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題名 流動性限制對一國消費、資金結構與經常帳水準之影響 作者 林淑芬 貢獻者 林柏生
林淑芬日期 2002 上傳時間 10-五月-2016 18:53:59 (UTC+8) 摘要 本篇論文的目的在於探討外生的流動性限制對一國消費、資金結構與經常帳的影響，以瞭解流動性限制在個人消費決策與投資決策上所扮演的角色，進而分析其在經常帳失衡問題上的重要性。 在第二章的模型推導中，因為經濟體系所有的參數皆為已知，因此資產市場的價格對一國而言亦為固定常數，在資產市場不存在任何借款限制之下，該國每一期之平均消費水準將為其三期所得之折現值與其長期資產價格及兩期短期資產價格乘積差異淨值之總和的一個比例，因此，對其而言，主要是依據國際市場長期債券價格及兩期短期債券價格乘積的差異，來決定其為持有長期債券或借款。若資產市場存在長短期外生的借款限制時，則該國的決策行為將由其國內債券的願付價格與國際市場債券價格的大小來決定。 在第三章我們則在未來所得不確定與最適消費決策與投資組合策略同時決定的情況下，探討流動性限制對個人消費決策與資金結構之影響的問題；此外，我們同時納入Deaton(1991)認為借款限制可能可以用於解釋個人財富持有類型的觀點來進行分析。在模型設計上，由於本文採用平方項效用函數，使得個人的預防性儲蓄是因短期流動性限制存在而產生，因此得出明確的分析解。而我們可以根據分析的結果得知，影響個人消費與投資組合決策的各項主要因素，且推論結果顯示：流動性限制為長期債券需求的一個重要影響因素。 第四章則延續第三章的三期模型而擴展為小型開放經濟體系模型，進一步分析存在當資產市場為不完全時，流動性限制的存在對一國經常帳的影響。我們可以由模型之推論發現，短期借款限制的存在，將使有面臨借款限制可能性的國家其對應的該期經常帳水準下降；而若一國在第一期可借得上限之資金的到期日不同，將造成該國第二期經常帳水準發生差異；再者，第一期資產市場不完全程度的差異對不同財富水準國家的影響亦不相同。因此，我們可知，資產市場的完全與否將透過影響一國的消費水準而造成其各期經常帳的差異；而且資產市場不完全程度的差異，亦將使一國持有長期債券或負債對其各期經常帳產生不同的影響方向。由此可知，除了起始期財富水準的高低之外，資產市場的完全與否與市場不完全程度的差異亦是造成各國經常帳失衡現象的一個原因。 我們比較二～四章的推論結果之後發現，若經濟體系中完全沒有不確定性存在時，一個小型開放經濟的國家其消費與資產或負債的持有，完全取決於國內外債券價格的差異，即使存在流動性限制，其只是作為該國借款限制的上限標準，並不影響該國持有資產或負債的到期日之選擇。但若經濟體系中未來所得具有不確定性，則在國際資產市場為完全市場之下，一國的消費與福利水準受到其持有長期資產或負債的影響，而此影響亦是由長期債券的國內外價格差異所決定；但若資產市場為不完全市場，存在流動性限制時，則一國的起始期財富水準成為其消費、儲蓄、投資組合策略與經常帳水準的一個重要決定因素；而持有長期資產或借款對該國的消費與福利水準將受到體系中其他變數的影響。 參考文獻 Aiyagari, S.R. (1994) ‘‘Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk Aggregate Saving,’’ Quarterly Journal of Economics , 109 , 659-684 . Atkeson, A., and J. Ríos-Rull (1997) “The Balance of Payments and Borrowing Constraints : An Alternative View of the Mexican Crisis,” Journal of International Economics , 41 , 331-349 . Backus, D.K. , P.J. Kehoe, and F.E. Kydland (1992) “International Real Business Cycles,” Journal of Political Economy , 100 , 745-775 . Baxter, M., and M.J. Crucini (1995) “Business Cycles and the Asset Structure of Foreign Trade,” International Economic Review , 36 , 821-854 . Bergin,P.R., and S.M. Sheffrin (2000) “Interest Rates , Exchange Rates and Present Value Models of the Current Account,” Economic Journal , 110 , 535-558 . Bernheim, B.D. (1987) ‘‘Ricardian Equivalence : An Evaluation of Theory and Evidence, ’’ in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1987 , edited by Stanley Fischer , Cambridge : MIT Press , 1987 , 263-304 . Black, F., and R. 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國立政治大學
國際經營與貿易學系
