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題名 中國的一帶一路戰略，要去哪裡
A Smooth Road Ahead? China’s Eurasian pivot, its initiatives and what it hopes to gain作者 江德生
Solan, Jonathan貢獻者 蔡中民
Tsai, Chung Min
江德生
Solan, Jonathan關鍵詞 一带一路
海上丝绸之路
攻勢現實主義
相互依賴
西進戰略
中國夢
One belt, One road
Silk Road Economic Belt
Offensive Realism
Complex Interdependence
Eurasian Pivot
China Dream日期 2016 上傳時間 22-八月-2016 13:33:56 (UTC+8) 摘要 The One Belt, One Road (OBOR, 一帶一路, yidaiyilu) initiative announced by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013 represents China’s most forthright articulation of its status as a world power yet. It is symbolically, and potentially in practice, the country’s most important foreign policy initiative of modern times. The intention of this thesis is to investigate why China is investing in the Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB, 丝绸之路经济带, sichouzhilu jingjidai) portion of OBOR, explain what some of the likely geopolitical consequences will be and comment on how the existing international order should respond.I will explore why China is investing in the project and apply the theories of offensive realism and complex interdependence to analyze its motivations. I will synthesize these realist and liberal perspectives and conclude that although China does likely seek to use the SREB as part of attempts to significantly expand its power, which would probably lead to conflict with the United States, domestic and international constraints will prevent it from succeeding; at the same time, the stability-creating interlinkages and developmental advantages that are achievable through the project are something that the international order can benefit from while supporting the legitimate national development strategies of China and avoiding the potential for conflict that would come from attempting to constrain China’s ambitions. 參考文獻 Allison, G. (2015, September). The Thucydides Trap: Are the US and China headed for war? The Atlantic. Retrieved from http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/09/united-states-china-war-thucydides-trap/406756/Anstee, J. (2013, March). Hanging by a Thread? China, America and the New Silk Road. Retrieved from http://www.e-ir.info/2013/03/02/hanging-by-a-thread-china-america-and-the-new-silk-road/#_ftnref19Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. (2016). What is the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank? Retrieved from http://www.aiib.org/html/aboutus/AIIB/?show=0Beauchamp-Mustafaga, N. (2015, February). Dispatch from Beijing: PLA Writings on the New Silk Road. The Jamestown Foundation. Retrieved From http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_ttnews%5Bswords%5D=8fd5893941d69d0be3f378576261ae3e&tx_ttnews%5Bany_of_the_words%5D=PKK&tx_ttnews%5Bpointer%5D=3&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=43561&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=381&cHash=01f13b478820f70b172ae131f2a0d4d4#.V49IjGNYlT4Bhoothalingam, R. (2016). The Silk Road as a Global Brand. Sage Publications. Retrieved from http://www.business-standard.com/article/opinion/ravi-bhoothalingam-the-silk-road-as-a-global-brand-115052400832_1.htmlBurrows, M. and Manning, R. (2015, August). America’s Worst Nightmare: Russia and China Are Getting Closer. The National Interest. Retrieved from http://nationalinterest.org/feature/americas-worst-nightmare-russia-china-are-getting-closer-13661Callahan, W. (2013). China Dreams: 20 Visions of the Future. Retrieved from https://e9d55e420c75940d50b16ecfc386fee0865e7698.googledrive.com/host/0B9nTQTtGdxhFVE10Q3NBdWxkMmc/China-Dreams-20-Visions-Future-51DQDkA1yPL.pdfCarnegie Europe. (2011), The Rise of the SCO as a New Regional Organization: Western Perspectives. Retrieved from http://carnegieeurope.eu/events/?fa=3225CCTV. (2014, May). Meetings Between Xi and Putin Boost China-Russia Ties. CCTV. http://english.cntv.cn/2014/11/05/ARTI1415181746091225.shtmlChang, B. (2014, December 9). Xinjiang and China’s Central Asia Strategy. [Youtube]. SAIS events. