| dc.contributor.advisor | 周冠男 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author (作者) | 洪敏豪 | zh_TW |
| dc.creator (作者) | 洪敏豪 | zh_TW |
| dc.date (日期) | 2016 | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | 1-七月-2016 14:58:21 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.available | 1-七月-2016 14:58:21 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.issued (上傳時間) | 1-七月-2016 14:58:21 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) | G0103357003 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri (URI) | http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/98560 | - |
| dc.description (描述) | 碩士 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 國立政治大學 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 財務管理研究所 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 103357003 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | 為了針對實證股價與交易量的資訊，能否作為預測未來政治事件結果提供依據，此篇論文探究四個政治事件，分別是2014年台北市長選舉國民黨黨內初選、2014年台北市長選舉、2016年總統選舉國民黨更換候選人以及2016年總統選舉。作者使用異常交易量作為判斷投資人是否將政治事件視為投資機會，並觀察個股與投資組合之累積異常報酬率是否能作為預測依據，最後以事件後五日內的異常累積報酬判斷投資人是否在事前過度反應或是反應不足。 本研究發現，在政治事件發生前六十日內，大部分政治相關的個股交易量皆顯著異於前一年之交易量。與勝選相關的股票在事件前60日至31日有顯著的正累積異常報酬。相較之下，與敗選相關的股票中，僅有和候選人有緊密政治連結的股票有顯著負累積異常報酬，政策相關的股票並無顯著負累計異常報酬。最後，在現行交易制度下，正異常報酬伴隨著正異常交易量，而負異常報酬卻因放空限制等因素，無顯著正異常交易量。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | This paper analyzes the last four political events, which includes KMT`s Taipei Mayoral Primary, Taipei Mayor Election, KMT Presidential Candidate Replacement and Taiwan Presidential Election. We use trading volume to detect whether investors join the market due to potential political investment opportunity. Then we examine the CAR tendency with the political event results to identify its forecast ability. Last, we detect CAR within 5 days later to find if investor overreact or underreact before the event day. We find that the CAR meets voters’ political anticipation before the event window. Investors believe they can time the market through these events and gain profit. Furthermore, stocks relevant to those elects experience positive CAR. In contrast, stocks relevant to those also-rans do not experience significant returns. The only fortuneteller is the company, which has close relationship to the defeated candidate, telling with negative CAR. Because of short-sale constrains, the trading volume are not larger than before even it is a good chance to gain profit in the political events. | en_US |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | I. Introduction 1II. Literature Review and Hypotheses 3II-1. Political uncertainty 3II-2. Market can aggregate and disseminate information 3II-3. Market prediction and polls 4III. Data and Methodology 6III-1. Data Description 6III-2. Research Methodology and Hypotheses 7Magnate Technology Co Ltd 10IV. Empirical Results 12IV-1. Taipei Mayor Election: KMT’s Taipei Mayoral Primary on 19 April 2014 12IV-2. Taipei Mayor Election: The Election on 29 November 2014 15IV-3. Taiwan President Election: KMT Presidential Candidate Replacement on 17 October 2015 18IV-4. Taiwan Presidential Election on 16 January 2016 20V. Conclusion 24VI. References 26VII. Appendix 27 | zh_TW |
| dc.format.extent | 865781 bytes | - |
| dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | - |
| dc.source.uri (資料來源) | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0103357003 | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 行為財務學 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 事件研究法 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 政治事件 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 累計異常報酬率 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | Behavioral Finance | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | Event Study Methods | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | Political Events | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | CAR | en_US |
| dc.title (題名) | 以股價與交易量預估政治事件結果：以台灣證券市場為例 | zh_TW |
| dc.title (題名) | The forecast on political events with stock prices and trading volumes: Evidence from Taiwan Stock Exchange | en_US |
| dc.type (資料類型) | thesis | en_US |
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