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題名 住宅區段地價估價模型之建立-臺北縣三峽鎮為例
A Residential District Land Value Model - Case Study in Sanshia,Taipei County
作者 李建德
貢獻者 張金鶚
Chang, Chin-Oh
李建德
關鍵詞 公告土地現值
區段地價
土地估價模型
特徵價格法
大量估價
Announced Currently Land Value
District Land Value
LandValue Assessment Model
Hedonic Price
Mass Appraisal
日期 2009
上傳時間 9-五月-2016 15:40:15 (UTC+8)
摘要 如何客觀有系統的估計公告土地現值一直是土地估價研究領域的熱
     門話題，目前公告土地現值的查估，多數以區段地價作為宗地地價，受限
     人為主觀與人力不足的缺點，查估的結果並不一定能有效反應各區段間地
     價差異。由於以往房地產實證研究的領域中，特徵方程式一直是受到廣泛
     運用的工具，然多數著重於各別宗地價格進行模型設計，較少以地價區段
     範圍建立估價模型。本研究以三峽鎮住宅區民國89 至98 年區段地價進行
     實證分析。變數的選取主要是配合「地價調查估計規則」所規範影響普通
     住宅用地區域因素基準，並將全部變項納入複迴歸模型中，先測試綜合影
     響程度，再將未符合預期及篩選合理顯著變項重新建立區段地價估價模
     型。實證顯示接近公車站牌之程度、區段內道路規劃及開闢建程度、景觀
     有無、保排水良否、地勢是否高低起伏、至國中小距離、至市場超市距離、
     至三峽老街距離、停車是否便利、至墓地殯儀館火葬場距離及是否具發展
     潛力等11 項變數達顯著水準，於20%內之Hit Rate 達91.18%，MAPE 亦僅
     7.9%，均能符合預期表現。本文透過區段地價估價模型之建立，提供電腦
     輔助區段地價估價可行方案，藉以增進公告土地現值評估客觀及科學化程
     度。
How to estimate the announced current land value objectively and
     systematically is always a hot issue in land valuation research field. And, since
     the announced current land value is the foundation for levying the land value
     increment tax and compensation when land expropriation, the risk of unfairness
     might happen if the announced current land value is not objective and
     systematical. Under the announced current land value system, most parcel land
     values are produced using the district land value. Although decades of valuation
     experience by assessors, the district land value would not necessarily reflect
     fundamental value effectively. Taking into consideration of the difference
     between the degree the zoning affect the land value and the heterogeneity
     characteristic of land, this paper construct district land value model on different
     zoning. The empirical study region is the residential zoning area in the Sanshia
     Township, for its landscape with new and old mixed buildings, featuring
     metropolitan development characteristic, and stable sales transaction volume.
     The empirical time period is from 2000 to 2009. The district land value
     estimated from sales, collected from the Shulin Land Office, is the dependent
     variable. The selection of the independent variables is in line with the region
     factors of common residential area regulated by “The Regulations on the Land
     Value Investigation and Estimation” after combining similar attributes for
     easing the bias possibility from co linearity. The empirical result shows the
     significant variables are the ratio of constructed road area to total area within the
     land value district, parking convenience, development potentiality and the
     distance from bus station, junior, elementary schools, market, service facilities,
     graveyard, etc. The model fit is good with adj-R2. This paper hopes to increase
     the automation degree of the announced current land value and make the
     announced current land value objectively and systematically by establishment of
     the district land value model.
參考文獻 一、中文部分
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     用」，『住宅學報』，(2)：1-22。
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     張梅英，1992，「建立土地大量估價方法之研究」，國立政治大學地政研究
     所博士論文。
     張梅英、施昱年，2004，「台灣大量估價問題分析及改進方法之研究」，『土
     地問題研究季刊』， 3(3)：89-105。
     張杏端，1995，「土地特徵組合估價模式之研究」，國立政大地政研究所博
     士論文。
     張芳玲，1995，「特徵價格法與逼近調整法估價模式之比較-臺北市成屋市
     場為例」，國立台灣大學財務金融學研究所碩士論文。
     曾菁敏，2008，「空間外部性、交易成本與市地重劃對住宅土地價格影響之
     研究－台南市的實證分析」，『住宅學報』，1：23-50。
     董尚義，1980，「臺北市地價空間結構與影響因子分析」，國立中興大學建
     築與都市計劃研究所碩士論文。
     蔡永利，1993，「應用統計估價模型辦理土地現值作業」，『現代地政』，
     149-151。
     蔡永利，1994，「改進公告土地現值作業-修正地價調查估計規則之研究」，
     高雄市政府83 年度研究報告。
     蔡吉源，2001，「台灣土地課稅制度：問題、影響與改革」，『台灣土地研究』，3：37-82。
     謝靜琪，1984，「臺北市公共設施效益資本化之研究」，國立中興大學都市
     計畫研究所碩士論文。
     蘇文賢，2000，「應用大量估價法進行公告土地現值評估之研究」，國立政
     治大學地政研究所碩士論文。
     魏寶桂，1994，「工業用地地價區段劃分及估價之研究」，『地政研究發展叢
     書，土地估價』，第2 輯：113-172。
     譚國雄，1994，「農業用地地價區段劃分及估價之研究」，『地政研究發展叢
     書，土地估價』，第2 輯：3-107。
     
     二、英文部分
     Adelman, I. and Griliches, Z., 1961, “On an Index of Quality Change”, Journalof the American Statistical Association, 56：535-546.
