Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://ah.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/99866


Title: 中國區域貿易倡議及其於亞洲的影響
China's Regional Trade Initiatives and Their Impact in Asia
Authors: 羅意新
Coleman, Robert
Contributors: 林左裕
Lin, Tsoyu Calvin
羅意新
Robert Coleman
Keywords: 國際貿易
貿易關係
貿易倡議
中國
東亞
東南亞
貿易密集度
市場集中度
貿易多元化
貿易開放度
international trade
trade relationships
trade initiatives
China
East Asia
Southeast Asia
trade intensity
market concentration
trade diversification
trade openness
Date: 2016
Issue Date: 2016-08-09 14:40:24 (UTC+8)
Abstract: 中國在亞洲的重量級角色在近年來已受到國際矚目,但儘管多方學者在研究該國的興起時對其政治與經濟勢力已有著墨,對於中國在亞洲地區貿易的牽動卻不大關注。
為此本文特地透過中國與東亞及東南亞諸國的貿易開放度、市場集中度與貿易強度等指標,研究亞洲地區從1992年至2014年間貿易關係的演變。而研究結果說明各國的貿易關係的確在這期間有發生顯著的變化,其效果不論是在貿易於國內生產總值的占比上或是在貿易政策的開放性上都可見一斑。此外,與中國保持高貿易強度的國家數量不僅增加了,各國各自的貿易強度也有所增長,但唯獨諸國的貿易多樣性卻比在1992年時低。
本文認為,基於1992至2014年間亞洲貿易概況及各國間貿易關係的演變,東亞及東南亞諸國如今受貿易的牽制以及對於中國貿易的依賴性均高於昔日。因此,在考量亞洲地區的未來時,中國與各國間貿易關係的演變就成為不可疏忽的一點。有鑑於如中國「一帶一路」等措施,各國對於自身對中國貿易的依賴性之審慎評估和迅速排除將是下一個難題。
China’s evolving role in Asia as a regional player has caught the attention of the international community. Many scholars have focused on a range of considerations regarding China’s rise, such as its expanding economic and political presence in Asia; however, insufficient focus has been applied to the effects of Chinese trade in the region. This paper examines the evolution of China’s trade with its East and Southeast (EA&SEA) neighbors from 1992 to 2014 and how these trade relationships have changed. It accomplishes this by examining several indicators, including trade openness, market concentration, and trade intensity for the selected countries and China. This paper’s results indicate that EA&SEA countries and China have experienced significant changes to their trade relationships from 1992 to 2014. There has been substantial growth in the trade openness for the majority of countries in the EA&SEA region, in terms of both trade to GDP ratio and in terms of trade policy. Additionally, relative to China, the EA&SEA region is now less diversified than it was in 1992. Lastly, the number of the EA&SEA countries with high trade intensity with China has increased, as well as the degree of trade intensity of EA&SEA countries. This paper concludes, that as a result of changes in trade from 1992 to 2014 and the evolving trade relationship between China and EA&SEA countries, EA&SEA countries are, on average, more vulnerable to trade and trade dependent on China. Keeping in mind China’s past and present trade relationships with EA&SEA countries is important when considering the future of the region. With the development of China’s new initiatives such as “One Belt, One Road,” evaluating and possibly reducing trade dependency is likely now more than ever, a wise endeavor.
Reference: About UNCTAD. (2016). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). Retrieved from http://unctad.org/en/Pages/AboutUs.aspx
Aghion, Philippe, & Howitt. (1992). A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction. Econometrica, 60(2), 323–351. http://doi.org/10.2307/2951599
Alesina, A., Spolaore, E., & Wacziarg, R. (2005). Chapter 23 Trade, Growth and the Size of Countries. Handbook of Economic Growth, 1(SUPPL. PART B), 1499–1542. http://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-0684(05)01023-3
Aristotle. (n.d.). Nicomachean Ethics, Book I. Retrieved from http://classics.mit.edu/Aristotle/nicomachaen.1.i.html
Asian Development Bank. (2013). Beyond Factory Asia Beyond Factory Asia.
Blinnikov, M. S. (2011). A geography of Russia and its neighbors. Guilford Press.
Brawley, M. R. (2010). Political Economy and Grand Strategy: A neoclassical realist view. Routledge.
Briguglio, L., Cordina, G., Farrugia, N., & Vella, S. (2009). Economic Vulnerability and Resilience: Concepts and Measurements. Oxford Development Studies, Vol. 37(No. 3), 229–247.
Brown, A. (1947). Applied economics aspects of the world economy in war and peace. London: G. Allen & Unwin.
Cabrillac, B. (2004). A Bilateral Trade Agreement Between Hong Kong and China: CEPA. Http://chinaperspectives.revues.org, (54).
David, H. L. (2007). A guide to measures of trade openness and policy, 1–39.
Escaith, H., & Maurer, A. (2015). International Trade Statistics 2015. WTO International Trade Statistics.
Fuchs, E., & Stuchtey, B. (2002). Across Cultural Borders: Historiography in Global Perspective. Rowman & Littlefield. Retrieved from https://books.google.com/books?id=4wtBb5sWLyYC&pgis=1
Global Economic Prospects. (2010). Washington D.C.
Houghton-Mifflin. (1997). The Houghton Mifflin Dictionary of Geography: Places and Peoples of the World. The Houghton Mifflin Dictionary of Geography: Places and Peoples of the World.
