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題名 臺灣房價與所得分配關聯性之研究
The Study of Relationship between Housing Price and Income Distribution in Taiwan作者 吳承曄
Wu, Cheng Yeh貢獻者 林左裕
Lin, Tsoyu Calvin
吳承曄
Wu, Cheng Yeh關鍵詞 房價
所得分配
追蹤資料
追蹤資料向量自我迴歸模型
衝擊反應函數
housing price
income distribution
panel data
panel vector autoregressive model
impulse response function日期 2016 上傳時間 9-八月-2016 11:51:49 (UTC+8) 摘要 有關所得分配不均與房價上漲之議題，近來已引起國內許多討論與研究，Piketty(2014)認為資本所得是造成所得分配惡化之主要原因，而不動產所得又是占資本所得當中相當重要之一項，過去已有許多文獻證實所得分配不均程度與房價之正向關聯，探究國內其二者之關聯性至關重要。本文研究2004年至2013年臺灣九縣市(包含六大直轄市與基隆市、新竹市、宜蘭縣)所得分配與房價變動之關聯性，使用追蹤資料進行分析，除追蹤資料迴歸模型外，另加入追蹤資料向量自我迴歸模型(Panel VAR)與衝擊反應函數分析變數間之跨期變動效果。實證結果指出所得分配不均與房價在當期呈現正向關聯，顯示房價的上漲造成當期所得分配不均程度擴大，且房價變動僅與最高所得階層存在正向關聯，證實不動產高資金門檻特性與高所得者偏好投資不動產之特性。跨期效果方面，藉由衝擊反應函數發現所得分配與房價呈現相互之影響關係，即當房價上升，所得分配不均程度將在下一期上升；當所得分配不均度上升，房價亦將在下一期上升，二者形成惡性循環。而Panel VAR則呈現不顯著之實證結果，顯示其跨期變動效果依然有待驗證。本研究證實臺灣高房價問題已造成所得分配的惡化，且跨期存在交互影響關係。此研究可作為臺灣住宅與社會福利政策之參考，供政府省思房價高漲與所得分配不均之連帶效應。
Economics development and equal income distribution are always the two major goals to pursue in the modern society. Many studies focused on the cause of income inequality. Piketty (2014) suggest that capital gain is the main reason which lead to income inequality, and real estate is an important factor of the capital gain. In recent year, there were many studies focus on the issue of appreciation of housing price and income inequality. The aim of this study is explore the relationship between income distribution and housing price. This study intends to analyze how the housing price impact income distribution and how income inequality affect housing price through panel data (including fixed effect model, random effect model, panel vector autoregressive model and impulse response function) in nine countries of Taiwan (six municipalities, Keelung City, Hsinchu City and Yilan Country) from 2004 to 2013. Result of this study indicate that appreciation of housing price lead to the deterioration of income distribution. Through the analysis of Panel VAR and impulse response function, we suggest that income inequality has a significant impact on the housing price of next period. Moreover, we find a positive standard deviation impulse of housing price had a positive influence on income inequality of next period. These two factors form a vicious cycle. This study highlight the important relationship between the fluctuation of housing price and income distribution, providing government of a framework to think of the related effects of rising housing price and the income distribution and policy making direction.參考文獻 朱敬一、康廷嶽，2015，「經濟轉型中的「社會不公平」」，『臺灣經濟預測與政策』，45(2)，1–22。呂建德、李淑容、王舒芸、陳昭榮，2014，「我國社會福利提供方式之研究」，國家發展委員會委託研究報告。吳慧瑛，1998，「家戶人口規模與所得分配，1976-1995」 中央研究院經濟研究所。林左裕，2012，「貨幣政策與房價的關係」，行政院國家科學委員會專題研究計畫成果報告。洪明皇，2009，「台灣所得分配之實證研究-三種趨勢之分析」，國立中正大學社會福利研究所博士論文：嘉義。俞哲民，2008，「人口老化對於所得分配之影響-以臺灣二十三個縣市為例」，國立政治大學財政系碩士論文：台北。陳亭宇，2011，「臺灣地區所得分配與成長因素之探討」，國立台灣大學經濟系碩士論文：台北陳明吉、蔡怡純、張金鶚，2001，家庭所得與住宅價格長期關係探討-STOPBREAK 模型之應用.中華民國住宅學會第十屆年會莊希豐, & 陳亞為., 2011, 貿易開放與所得不均: 以門檻迴歸法分析. 經濟研究 (Taipei Economic Inquiry), 47(2), 185-224.