     Asabere, P.K. and Harvey, B., 1985, “Factors Influencing the Value of UrbanLand: Evidence form Halifax-Dartmouth, Canada”, AREUEA Journal, Vo1,13:4,361-377.
     Brotman, B.A., 1990, “Linear and Nonlinear Appraisal Models”, the AppraisalJournal, Apr：249-253.
     Boronico, J.S. and Moliver, D.M., 1997, “Appraisal Reliability and the SalesComparison Approach”, the Appraisal Journal, October：331-336.
     Carroll, T.M., Clauretie, T.M. and Jensen, J.,1996, “Living next to godliness:Residential property values and churches”, Journal of Real Estate Finance
     and Economics, Vo1.12:319-330.
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     David, R. Bowes and Keith, R. Ihlanfeldt,2001, “Identifying the impacts of rail
     transit stations on residential property value”, Journal of Economics,Vo1.50:1-25.
     Davis, F.W., 1970, “proximity to a rapid rail transit station as a factor in residential property values”, The Appraisal Journal: 38.
     Diaz Roderick B., 1999, “Impacts of Rail Transit on Property Values”, Booz Allen & Hamilton Inc, Mclean, VA.
     Edmonds, Ernest and Green, T.R.G., 1984, “Introduction The Ergonomic of the User Interface. In Behavior and Information Technology” , 3（2）：97-38.
     Evans, R. D., and Rayburn, W. B., 1990, “The effect of school desegregation decision on single family house values”, Journal of Real Estate Research, 5,2:221-230.
     Fletcher, M., Gallimore, P. and Mangan, J., 2000,“Heteroskedasticity in hedonic house price models ”,Journal of Property Research,Vo1.17,(2):93-108.
     Follain, J. R. and Malpezzi,S, 1980, “Dissecting Housing Value and Rent,Washington, DC”：The Urban Institute.
     Gatzlaff, D.H. and Smith, M.T., 1993, “The impact of the Miami Metrorail on the value of residences near station locations”, Land Economics,Vo1.69:54-66.
     Gloudemans, R. J, 2002b, “An Empirical Evaluation of Alternative LandValuation Models”, Lincoln Institute of Land Policy Working Paper： 1-37.
     Goodman, A .C .and T .G .Thibodeau, 2003“Housing Market Segmentation andHedonic Prediction Accuracy” Journal of Housing Economics,(3): 181-201.
     Grass R.G., 1992, “The estimation of residential property values around transitstation sites in Washington, D.C”, Journal of Economics and Finance,no.16:139-146.
     Grieson, R.E. and White, J.R., 1989, “The Existence and Capitalization of Neighborhood Externalities: A Reassessment”, Journal of Urban Economics,25:68-76.
     Guerin,2000,“MRA Model Development Using Vacant Land and ImprovedProperty in Single Valuation Model”, Assessment Journal,7(4)：27-34.
     Hearn, J., 1999, “How to Analyze Land Values in the Luxury Market”,Appraisal Journal, Vo1.67, Issue3, 238-245.
     Hoesli,M.B.Trion and Watkins, C., 1997, “A Hedonic Investigation of the Rental Value of Apartments in Central Bordeaux”, Journal of Property Research, 14：15-26.
