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題名 整合統計模式與專家系統之研究
Integrating Statistical Models and Expert Systems
作者 黃建芬
貢獻者 余千智
黃建芬
日期 1989
上傳時間 4-五月-2016 14:24:21 (UTC+8)
摘要 摘要
     近年來隨著統計分析的日受重視，統計套裝軟體之使用率普遍提昇；而現今一般統計套裝軟體，除可提供良好的數值處理功能與便於使用的優點外，對於使用者有二基本假設：(1)熟悉系統操作與程式設計， (2)可正確使用統計方法。故易造成一般非統計專業人員之使用者的誤用與不便。
     本文係引進專家系統之推理、解釋等統計專家知識，與決策支援系統之數量分析、資料粹取管理功能等，實際與統計套裝軟體整合，建構一統計專家系統，以改善統計套裝軟體之缺點，並增加系統之使用者親和性。
     文中首先將過去統計專家系統之相關研究文獻，做一分類回顧與探討；並提出一整合性統計專家系統的觀念、架構，其中設計重點有二：
     (1)統計知識之模組化層次設計：配合統計知識結構與統計分析特性，將統計知識採塊狀模組化層次設計，實際解決統計系統與專家系統之知識整合。
     (2)執行程序庫之設計：控制專家系統與統計軟體系統間之資訊傳遞，實際處理統計系統與專家系統之軟體整合。
     為擴增系統使用層面，此架構又具二功能之子系統：
     (1)統計諮詢系統：利用統計知識庫，提供非統計專業人員一完整之統計問題諮詢；含適當統計模式的選取、分析及分析結果解釋等。
     (2) 統計決策支援系統：提供統計專業人員一親和性之統計決策支援環境；使用者無需統計知識庫的協助，直接進入系統，選取所需統計模式進行分析。
     整合性統計專家系統強調其對各種軟體具有包容性及擴展性；為驗證其可行性，特引用現有軟體，依此觀念架構建立一原型系統，並分別以多元直線迴歸與多項式迴歸二例，代入系統實際執行，以觀察其運作流程。
參考文獻 參考文獻
     (一)中文部份
     [1] 杜修文,碩士論文:"整合性決策支援系統產生器概念架構與運作過程,"國立臺灣技術學院技術工業管理組. 1987.
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     [3] 陳禹辰、歐陽崇榮 ,『決策支援與專家系統』.全華. 1988年2月
     [4] 陳彰文，碩士論文:"知識型決策支援系統的概念架構及運作過程."國立臺灣技街學院技術工業管理組. 1988.
     [5] 黃俊英,『多變量分析』.第三版，華泰. 1988年2月
     [6] 曾國雄,『多變量解析與其應用』.第二版，華泰. 1985年8月
     [7] 顏月珠,『應用數理統計學』.第二版，三民. 1985年9月
     
     (一)英文部份
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     [9] Altman. N. S. (1985) "Expert Systems and Statistical Expertise. Part I : Statistical Expert Systems." 1985(5). Stanford Univ.,NTIS AD-A 159 503.
     [10] Baines. A ., Clithero. D.T ., Leeds.(1986) "Interactive User-friendly Package for Design and Analysis of Experiments." in Proceedings COMPSTAT 86. Antoni. F.D., Lauro. N.,and Rizzi. A.(ed.). Physica-Verlag. 320-325.
     [11] Blum. R.L. (1982) Discovery and representation of causal relationships from a large timeoriented clinical database: The RX project. New York: Springer-Verlag.
     [12] Bowerman. B.L ., O`Connell. R.T. and Dickey. D.A. (1986) Linear Statistical Models An Applied Approach. Duxbury Press. Boston.
     [13] Carlsen. F ., and Bergen. B. (1986) "EXPRESS –An Expert System Utilizing Standard Statistical Packages.- in Proceeding COMPSTAT 86. Antoni. F.D ., Lauro. N ., and Rizzi. A. (ed.). Physica Verlag. 265-270.
     [14] Chambers. J.M. (1981) "Some Thoughts on Expert Software." in Computer Science and Statistics Processings of the 13th Symposium on the Interface. Eddy. W.F. (ed.. Springer-Verlag. 36-40.
     [15] Chambers. J.M., Pregibon. D ., and Zayas. E.R. (1981) "Expert software for Data Analysis-An Initial Experiment." in Proceedings of the 43rd Session of the I.S.I XLIX. Buenos Aires. 279-297.