張素梅，1983，「家庭所得分配決定之因素-臺灣地區總體時間數列資料分析」，『經濟論文叢刊』，11，頁109-132。張漢裕，1975，「台灣經濟發展中所得分配變動之分析」，『台灣銀行季刊』，26(4)，頁1-24。張鋼龍，2014，「社會住宅對所得分配影響之探討」，國立政治大學財政學系碩士論文：台北彭建文、吳森田、吳祥華, 2007., 「不動產有效稅率對房價影響分析-以台北市大同區與內湖區為例」，台灣土地研究,10(2), 49-66.黃世鑫，2005，「從臺灣所得分配不均的問題探討追求經濟成長之迷思」，國立臺北大學財政學系碩士論文：台北黃虹荏，2016，「房價與少子化因果關係之研究-以臺灣六大都市為例」，國立政治大學地政系碩士論文：台北劉鶯釧，1983，「臺灣地區家庭所得分配之多因素分析」，『中山社會科學研究所叢刊』，12，頁109-136。劉鶯釧、張清溪，1987，「妻子勞動服務報酬對家庭所得分配的影響-臺灣個案研究」，『經濟論文叢刊』，25(2)，頁509-533。饒志堅、蔡鈺泰、連子惠、莊文寬、葉芳珠、黃麗妃，2008，「全球化對所得分配影響之研究」，行政院主計處統計專題研究報告，97年3月。Abeysinghe, T. and Hao, W. 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國立政治大學
地政學系
102257023資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1022570231 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 林左裕 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Lin, Tsoyu Calvin en_US dc.contributor.author (作者) 吳承曄 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (作者) Wu, Cheng Yeh en_US dc.creator (作者) 吳承曄 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Wu, Cheng Yeh en_US dc.date (日期) 2016 en_US dc.date.accessioned 9-八月-2016 11:51:49 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 9-八月-2016 11:51:49 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 9-八月-2016 11:51:49 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) G1022570231 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/99826 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 地政學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 102257023 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 有關所得分配不均與房價上漲之議題，近來已引起國內許多討論與研究，Piketty(2014)認為資本所得是造成所得分配惡化之主要原因，而不動產所得又是占資本所得當中相當重要之一項，過去已有許多文獻證實所得分配不均程度與房價之正向關聯，探究國內其二者之關聯性至關重要。本文研究2004年至2013年臺灣九縣市(包含六大直轄市與基隆市、新竹市、宜蘭縣)所得分配與房價變動之關聯性，使用追蹤資料進行分析，除追蹤資料迴歸模型外，另加入追蹤資料向量自我迴歸模型(Panel VAR)與衝擊反應函數分析變數間之跨期變動效果。實證結果指出所得分配不均與房價在當期呈現正向關聯，顯示房價的上漲造成當期所得分配不均程度擴大，且房價變動僅與最高所得階層存在正向關聯，證實不動產高資金門檻特性與高所得者偏好投資不動產之特性。跨期效果方面，藉由衝擊反應函數發現所得分配與房價呈現相互之影響關係，即當房價上升，所得分配不均程度將在下一期上升；當所得分配不均度上升，房價亦將在下一期上升，二者形成惡性循環。而Panel VAR則呈現不顯著之實證結果，顯示其跨期變動效果依然有待驗證。本研究證實臺灣高房價問題已造成所得分配的惡化，且跨期存在交互影響關係。此研究可作為臺灣住宅與社會福利政策之參考，供政府省思房價高漲與所得分配不均之連帶效應。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) Economics development and equal income distribution are always the two major goals to pursue in the modern society. Many studies focused on the cause of income inequality. Piketty (2014) suggest that capital gain is the main reason which lead to income inequality, and real estate is an important factor of the capital gain. In recent year, there were many studies focus on the issue of appreciation of housing price and income inequality. The aim of this study is explore the relationship between income distribution and housing price. This study intends to analyze how the housing price impact income distribution and how income inequality affect housing price through panel data (including fixed effect model, random effect model, panel vector autoregressive model and impulse response function) in nine countries of Taiwan (six municipalities, Keelung City, Hsinchu City and Yilan Country) from 2004 to 2013. Result of this study indicate that appreciation of housing price lead