates for leadership promotion at the CCP’s 18th Party Congress in 2012.