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vt6v8jmEWcoChina Daily. (2016, April). Xinjiang Investing Heavily in Infrastructure in 2016. Retrieved from http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2016-04/07/content_24352669.htmChina Daily. (2015, May). China to Invest $900 Billion in Belt and Road Initiative. Retrieved from http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2015-05/28/content_20845687.htmChina International Travel Service. (2016). A Bullet Train from Lanzhou to Urumqi. Retrieved from www.cits.net/china-guide/places/lanzhou-urumqi-railway.htmlClark, M. (2015, September). Understanding China’s Eurasian Pivot. The Diplomat. Retrieved from http://thediplomat.com/2015/09/understanding-chinas-eurasian-pivot/Cooper Ramo, J. (2007, February). Brand China. http://fpc.org.uk/fsblob/827.pdfDeepak, B. (2012, December). From China’s “Peaceful Rise” to “Peaceful Development”: The Rhetoric and MoreDibb, P. and Lee, J. 2014. Why China Will Not Become the Dominant Power in Asia. Regional Security. Retrieved from http://www.regionalsecurity.org.au/Resources/Documents/SC10-3DibbLee.pdfDollar, D. (2015, April). Lessons for the AIIB from the Experience of the World Bank. Brookings Institution. 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Retrieved from https://next.ft.com/content/e9d35df0-0bd8-11e6-9456-444ab5211a2fFinancial Times. (2016, June). IMF Sounds Warning on China’s Corporate Debt. Retrieved from https://next.ft.com/content/3f8dcf22-304c-11e6-bda0-04585c31b153Global Security. (2013). Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). GlobalSecurity.org. Retrieved from http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/int/sco.htmIbragimova, G. After 15 Years, the SCO Is Ready to Expand. Russia Direct. Retrieved from http://www.russia-direct.org/analysis/after-15-years-shanghai-cooperation-organization-ready-expandIkenberry, J. (2014, May 7). The Rise of China and the Future of Liberal World Order. Retrieved from https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/files/chathamhouse/field/field_document/20140507RiseofChina.pdfIMF (2016, July). http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/02/weodata/weoselco.aspx?g=2001&sg=All+countriesInformation Office of the State Council. China’s Peaceful Rise. Retrieved from http://in.chineseembassy.org/eng/zt/peaceful/t855717.htmJacques, M. (2009). When China Rules the World. Retrieved from inctpped.ie.ufjr.br/spiderweb/pdf_3/4_when_china_martin_jacques.pdf Kawai, M. (2015, June 16). Demistifying the AIIB: Implications for China, Japan and the United States. [Youtube]. Colombia SIPA. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XpgGRQn5mdQKelanic, R. (2013, November). China’s Changing Oil Calculus. The National Interest. Retrieved from http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/chinas-changing-oil-calculus-9385Keohane and Nye (1987). Power and Interdependence Revisited. Retrieved from http://www.ri.ie.ufrj.br/intranet/arquivos/power_and_interdependece.pdfKucera, J. (2011, November). The New Silk Road? The Diplomat. http://thediplomat.com/2011/11/the-new-silk-road/Lam, W. (2016, April). Getting Lost in “One Belt, One Road.” Ejinsight. Retrieved from http://www.ejinsight.com/20160412-getting-lost-one-belt-one-road/Leibold, J. (2014, May). http://nationalinterest.org/feature/chinas-go-west-strategy-doomed-10542Lucia, H. (2012). The China Threat Theory Revisited. Retrieved from http://cenaa.org/analysis/the-china-threat-theory-revisited-chinese-changing-society-and-future-development/Mearsheimer, J. (2001). The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. Retrieved from https://samuelbhfauredotcom.files.wordpress.com/2015/10/s2-mearsheimer-2001.pdfMearsheimer, J. (2012). Why China Cannot Rise Peacefully. [Youtube]. CIPS. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CXov7MkgPB4Mearsheimer, J. (2012). Can China Rise Peacefully? The National Interest. Retrieved from http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/can-china-rise-peacefully-10204?page=showMinistry of Foreign Affairs of the PRC. (2014). Advocating the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence and Bringing China-Maldives Relations to a New High. 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Chinese Foreign Policy in Transition: Trends and Implications. Retrieved from journals.sub.uni-hamburg.de/giga/jcca/article/view/254 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
亞太研究英語碩士學位學程(IMAS)