     [16] Chou. Y.L.(1975) Statistical Analysis. Reading, Holt. Rinehart and Winston. N.Y ., 3-9.
     [17] Churchill. G.J. (1979) Marketing Research: Methodological Foundations(2nd ed.), Dryden Press. p. 215.
     [18] Dambroise. E ., and Montpellier. P.M. (1986)" MUSE: An Expert System in Statistics." in Proceeding COMPSIAI 86. Antoni. F.D ., Lauro.N ., and Rizzi. A. (ed.). Physica-Verlag. 271-276.
     [19] Deogun. J.S. (1988) "A Conceptual Approach to Decision Support System Models." Information Processing & Management. Vol. 24. No.4. 429-448.
     [20] Gale. W.A. (1984) "Overview of Artificial Intelligence and Statistics." in Artificial Intelligence and Statistics. Reading. Addison Wesley. 1-16.
     [21] Gale. W.A. (1984) NREX Review." in Artificial Intelligence and Statistics,Reading. Addison Wesley. 1-16.
     [22] Gale. W.A ., and Lubinsky. D.J. (1986) VA Comparison of Regressions for Statistical Strategies." Proceedings of the A.S.A Statistical Computing Section. 88-96.
     [23] Gale. W.A ., and Pregibon. D. (1982) "An Expert System for Regression analysis." in Computer Science and Statistics: Proceedings of the 14th on the Interface. Heiner. Scher. and Wilkinson (eds.). New York. Springer-Verlag. 110-117.
     [24] Gale. W.A ., And Pregibon. D. (1983) "REX: An Expert System for Regression Analysis." in Proceedings COMPSTAT 84. Prague. Czechoslovakia. 242-248.
     [25] Gale. W.A ., And Pregibon. D. (1984) "Artificial Intelligence Research in Statistics." The AI Magazine. Vol. 5. No.4. 72-75.
     [26] Haaland. P.D ., Yen. D ., and Liddle. R.F. (1985) "An Expert System for Experiment Design." Proceedings of the A.S.A: Statistical Computing Section. 78-87.
     [27] Haaland. P.D ., Yen. D ., and Liddle. R.F. (1986) "An Expert System for the Design of Screening Experiment." Proceedings of the A.S.A Statistical Computing Section. 223-228.
     [28] Hahn. G.J. (1985) "More Intelligent Statistical Software and Statistical Expert Systems: Future Directions." The American Statistician. 33. 351-369.
     [29] Hair. J.F.J ., Anderson. R.E ., Tatham. R.L ., and Grablowsky. B.J. (1979) Multivariate Data Analysis. Reading. Macmillan.
     [30] Hand. D.J. (1984) "Statistical Expert Systems : Design." The Statistician. 33. 351-369.
     [31] Hand. D.J. (1984) "Patterns in Statistical Strategy." in Artificial Intelligence and Statistics. Reading. Addison Wesley. 355-387.
     [32] Hand. D.J. (1985) "Statistical Expert Systems Necessary Attributes." Journal of Applied Statistics. 12. 19-27.
     [33] Hayes-Roth. F ., Waterman. D.A ., and Lenat. D.B. (1983) "An Expert Overview of Expert Systems." in Building Expert Systems. Reading. Addison Wesley. 3-29.
     [34] Heverlee. P.L.D. (1986) "Building Expert Systems with the Help of Existing Statistical Software: An Example." in Proceeding COMPSTAT 86. Antoni.F.D ., Lauro.N ., and Rizzi.A. (ed.). Physica-Verlag. 277-282.
     [35] Holsapple. C.W ., and Whinston. A.B., (1987) Business Expert Systems. Reading. Irwin.
     [36] Keirn. R.T.C ., and Jacobs. S. (1986) "Expert Systems: The DSS of the Future?" Journal of Systems Management. Dec. 1986 ., 6-14.
     [37] Manuel. 1. (1985) "The Pell -Well Push into Expert Systems Forces Integration Issue." Electronics. July 1. 1985.
     [38] Marti. P.A ., and Catot. J.M. (1985) "Incorporrating Expertise in Time Series Modelling: The STATXPS SYSTEM." Statistical Software Newsletter.
     Vol. 11. No.2. 55-62.
     [39] Mendenhall. W ., Reinmuth. J.E ., Beaver. R ., and Duhan. D. (1986) Statistics for Management and Economics. Reading. Duxbury Press. Boston. 6-9.
     [40] Neter. J ., Wasserman. W. and Kutner. M.H.(1983)
     Applied Linear Regression Models. Reading.
