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Title: 中國區域貿易倡議及其於亞洲的影響
China's Regional Trade Initiatives and Their Impact in Asia
Authors: 羅意新
Coleman, Robert
Contributors: 林左裕
Lin, Tsoyu Calvin
Robert Coleman
Keywords: 國際貿易
international trade
trade relationships
trade initiatives
East Asia
Southeast Asia
trade intensity
market concentration
trade diversification
trade openness
Date: 2016
Issue Date: 2016-08-09 14:40:24 (UTC+8)
Abstract: 中國在亞洲的重量級角色在近年來已受到國際矚目,但儘管多方學者在研究該國的興起時對其政治與經濟勢力已有著墨,對於中國在亞洲地區貿易的牽動卻不大關注。
China’s evolving role in Asia as a regional player has caught the attention of the international community. Many scholars have focused on a range of considerations regarding China’s rise, such as its expanding economic and political presence in Asia; however, insufficient focus has been applied to the effects of Chinese trade in the region. This paper examines the evolution of China’s trade with its East and Southeast (EA&SEA) neighbors from 1992 to 2014 and how these trade relationships have changed. It accomplishes this by examining several indicators, including trade openness, market concentration, and trade intensity for the selected countries and China. This paper’s results indicate that EA&SEA countries and China have experienced significant changes to their trade relationships from 1992 to 2014. There has been substantial growth in the trade openness for the majority of countries in the EA&SEA region, in terms of both trade to GDP ratio and in terms of trade policy. Additionally, relative to China, the EA&SEA region is now less diversified than it was in 1992. Lastly, the number of the EA&SEA countries with high trade intensity with China has increased, as well as the degree of trade intensity of EA&SEA countries. This paper concludes, that as a result of changes in trade from 1992 to 2014 and the evolving trade relationship between China and EA&SEA countries, EA&SEA countries are, on average, more vulnerable to trade and trade dependent on China. Keeping in mind China’s past and present trade relationships with EA&SEA countries is important when considering the future of the region. With the development of China’s new initiatives such as “One Belt, One Road,” evaluating and possibly reducing trade dependency is likely now more than ever, a wise endeavor.
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