中國大陸金融二元性與城鄉收入差距之共整合分析

Abstract

中國大陸經濟自改革開放以來經歷了快速的成長，但城鄉收入差距卻隨之擴大；金融體系亦在快速發展之後呈現巨大的城鄉差距，農村金融規模與效率皆遠低於城市而形成金融的城鄉二元性。此金融體系的城鄉差距可能為城鄉收入差距惡化的重要原因之一。本文以城鄉金融效率之比與城鄉居民人均收入之比進行共整合分析發現，金融二元性與城鄉收入不均之間具有顯著的正向關係；Granger因果檢定結果亦顯示金融二元性會Granger影響城鄉收入差距。由此可知，欲減少城鄉收入差距，應致力於促進城鄉金融效率的均衡。

The Chinese economy has experienced rapid growth, accompanied by the enlarged urban-rural inequality, since the open and revolution in 1978. The development of the financial system has played an essential role in the progress. However, significant urban-rural inequality, particularly in the financial efficiency, is embodied in the Chinese financial system. The financial efficiency in the rural areas has remained at a much lower level than the urban areas in the past 30 years. By using the data from 1985 to 2008, we examine whether the urban-rural income gap is cointegrated with the urbanrural financial gap. We find that the urban-rural financial gap is significantly cointegrated with the urban-rural income gap. The Granger causality analysis also shows that the urban-rural financial gap Granger causes the urban-rural income gap. As a result, the improvement of the rural financial efficiency can effectively help reduce the urban-rural income inequality.