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描述 碩士
國立政治大學
地政學系
95923007
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0095923007
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 張金鶚zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Chang, Chin-Ohen_US
dc.contributor.author (作者) 李建德zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 李建德zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2009en_US
dc.date.accessioned 9-五月-2016 15:40:15 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 9-五月-2016 15:40:15 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 9-五月-2016 15:40:15 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) G0095923007en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/95309-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 地政學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 95923007zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 如何客觀有系統的估計公告土地現值一直是土地估價研究領域的熱
     門話題，目前公告土地現值的查估，多數以區段地價作為宗地地價，受限
     人為主觀與人力不足的缺點，查估的結果並不一定能有效反應各區段間地
     價差異。由於以往房地產實證研究的領域中，特徵方程式一直是受到廣泛
     運用的工具，然多數著重於各別宗地價格進行模型設計，較少以地價區段
     範圍建立估價模型。本研究以三峽鎮住宅區民國89 至98 年區段地價進行
     實證分析。變數的選取主要是配合「地價調查估計規則」所規範影響普通
     住宅用地區域因素基準，並將全部變項納入複迴歸模型中，先測試綜合影
     響程度，再將未符合預期及篩選合理顯著變項重新建立區段地價估價模
     型。實證顯示接近公車站牌之程度、區段內道路規劃及開闢建程度、景觀
     有無、保排水良否、地勢是否高低起伏、至國中小距離、至市場超市距離、
     至三峽老街距離、停車是否便利、至墓地殯儀館火葬場距離及是否具發展
     潛力等11 項變數達顯著水準，於20%內之Hit Rate 達91.18%，MAPE 亦僅
     7.9%，均能符合預期表現。本文透過區段地價估價模型之建立，提供電腦
     輔助區段地價估價可行方案，藉以增進公告土地現值評估客觀及科學化程
     度。		zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) How to estimate the announced current land value objectively and
     systematically is always a hot issue in land valuation research field. And, since
     the announced current land value is the foundation for levying the land value
     increment tax and compensation when land expropriation, the risk of unfairness
     might happen if the announced current land value is not objective and
     systematical. Under the announced current land value system, most parcel land
     values are produced using the district land value. Although decades of valuation
     experience by assessors, the district land value would not necessarily reflect
     fundamental value effectively. Taking into consideration of the difference
     between the degree the zoning affect the land value and the heterogeneity
     characteristic of land, this paper construct district land value model on different
     zoning. The empirical study region is the residential zoning area in the Sanshia
     Township, for its landscape with new and old mixed buildings, featuring
     metropolitan development characteristic, and stable sales transaction volume.
     The empirical time period is from 2000 to 2009. The district land value
     estimated from sales, collected from the Shulin Land Office, is the dependent
     variable. The selection of the independent variables is in line with the region
     factors of common residential area regulated by “The Regulations on the Land
     Value Investigation and Estimation” after combining similar attributes for
     easing the bias possibility from co linearity. The empirical result shows the
     significant variables are the ratio of constructed road area to total area within the
     land value district, parking convenience, development potentiality and the
     distance from bus station, junior, elementary schools, market, service facilities,
     graveyard, etc. The model fit is good with adj-R2. This paper hopes to increase
     the automation degree of the announced current land value and make the
     announced current land value objectively and systematically by establishment of
     the district land value model.		en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論
     第一節 研究動機與目的 1
     第二節 研究方法與範圍 4
     第三節 研究架構與流程 6
     第二章 相關理論與文獻回顧
     第一節 大量估價方法 7
     第二節 影響地價因素分析 11
     第三節 特徵價格理論 16
     第三章 區段地價現況與問題分析
     第一節 買賣或收益實例蒐集 23
     第二節 地價區段範圍劃分 25
     第三節 無實例區段地價推估 29
     第四章 實證分析
     第一節 資料來源與分析 31
     第二節 變數選取與模型設定 35
     第三節 實證結果 45
     第五章 結論與建議
     第一節 結論 53
     第二節 建議 56
     參考文獻 57
     附錄
     附錄1 買賣實例調查估價表 63
     附錄2 收益實例調查估價表 64
     附錄3 地價區段勘查表 65
     附錄4 影響地價區域因素分析明細表（住宅用地）66
     附錄5 影響住宅用地區域因素評價基準表 67		zh_TW
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0095923007en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 公告土地現值zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 區段地價zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 土地估價模型zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 特徵價格法zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 大量估價zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Announced Currently Land Valueen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) District Land Valueen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) LandValue Assessment Modelen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Hedonic Priceen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Mass Appraisalen_US
dc.title (題名) 住宅區段地價估價模型之建立-臺北縣三峽鎮為例zh_TW
dc.title (題名) A Residential District Land Value Model - Case Study in Sanshia,Taipei Countyen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
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