to the deterioration of income distribution. Through the analysis of Panel VAR and impulse response function, we suggest that income inequality has a significant impact on the housing price of next period. Moreover, we find a positive standard deviation impulse of housing price had a positive influence on income inequality of next period. These two factors form a vicious cycle. This study highlight the important relationship between the fluctuation of housing price and income distribution, providing government of a framework to think of the related effects of rising housing price and the income distribution and policy making direction. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1第一節 研究動機與目的 1第二節 世界各國與臺灣所得分配現況 5第三節 研究目的與限制 11第四節 研究架構與流程 13第二章 文獻回顧 15第一節 所得分配相關理論 15第二節 衡量所得分配之指標 17第三節 影響所得分配之因素 20第四節 所得分配與不動產市場之關聯性 26第五節 小結 33第三章 研究方法與研究設計 35第一節 研究方法 35第二節 變數選取與資料說明 45第四章 實證結果與分析 53第一節 單根檢定與相關係數表 53第二節 追蹤資料迴歸分析 56第三節 追蹤資料向量自我迴歸模型 59第四節 衝擊反應函數 62第五章 結論與建議 67第一節 結論 67第二節 建議 70參考文獻 73 zh_TW dc.format.extent 1637712 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1022570231 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 房價 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 所得分配 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 追蹤資料 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 追蹤資料向量自我迴歸模型 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 衝擊反應函數 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) housing price en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) income distribution en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) panel data en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) panel vector autoregressive model en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) impulse response function en_US dc.title (題名) 臺灣房價與所得分配關聯性之研究 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The Study of Relationship between Housing Price and Income Distribution in Taiwan en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 朱敬一、康廷嶽，2015，「經濟轉型中的「社會不公平」」，『臺灣經濟預測與政策』，45(2)，1–22。呂建德、李淑容、王舒芸、陳昭榮，2014，「我國社會福利提供方式之研究」，國家發展委員會委託研究報告。吳慧瑛，1998，「家戶人口規模與所得分配，1976-1995」 中央研究院經濟研究所。林左裕，2012，「貨幣政策與房價的關係」，行政院國家科學委員會專題研究計畫成果報告。洪明皇，2009，「台灣所得分配之實證研究-三種趨勢之分析」，國立中正大學社會福利研究所博士論文：嘉義。俞哲民，2008，「人口老化對於所得分配之影響-以臺灣二十三個縣市為例」，國立政治大學財政系碩士論文：台北。陳亭宇，2011，「臺灣地區所得分配與成長因素之探討」，國立台灣大學經濟系碩士論文：台北陳明吉、蔡怡純、張金鶚，2001，家庭所得與住宅價格長期關係探討-STOPBREAK 模型之應用.中華民國住宅學會第十屆年會莊希豐, & 陳亞為., 2011, 貿易開放與所得不均: 以門檻迴歸法分析. 經濟研究 (Taipei Economic Inquiry), 47(2), 185-224.張素梅，1983，「家庭所得分配決定之因素-臺灣地區總體時間數列資料分析」，『經濟論文叢刊』，11，頁109-132。張漢裕，1975，「台灣經濟發展中所得分配變動之分析」，『台灣銀行季刊』，26(4)，頁1-24。張鋼龍，2014，「社會住宅對所得分配影響之探討」，國立政治大學財政學系碩士論文：台北彭建文、吳森田、吳祥華, 2007., 「不動產有效稅率對房價影響分析-以台北市大同區與內湖區為例」，台灣土地研究,10(2), 49-66.黃世鑫，2005，「從臺灣所得分配不均的問題探討追求經濟成長之迷思」，國立臺北大學財政學系碩士論文：台北黃虹荏，2016，「房價與少子化因果關係之研究-以臺灣六大都市為例」，國立政治大學地政系碩士論文：台北劉鶯釧，1983，「臺灣地區家庭所得分配之多因素分析」，『中山社會科學研究所叢刊』，12，頁109-136。劉鶯釧、張清溪，1987，「妻子勞動服務報酬對家庭所得分配的影響-臺灣個案研究」，『經濟論文叢刊』，25(2)，頁509-533。饒志堅、蔡鈺泰、連子惠、莊文寬、葉芳珠、黃麗妃，2008，「全球化對所得分配影響之研究」，行政院主計處統計專題研究報告，97年3月。Abeysinghe, T. and Hao, W. 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