     Richard D. Irwin. Inc.
     [41] O`Keefe. Richard (1982)-An Expert Systems for Statistics." paper presented at the Technical Conference on Theory and Practise of Knowledge Based Systems. Brunal University. England.
     [42] Oldford. R.W. and Peters. S.C. (1984) "Building a Statistical Knowledge Based System with MiniMYCIN." Proceedings of the A.S.A Statistical Computing Section. 309-311.
     [43] Oldford. R.W ., and Peters. S.C. (1984) "Implementation and Study of Statistical Strategy. II in Artificial Intelligence and Statistics. Reading. Addison Wesley. 335-353.
     [44] Portier.,K..M ., and Lai. P.Y (1983) "A Statistical Expert System for Analysis Determination. II Proceedings of the A.S.A: Statistical Computing Section. 309-311.
     [45] Pregibon. D. (1984) "A DIY Guide to Statistical Strategy. II in Artificial Intelligence and Statistics. Reading. Addison Wesley. 389-399.
     [46] Rich. E., (1983) Artificial Intelligence. Reading. McGraw-Hill Book Com ., 1-6.
     [47] Sachs. L. (1984) Applied Statistics A Handbook of Techniques. Reading. Springer-Verlag.N . Y ., 3-6.
     [48] Smith. A.M.R ., Lee. L.S ., and Hand. D.J. (1983) "Interactive User-friendly Interface to Statistical Packages." The Computer Journal. Vol. 26. No.3. 199-204.
     [49] Sprague. Building Reading. R.H.J., and Carlson. E.D. (1986) Effective Decision Support Systems.
     [50] Tabachnick. B.G. and Fidell. L.S. (1983) Using Multivariate Statistics. Reading. Harper & Row. Publishers. Inc.
     [51] Tampere. P.H.(1986) "How to Assist an Inexperienced User in the Preliminary Analysis of Time Series: First Version of the Estes Expert System." in Proceeding COMPSTAT 86. Antoni. F.D ., Lauro. N., and Rizzi. A. (ed.). Physica-Verlag.295-300.
     [52] Turban. E., and Watkins. P.R.,(1986)"Intergrating Expert Systems and Decision Systems. "MIS Quartely. July. 1986.121-136.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
統計學系
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002005735
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 余千智zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (作者) 黃建芬zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 黃建芬zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 1989en_US
dc.date.accessioned 4-五月-2016 14:24:21 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 4-五月-2016 14:24:21 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 4-五月-2016 14:24:21 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) B2002005735en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/90501-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 統計學系zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 摘要
