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題名 出國觀光旅客需求預測模式建立之研究
作者 李旭煌
Lee, Shiung Hwang
貢獻者 鄭天澤
Cheng, Teng Cher
李旭煌
Lee, Shiung Hwang
關鍵詞 預測模式；平均絕對百分誤差；根均方百分誤差；方向、趨勢變化誤差。
Forecasting Model；MAPE；RMSPE；Direction of Change Error； Trend Change Error
日期 1994
1993
上傳時間 29-四月-2016 15:31:02 (UTC+8)
摘要 自民國69年政府開放國人出國觀光之後，由於國民所得的提高、台幣的升
參考文獻 行政院主計處(民82-83),國民經濟動向統計季報.
行政院主計處(民69-82),中華民國統計月報.
交通部觀光局(民69-83),觀光資料.
吳柏林等(民81),”台灣地區外籍觀光旅客人數預測模式之探討”,第
二屆統計模式與預測系列演講,政大應術所.
徐守德,李鎮旗(民83),”企業銷售預測之方法與實證研究-以台電公
司為例”,管理評論,第13卷,第一期,23-56.
陳敦基(民80),”來華觀光旅客之需求特性與時間序列分析”,民國80
年觀光事業發展學術研討會論文集.
陳敦基(民82),來華語出國觀光旅客人數預測模式建立之研究,交通
部觀光局委託研究報告.
廖啟泰(民78),Minitab使用手冊,台北:儒林書局.


Abraham,B. and Ledolter, J.(1983), Statistical Methods for Forecasting, New York:John Wiley.
Brown, R.G.(1962), Smoothing, Forecasting and Prediction of Discrete Time Serie, Prentice-Hall,Englewood Cliffs,NJ.
Calantone, R.J., Di Benedetto, C.A. and Bojanic,D.(1987).”A Comprehensive Review o The Tourism Forecasting Literature”, Journal of Travel Research, 26(3),28-39.
Cryer,J.D.(1987),Time Series Analysis, 1st ed,Boston:Duxbury Press.
Fritz,R.G., Brandon C. and Xander,J.(1984). “Combining Time-Series and Econometric Forecast of Tourism Activity”, Annals of Tourism Research, 11,219-229.
Madansky, A. (1988), Prescriptions for Working Statisticians ,New York : Spring –Verlag.
Makridakis, S. and Winkler,R.L.(1983),” Average of Forecast : Some Empirical Results”, Management Science,29(9),987-996.
Martin, C.A. and Witt,S.F.(1988),”Substitute Prices in Models of Tourism Demand”, Annalys of Tourism Research,15,2555-268
Martin, C.A. and Witt,S.F.(1989a),”Forecasting Tourism Demand: A Comparison of the Accurary of Several Quantitative Mthods”, International Journal of Forecasting, 5,7-19.
Martin,C.A. and Witt,S.F.(1989b),”Accurary of Econometric Forecasts of Tourism”, Annals of Tourism Research, 16,407-428.
Neter,J., Wasserman, W. and Kutner,M.H.(1985), Applied linear statistical models, 2nd ed, USA:Richard D.Irwin,Inc.
SAS Institute,Inc.(1988), SAS/ETS User’s Guide, Cary,NC.
SAS Institute,Inc.(1988), SAS/STAT User’s Guide,Cary,NC.
Sheldon,P.J. and Var, T.(1985),”Tourism Forecasting:A Review of Empirical Research”,Journal of Forecasting,4(2),183-195.
Uysal, M. and Crompton,J.L.(1984),”Determinants of Demand for International Tourist Flows to Turkey”,Tourism Management, 5(4),288-297.
Vandaele, W. (1983), Applied Time Series and Box-Jenkins Models, New York: Academic Press,Inc.
Wei,Willian.W.S.(1990), Tim Series Analysis-Univariate and Multivariate Methods,New York:Addison-Wesley.
Witt.C.A and Witt,S.F.(1990),”Appraising An Economic Forecasting Model”, Journal of Travel Research, 29(4), 30-34.
Witt,S.F.(1990),”Appraising An Economic Forecasting Model”, Journal of Travel Research, 29(4), 30-34.
Witt,S.F. and Martin, C.A.(1987),”Econometric Models for Forecasting International Tourism Demand”, Journal of Travel Research,26(4),23-30.
Witt,S.F.,Newbould,G.D. and Watkins,A.J. (1992),”Forecasting Domestic Tourism Demand : Application to Las Vegas Arrivals Data”, Journal of Travel Research,36-41.
