中國區域貿易倡議及其於亞洲的影響

Abstract

中國在亞洲的重量級角色在近年來已受到國際矚目，但儘管多方學者在研究該國的興起時對其政治與經濟勢力已有著墨，對於中國在亞洲地區貿易的牽動卻不大關注。\n 為此本文特地透過中國與東亞及東南亞諸國的貿易開放度、市場集中度與貿易強度等指標，研究亞洲地區從1992年至2014年間貿易關係的演變。而研究結果說明各國的貿易關係的確在這期間有發生顯著的變化，其效果不論是在貿易於國內生產總值的占比上或是在貿易政策的開放性上都可見一斑。此外，與中國保持高貿易強度的國家數量不僅增加了，各國各自的貿易強度也有所增長，但唯獨諸國的貿易多樣性卻比在1992年時低。\n 本文認為，基於1992至2014年間亞洲貿易概況及各國間貿易關係的演變，東亞及東南亞諸國如今受貿易的牽制以及對於中國貿易的依賴性均高於昔日。因此，在考量亞洲地區的未來時，中國與各國間貿易關係的演變就成為不可疏忽的一點。有鑑於如中國「一帶一路」等措施，各國對於自身對中國貿易的依賴性之審慎評估和迅速排除將是下一個難題。

China’s evolving role in Asia as a regional player has caught the attention of the international community. Many scholars have focused on a range of considerations regarding China’s rise, such as its expanding economic and political presence in Asia; however, insufficient focus has been applied to the effects of Chinese trade in the region. This paper examines the evolution of China’s trade with its East and Southeast (EA&SEA) neighbors from 1992 to 2014 and how these trade relationships have changed. It accomplishes this by examining several indicators, including trade openness, market concentration, and trade intensity for the selected countries and China. This paper’s results indicate that EA&SEA countries and China have experienced significant changes to their trade relationships from 1992 to 2014. There has been substantial growth in the trade openness for the majority of countries in the EA&SEA region, in terms of both trade to GDP ratio and in terms of trade policy. Additionally, relative to China, the EA&SEA region is now less diversified than it was in 1992. Lastly, the number of the EA&SEA countries with high trade intensity with China has increased, as well as the degree of trade intensity of EA&SEA countries. This paper concludes, that as a result of changes in trade from 1992 to 2014 and the evolving trade relationship between China and EA&SEA countries, EA&SEA countries are, on average, more vulnerable to trade and trade dependent on China. Keeping in mind China’s past and present trade relationships with EA&SEA countries is important when considering the future of the region. With the development of China’s new initiatives such as “One Belt, One Road,” evaluating and possibly reducing trade dependency is likely now more than ever, a wise endeavor.