Ikeda, Mondale, Perry, & Usui. (1996). The Japan-U.S. Special Action Committee (SACO) Interim Report. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, 1–3. Retrieved from http://www.mofa.go.jp/region/n-america/us/security/seco.html
Kojima, K. (1964). The pattern of international trade among advanced countries. Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, 5(1), 16–36.
Macao Special Administrative Region Economic Services. (2016). Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA).
Mearsheimer, J. J. J. (2001). The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. The Norton Series in World Politics, 1, 555. http://doi.org/10.1177/0095327X0403000409
Miller, T., & Kim, A. B. (2016). Index of Economic Freedom. Washington D.C.
Ministry of Commerce. (2015). China FTA Network. Retrieved from http://fta.mofcom.gov.cn/enarticle/enkorea/enkoreanews/201601/30417_1.html
Reischauer, E. O. (1974). The Sinic World in Perspective. Foreign Affairs; an American Quarterly Review, 52, 341. http://doi.org/10.2307/20038053
Rodrik, D. (2010). Is Chinese Mercantilism Good or Bad for Poor Countries? Project Syndicate. Retrieved from www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/rodrik47/English
Rose, G. (1998). Review: Neoclassical Realism and Theories of Foreign Policy. World Politics, 51(1), 144–172. http://doi.org/10.1017/S0043887100007814
Sanger, D. E. (1991). Philippines orders U.S. to leave strategic navy base at Subic Bay. The New York Times, 1–4. Retrieved from http://www.nytimes.com/1991/12/28/world/philippines-orders-us-to-leave-strategic-navy-base-at-subic-bay.html?pagewanted=all
Shambaugh, D. (2013). China Goes Global, 313.
Smith, A. (1776). Wealth of Nations. Retrieved April 9, 2016, from http://www.bartleby.com/br/01001.html
Snyder, G. H. (2002). Mearsheimer’s World: Offensive Realism and the Sruggle for Security. International Security, 27(1), 149–173.
Stiglitz, J. (2002). Globalization and Its Discontents. W. W. Norton & Company. Retrieved from https://www.princeton.edu/wwac/academic-review/files/561/8.3b_StiglitzCh3_4.doc
Tang, S. (2009). Taking Stock of Neoclassical Realism. International Studies Review, 11(4), 799–803.
UNCTAD. (2012). State of Commodity Dependence 2012. Special Unit on Commodities.
UNCTADstat. (2016). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). Retrieved from http://unctadstat.unctad.org/wds/ReportFolders/reportFolders.aspx?sCS_ChosenLang=en
United Nations Development Programme. (2011). Export Concentration and Export Dependence. Towards Human Resilience: Sustaining MDG Progress in an Age of Economic Uncertainty. Retrieved from http://www.undp.org/content/dam/undp/library/Poverty Reduction/Inclusive development/Towards Human Resilience/Towards_SustainingMDGProgress_Chapter1.pdf
Vohra, R. (2000). China’s path to modernization: a historical review from 1800 to the present. Upper Saddle River N.J.: Prentice Hall. Retrieved from http://books.google.at/books/about/China_s_path_to_modernization.html?id=pOAvAQAAIAAJ&pgis=1
Waltz, K. (1979). The Theory of International Politics. Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, 251. http://doi.org/10.2307/40201892
Waltz, K. (1996). International Politics is Not Foreign Policy. Security Studies, 6(1), 54–57.
Winters, L. A., McCulloch, N., & McKay, A. (2004). Trade Liberalization and Poverty: The Evidence So Far. Journal of Economic Literature, 42(1), 72–115. http://doi.org/10.1257/002205104773558056
WITS. (2010). Types of Tariffs. World Bank. Retrieved from http://wits.worldbank.org/wits/wits/witshelp/Content/Data_Retrieval/P/Intro/C2.Types_of_Tariffs.htm
Wohlforth, W. C. (1993). The Elusive Balance: Power and Perceptions during the Cold War. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
World Bank. (2015a). GDP growth (annual %) | Data | Graph. Retrieved January 8, 2016, from http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG/countries/1W-US?display=graph
World Bank. (2015b). World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS). Retrieved from http://wits.worldbank.org/WITS/WITS/Default-A.aspx?Page=Default
World Bank. (2016). Trade Outcomes Indicators Module (WITS). Retrieved from http://wits.worldbank.org/WITS/WITS/AdvanceQuery/TradeOutcomes/IndicatorDefinition.aspx?Page=Indicator
Description: 碩士
國立政治大學
亞太研究英語碩士學位學程(IMAS)
103926027
Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0103926027
Data Type: thesis
Appears in Collections:[亞太研究英語博/碩士學位學程(IDAS/IMAS) ] 學位論文

Files in This Item:

File SizeFormat
602701.pdf2035KbAdobe PDF0View/Open


All items in 學術集成 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.


社群 sharing