     近年來隨著統計分析的日受重視，統計套裝軟體之使用率普遍提昇；而現今一般統計套裝軟體，除可提供良好的數值處理功能與便於使用的優點外，對於使用者有二基本假設：(1)熟悉系統操作與程式設計， (2)可正確使用統計方法。故易造成一般非統計專業人員之使用者的誤用與不便。
     本文係引進專家系統之推理、解釋等統計專家知識，與決策支援系統之數量分析、資料粹取管理功能等，實際與統計套裝軟體整合，建構一統計專家系統，以改善統計套裝軟體之缺點，並增加系統之使用者親和性。
     文中首先將過去統計專家系統之相關研究文獻，做一分類回顧與探討；並提出一整合性統計專家系統的觀念、架構，其中設計重點有二：
     (1)統計知識之模組化層次設計：配合統計知識結構與統計分析特性，將統計知識採塊狀模組化層次設計，實際解決統計系統與專家系統之知識整合。
     (2)執行程序庫之設計：控制專家系統與統計軟體系統間之資訊傳遞，實際處理統計系統與專家系統之軟體整合。
     為擴增系統使用層面，此架構又具二功能之子系統：
     (1)統計諮詢系統：利用統計知識庫，提供非統計專業人員一完整之統計問題諮詢；含適當統計模式的選取、分析及分析結果解釋等。
     (2) 統計決策支援系統：提供統計專業人員一親和性之統計決策支援環境；使用者無需統計知識庫的協助，直接進入系統，選取所需統計模式進行分析。
     整合性統計專家系統強調其對各種軟體具有包容性及擴展性；為驗證其可行性，特引用現有軟體，依此觀念架構建立一原型系統，並分別以多元直線迴歸與多項式迴歸二例，代入系統實際執行，以觀察其運作流程。		zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 目錄……Ⅰ
     圖目錄……Ⅳ
     表目錄Ⅶ
     第一章 緒論……1
     第一節 統計方法之簡介……1
     1.1.1 統計方法之定義、目的與重要性……1
     1.1.2 一般統計問題分析流程……2
     第二節 統計套裝軟體的應用與缺點……4
     1.2.1 統計套裝軟體的應用……4
     1.2.2 現今統計套裝軟體之限制與缺點……4
     第三節 引進專家系統與決策支援系統改善統計分析……6
     1.3.1 引入專家系統部份之簡介……7
     1.3.2 引入決策支援系統部份之簡介……10
     1.3.3 整合專家系統與決策支援系統以改善統計分析……12
     第四節 研究動機與目的……14
     1.4.1 目前統計專家系統的研究發展……14
     1.4.2 研究動機與目的……15
     第五節 研究限制……15
     第六節 研究步驟……16
     第二章 文獻回顧……17
     第一節 統計專家系統之設計理論與性質探討……18
     第二節 專家系統與統計套裝軟體整合方式探討……21
     2.2.1 利用統計套裝軟體語言寫一軟體介面……21
     2.2.2 利用AI或傳統程式語言寫一統計套裝軟體介面……24
     第三節 統計專家系統之分類介紹……27
     2.3.1 依系統智慧程度分類……28
     2.3.2 依有無應用領域知識分類……29
     2.3.3 依系統功能分類……30
     2.3.4 依所採統計策略分類……31
     第四節 含應用領域知識之統計專家系統……35
     第五節 不含應用領域知識之統計專家系統……39
     2.5.1 分析模式確認之統計專家系統……39
     2.5.2 特定統計模式專家系統……41
     2.5.3 單一程序模式專家系統……58
     第三章 統計專家系統之觀念架構……60
     第一節 統計專家系統觀念架構之組成單元……60
     3.1.1 使用者介面…… 62
     3.1.2 推論機……66
     3.1.3 知識庫……67
     3.1.4 資料庫管理系統……71
     3.1.5 程式庫管理系統……73
     3.1.6 程序庫管理系統……76
     3.1.7 應用軟體庫及其介面之整合探討…… 77
     第二節 統計專家系統觀念架構之運作流程……82
     3.2.1 非統計專業人員之系統運作流程……82
     3.2.2 統計專業人員或具經驗使用者之系統運作流程……83
     第四章 原型系統建構……88
     第一節 原型系統援用軟體介紹……88
     第二節 原型系統之組成單元及各別援用軟體……90
     第三節 統計策略……98
     4.3.1 起始統計模式確認模組……99
     4.3.2 多變量分析模式模組……100
     4.3.3 迴歸模式分析模組……100
     第五章 實例運作……107
     第一節 實例運作……107
     5.1.1 實例I-多元直線迴歸分析……108
     5.1.2 實例Ⅱ-二次多元迴歸分析……121
     第二節 實例運作所援用之軟體執行程式功能介紹……122
     第三節 原型系統優缺點之探討……128
     5.3.1 原型系統STATEX 之設計特色……128
     5.3.2 原型系統STATEX 之設計缺點與限制……129
     第六章 結論與建議……130
     第一節 結論……130
     第二節 建議……132
     參考文獻……133
     附錄……139
     圖目錄
     圖1.1-1 一般統計問題分析處理流程與決策制定之關係……2
     圖1.3-1 Holsapple 及whinstom的專家系統結構…… 8
     圖1.3-2 Tom Manuel 之典型的專家系統……10
     圖1.3-3 DSS 之簡單架構圖……11
     圖2.1-1 HAND之統計專家系統設計架構……19
     圖2.2-1 Heverlee以SAS軟體完成之推論機……22
     圖2.2-2 t-test部分規則之圖形表示法……24
     固2.2-3 EXPRESS之單一步驟處理流程……26