Witt,S.F. and Witt,C.A. (1991), “Tourism Forecassting : Error Magnitude, Direction of Change Error, and Trend Change Error”, Journal of Travel Research, 30(3), 26-33.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
統計學系
81354012
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002003826
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 鄭天澤zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Cheng, Teng Cheren_US
dc.contributor.author (作者) 李旭煌zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (作者) Lee, Shiung Hwangen_US
dc.creator (作者) 李旭煌zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Lee, Shiung Hwangen_US
dc.date (日期) 1994en_US
dc.date (日期) 1993en_US
dc.date.accessioned 29-四月-2016 15:31:02 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 29-四月-2016 15:31:02 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 29-四月-2016 15:31:02 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) B2002003826en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/88358-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 統計學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 81354012zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 自民國69年政府開放國人出國觀光之後，由於國民所得的提高、台幣的升zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章　　前言
１．１　研究動機……………………………………………………………………………………………1
１．２　研究目的……………………………………………………………………………………………1
１．３　文獻回顧……………………………………………………………………………………………2
１．４　研究方法……………………………………………………………………………………………3
１．５　章節架構……………………………………………………………………………………………4
第二章　　理論探討與分析方法
２．１　需求預測模式影響因子探討………………………………………………………………5
２．２　短期需求預測模式
２．２．１　簡算法…………………………………………………………………………………6
２．２．２ 單變量時間序列模式…………………………………………..……………6
２．２．３ 轉移函數模式……………………………………………….…………………10
２．３　長期需求預測模式
２．３．１　時間趨勢模式……………………………………………………………………11
２．３．２　指數平滑法…………………………………………………………………………12
２．３．３ 計量經濟模式……………………………………….…………………………14
２．４　整合模式預測……………………………………………………………………….…………16
２．５　模式選取與預測能力評估準則
２．５．１　模式選取準則……………………………………………………………………16
２．５．２　預測能力評估準則……………………………………………………………17
第三章　　出國觀光旅客需求預測分析
３．１　總體市場…………………………………………………………..………………………………19
３．２　日本市場…………………………………………………………………………….……………31
３．３　美國市場………………………………………………………………….………………………45
３．４　香港市場………………………………………………………………………………….………58
３．５　韓國市場…………………………………………………………………………………….……71
３．６　泰國市場…………………………………………………………………………………….……85
第四章　　結論與建議…………………………………………………………………………………………97
參考文獻………………………………………………………………………………………………………………101
附錄………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..……104		zh_TW
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002003826en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 預測模式；平均絕對百分誤差；根均方百分誤差；方向、趨勢變化誤差。zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Forecasting Model；MAPE；RMSPE；Direction of Change Error； Trend Change Erroren_US
dc.title (題名) 出國觀光旅客需求預測模式建立之研究zh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 行政院主計處(民82-83),國民經濟動向統計季報.
行政院主計處(民69-82),中華民國統計月報.
交通部觀光局(民69-83),觀光資料.
吳柏林等(民81),”台灣地區外籍觀光旅客人數預測模式之探討”,第
二屆統計模式與預測系列演講,政大應術所.
徐守德,李鎮旗(民83),”企業銷售預測之方法與實證研究-以台電公
司為例”,管理評論,第13卷,第一期,23-56.
陳敦基(民80),”來華觀光旅客之需求特性與時間序列分析”,民國80
年觀光事業發展學術研討會論文集.
陳敦基(民82),來華語出國觀光旅客人數預測模式建立之研究,交通
部觀光局委託研究報告.
廖啟泰(民78),Minitab使用手冊,台北:儒林書局.


Abraham,B. and Ledolter, J.(1983), Statistical Methods for Forecasting, New York:John Wiley.
Brown, R.G.(1962), Smoothing, Forecasting and Prediction of Discrete Time Serie, Prentice-Hall,Englewood Cliffs,NJ.
Calantone, R.J., Di Benedetto, C.A. and Bojanic,D.(1987).”A Comprehensive Review o The Tourism Forecasting Literature”, Journal of Travel Research, 26(3),28-39.
Cryer,J.D.(1987),Time Series Analysis, 1st ed,Boston:Duxbury Press.
Fritz,R.G., Brandon C. and Xander,J.(1984). “Combining Time-Series and Econometric Forecast of Tourism Activity”, Annals of Tourism Research, 11,219-229.
Madansky, A. (1988), Prescriptions for Working Statisticians ,New York : Spring –Verlag.
Makridakis, S. and Winkler,R.L.(1983),” Average of Forecast : Some Empirical Results”, Management Science,29(9),987-996.
Martin, C.A. and Witt,S.F.(1988),”Substitute Prices in Models of Tourism Demand”, Annalys of Tourism Research,15,2555-268
Martin, C.A. and Witt,S.F.(1989a),”Forecasting Tourism Demand: A Comparison of the Accurary of Several Quantitative Mthods”, International Journal of Forecasting, 5,7-19.
Martin,C.A. and Witt,S.F.(1989b),”Accurary of Econometric Forecasts of Tourism”, Annals of Tourism Research, 16,407-428.
Neter,J., Wasserman, W. and Kutner,M.H.(1985), Applied linear statistical models, 2nd ed, USA:Richard D.Irwin,Inc.
SAS Institute,Inc.(1988), SAS/ETS User’s Guide, Cary,NC.
SAS Institute,Inc.(1988), SAS/STAT User’s Guide,Cary,NC.
Sheldon,P.J. and Var, T.(1985),”Tourism Forecasting:A Review of Empirical Research”,Journal of Forecasting,4(2),183-195.
Uysal, M. and Crompton,J.L.(1984),”Determinants of Demand for International Tourist Flows to Turkey”,Tourism Management, 5(4),288-297.
Vandaele, W. (1983), Applied Time Series and Box-Jenkins Models, New York: Academic Press,Inc.
Wei,Willian.W.S.(1990), Tim Series Analysis-Univariate and Multivariate Methods,New York:Addison-Wesley.
Witt.C.A and Witt,S.F.(1990),”Appraising An Economic Forecasting Model”, Journal of Travel Research, 29(4), 30-34.
Witt,S.F.(1990),”Appraising An Economic Forecasting Model”, Journal of Travel Research, 29(4), 30-34.
Witt,S.F. and Martin, C.A.(1987),”Econometric Models for Forecasting International Tourism Demand”, Journal of Travel Research,26(4),23-30.
Witt,S.F.,Newbould,G.D. and Watkins,A.J. (1992),”Forecasting Domestic Tourism Demand : Application to Las Vegas Arrivals Data”, Journal of Travel Research,36-41.
Witt,S.F. and Witt,C.A. (1991), “Tourism Forecassting : Error Magnitude, Direction of Change Error, and Trend Change Error”, Journal of Travel Research, 30(3), 26-33.		zh_TW