82351501資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#A2010000062 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 林柏生 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (作者) 林淑芬 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) 林淑芬 zh_TW dc.date (日期) 2002 en_US dc.date.accessioned 10-五月-2016 18:53:59 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 10-五月-2016 18:53:59 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 10-五月-2016 18:53:59 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) A2010000062 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/96277 - dc.description (描述) 博士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國際經營與貿易學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 82351501 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本篇論文的目的在於探討外生的流動性限制對一國消費、資金結構與經常帳的影響，以瞭解流動性限制在個人消費決策與投資決策上所扮演的角色，進而分析其在經常帳失衡問題上的重要性。 在第二章的模型推導中，因為經濟體系所有的參數皆為已知，因此資產市場的價格對一國而言亦為固定常數，在資產市場不存在任何借款限制之下，該國每一期之平均消費水準將為其三期所得之折現值與其長期資產價格及兩期短期資產價格乘積差異淨值之總和的一個比例，因此，對其而言，主要是依據國際市場長期債券價格及兩期短期債券價格乘積的差異，來決定其為持有長期債券或借款。若資產市場存在長短期外生的借款限制時，則該國的決策行為將由其國內債券的願付價格與國際市場債券價格的大小來決定。 在第三章我們則在未來所得不確定與最適消費決策與投資組合策略同時決定的情況下，探討流動性限制對個人消費決策與資金結構之影響的問題；此外，我們同時納入Deaton(1991)認為借款限制可能可以用於解釋個人財富持有類型的觀點來進行分析。在模型設計上，由於本文採用平方項效用函數，使得個人的預防性儲蓄是因短期流動性限制存在而產生，因此得出明確的分析解。而我們可以根據分析的結果得知，影響個人消費與投資組合決策的各項主要因素，且推論結果顯示：流動性限制為長期債券需求的一個重要影響因素。 第四章則延續第三章的三期模型而擴展為小型開放經濟體系模型，進一步分析存在當資產市場為不完全時，流動性限制的存在對一國經常帳的影響。我們可以由模型之推論發現，短期借款限制的存在，將使有面臨借款限制可能性的國家其對應的該期經常帳水準下降；而若一國在第一期可借得上限之資金的到期日不同，將造成該國第二期經常帳水準發生差異；再者，第一期資產市場不完全程度的差異對不同財富水準國家的影響亦不相同。因此，我們可知，資產市場的完全與否將透過影響一國的消費水準而造成其各期經常帳的差異；而且資產市場不完全程度的差異，亦將使一國持有長期債券或負債對其各期經常帳產生不同的影響方向。由此可知，除了起始期財富水準的高低之外，資產市場的完全與否與市場不完全程度的差異亦是造成各國經常帳失衡現象的一個原因。 我們比較二～四章的推論結果之後發現，若經濟體系中完全沒有不確定性存在時，一個小型開放經濟的國家其消費與資產或負債的持有，完全取決於國內外債券價格的差異，即使存在流動性限制，其只是作為該國借款限制的上限標準，並不影響該國持有資產或負債的到期日之選擇。但若經濟體系中未來所得具有不確定性，則在國際資產市場為完全市場之下，一國的消費與福利水準受到其持有長期資產或負債的影響，而此影響亦是由長期債券的國內外價格差異所決定；但若資產市場為不完全市場，存在流動性限制時，則一國的起始期財富水準成為其消費、儲蓄、投資組合策略與經常帳水準的一個重要決定因素；而持有長期資產或借款對該國的消費與福利水準將受到體系中其他變數的影響。 zh_TW dc.description.tableofcontents 謝詞 摘要 目錄-----I 圖表索引-----II 第一章 緒論-----1 1.1. 研究動機與目的-----1 1.2. 本文章節內容-----8 第二章 確定性情況下流動性限制對一國消費與經常帳之影響-----10 2.1. 前言-----10 2.2. 小型開放經濟體系模型-----11 2.3. 完全資產市場下各期消費與經常帳水準之分析-----13 2.4. 不完全資產市場下各期消費與經常帳水準之分析-----16 2.5. 結論-----23 第三章 不確定情況下流動性限制對個人消費與儲蓄決策之影響-----25 3.1. 前言-----25 3.2. 基本模型-----30 3.3. 短期存在流動性限制下各期最適消費與投資組合策略之求解-----32 3.4. 短期存在流動性限制下持有長期資產對消費與福利水準的影響-----43 3.5. 第一期禁止短期資金流動下消費與投資組合決策之分析-----45 3.6. 結論-----54 第四章 不確定情況下流動性限制對一國經常帳的影響-----57 4.1. 前言-----57 4.2. 小型開放經濟體系模型-----61 4.3. 完全資產市場下各期經常帳均衡水準之分析-----68 4.4. 不完全資產市場下各期經常帳均衡水準之分析-----70 4.5. 結論-----85 第五章 結論與研究限制-----89 5.1. 本文結論-----89 5.2. 本文研究限制-----94 參考文獻-----96 圖表索引 圖1-1 1987年第一季～2001年第二季G7與台灣經常帳水準之趨勢圖-----4 表2-1 確定性情況且不存在流動性限制下資金期限結構對消費、儲蓄與經常帳的影響-----24 表5-1 不確定性情況且不存在流動性限制下資金期限結構對消費、儲蓄與經常帳帳的影響-----55 表5-2 不確定性情況且存在流動性限制下資金期限結構對消費、儲蓄與經常帳的影響－中財富水準者-----57 表5-3 不確定性情況且存在流動性限制下資金期限結構對消費、儲蓄與經常帳的影響－低財富水準者-----57 zh_TW dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#A2010000062 en_US dc.title (題名) 流動性限制對一國消費、資金結構與經常帳水準之影響 zh_TW dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Aiyagari, S.R. 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