     圖2.3-1 統計策略之分析流程……32
     圖2.3-2 統計策略之操作層次部份關係圖……33
     圖2.4-1 MUSE 架構圖……38
     圖2.5-1 STATPATH 之架構……39
     圖2.5-2 線性評估之部份策略流程圖……45
     圖2.5-3 將迴歸策略轉為規則表示法之範例……45
     圖2.5-4 迴歸分析原型專家系統之推論機內部設計架構圖……46
     圖2.5-5 框架表示法之單一節點結構……47
     圖2.5-6 後推鏈結法的作業流程……49
     圖2.5-7 前推鏈結法的作業流程……49
     圖2.5-8 REX之推論機內部設計架構圖……53
     圖2.5-9 Dexter 之策略處理流程……55
     圖2.5-10 設計模式之N-ary tree……56
     圖2.5-11 ESTES 之簡單處理流程……58
     圖3.1-1 統計專家系統架構圖……63
     圖3.1-2 使用者介面……65
     圖3.1-3 統計專家系統之基本處理流程……67
     圖3.1-4 知識庫模組化層次設計……69
     圖3.1-5 統計知識模組目錄……70
     圖3.1-6 資料庫管理系統……72
     圖3.1-7 資料目錄……72
     圖3.1.8 程式庫管理系統……75
     圖3.1.9 程式目錄……75
     圖3.1.10 程序庫管理系統……78
     圖3.1-11 程序目錄……78
     圖3.1-12 以DIF 檔案整合軟體介面……80
     圖3.1-13 以資料庫管理系統整合軟體介面……80
     圖3.1-14 執行程序之相關系統資訊及運作流程……81
     圖3.2-1 統計諮詢系統之運作流程……86
     圖3.2-2 統計決策支援系統之運作流程……87
     圖4.1-1 GURU 之整合性工具架構……89
     圖4.2-1 階層式模組化知識庫……91
     圖4.2-2 GURU 之階層式模組化知識庫部份程式……91
     圖4.2-3 具彈性設計之SAS 程式庫部份程式……94
     圖4.2-4 SAS 程式產生之運作流程……95
     圖4.2-5 GURU 資料庫轉換功能……95
     圖4.2-6 模式庫管理系統產生之完整SAS程式……96
     圖4.2-7 程序之運作流程……97
     圖4.3-1 統計模式起始推論模組之基本統計策略……99
     圖4.3-2 多變量分析模式分類圖……101
     圖4.3-3 多元線性迴歸模式知識模組之基本架構……102
     圖4.3-4 STATEX 之多元線性迴歸模式知識模組……105
     圖5.1-1 基本統計問題與資料型態之對答管理……112
     圖5.1-2 變數名稱及測度屬性之輸入表格……112
     圖5.1-3 變數名稱及測度屬性之修改功能……112
     圖5.1-4 資料檔案描述……113
     圖5.1-5 系統載入資料之處理狀態資訊……114
     圖5.1-6 多變量分析目的之選擇功能表……114
     圖5.1-7 預測變數與準則變數之輸入……115
     圖5.1-8 系統計算敘述統計量之處理狀態資訊……115
     圖5.1-9 極端值檢定之處理狀態資訊……116
     圖5.1-10 常態性檢定之處理狀態資訊……116
     圖5.1-11 準則變數線性重合機定之處理狀態資訊……117
     圖5.1-12 迴歸模式分析目的之選擇功能表……117
     圖5.1-13 實例I之迴歸模式對準則變數二次項與交叉項之
     線性診斷處理狀態資訊……118
     圖5.1-14 實例I迴歸模式之參數推估結果……118
     圖5.1-15 實例I之迴歸模式評估結果……119
     圖5.1-16 實例I銷售額之迴歸模式輸出……119
     圖5.1-17 實例I欲預測之準則變數觀測值表格式輸入功能…… 120
     圖5.1-18 實例I銷售額之迴歸模式輸出……120
     圖5.1-19 實例Ⅱ資料極端值檢定之處理狀態資訊……123
     圖5.1-20 實例Ⅱ之迴歸模式對準則變數二次項與交叉項之線性診斷處理狀態資訊……123
     圖5.1-21 實例Ⅱ市場需求之多項式迴歸模式……124
     圖5.1-22 實例Ⅱ市場需求之迴歸模式輸出……124
     表目錄
     表1.3-1 ES與DSS之特性比較法……12
     表1.3-2 SES的特性……13
     表2.1-1 統計專家系統與一般專家系統之特性比較……20
     表2.3-1 使用不同統計策略之統計專家系統……34
     表2.3-2 統計專家系統分類表……35
     表3.1-1 對話方式之特性比較……64
     表4.2-1 GURU 系統提供之四種資料轉換檔……91
     表4.3-1 多變量分析目的……100
     表5.1-1 Z公司各銷售站基本資料……108
     表5.1-2 E工廠各期市場需求基本資料……121
     表5.2-1 實例運作所援用之軟體執行程式總表……125
     表5.2-2 專家系統執行程式功能表……126
     表5.2-3 統計系統執行程式功能表……127		zh_TW
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002005735en_US
dc.title (題名) 整合統計模式與專家系統之研究zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Integrating Statistical Models and Expert Systemsen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 參考文獻
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