100926032資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1009260321 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 蔡中民 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Tsai, Chung Min en_US dc.contributor.author (作者) 江德生 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (作者) Solan, Jonathan en_US dc.creator (作者) 江德生 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Solan, Jonathan en_US dc.date (日期) 2016 en_US dc.date.accessioned 22-八月-2016 13:33:56 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 22-八月-2016 13:33:56 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 22-八月-2016 13:33:56 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) G1009260321 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/100560 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 亞太研究英語碩士學位學程(IMAS) zh_TW dc.description (描述) 100926032 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) The One Belt, One Road (OBOR, 一帶一路, yidaiyilu) initiative announced by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013 represents China’s most forthright articulation of its status as a world power yet. It is symbolically, and potentially in practice, the country’s most important foreign policy initiative of modern times. The intention of this thesis is to investigate why China is investing in the Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB, 丝绸之路经济带, sichouzhilu jingjidai) portion of OBOR, explain what some of the likely geopolitical consequences will be and comment on how the existing international order should respond.I will explore why China is investing in the project and apply the theories of offensive realism and complex interdependence to analyze its motivations. I will synthesize these realist and liberal perspectives and conclude that although China does likely seek to use the SREB as part of attempts to significantly expand its power, which would probably lead to conflict with the United States, domestic and international constraints will prevent it from succeeding; at the same time, the stability-creating interlinkages and developmental advantages that are achievable through the project are something that the international order can benefit from while supporting the legitimate national development strategies of China and avoiding the potential for conflict that would come from attempting to constrain China’s ambitions. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 1. Introduction 71.1. Research Questions 81.2. Need for Research 81.3. Why the SREB? 81.4. Literature Review 81.4.1. Realism 91.4.2. Realism and China 101.4.3. Liberalism 111.4.4. Liberalism and China 121.4.5. Offensive realism and the SREB 131.4.6. Complex interdependence and the SREB 141.5. Theoretical Perspective 152. A New China and a New Silk Road 162.1. A “Peaceful Rise”? 182.2 National Development 222.3. Import and Export Lines 252.4. Investment 262.5. Strategic Aspects 282.5. Overseas Suspicion 323. Discussion 364. Conclusion 434. Limitations and Future Directions for Research 445. Appendix 455.1. Nominal Definitions 455.2. Maps 496. References 50 zh_TW dc.format.extent 939044 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1009260321 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 一带一路 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 海上丝绸之路 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 攻勢現實主義 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 相互依賴 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 西進戰略 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 中國夢 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) One belt, One road en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Silk Road Economic Belt en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Offensive Realism en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Complex Interdependence en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Eurasian Pivot en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) China Dream en_US dc.title (題名) 中國的一帶一路戰略，要去哪裡 zh_TW dc.title (題名) A Smooth Road Ahead? China’s Eurasian pivot, its initiatives and what it hopes to gain en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Allison, G. (2015, September). The Thucydides Trap: Are the US and China headed for war? The Atlantic. Retrieved from http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/09/united-states-china-war-thucydides-trap/406756/Anstee, J. (2013, March). Hanging by a Thread? China, America and the New Silk Road. Retrieved from http://www.e-ir.info/2013/03/02/hanging-by-a-thread-china-america-and-the-new-silk-road/#_ftnref19Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. (2016). What is the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank? Retrieved from http://www.aiib.org/html/aboutus/AIIB/?show=0Beauchamp-Mustafaga, N. (2015, February). Dispatch from Beijing: PLA Writings on the New Silk Road. The Jamestown Foundation. Retrieved From http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_ttnews%5Bswords%5D=8fd5893941d69d0be3f378576261ae3e&tx_ttnews%5Bany_of_the_words%5D=PKK&tx_ttnews%5Bpointer%5D=3&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=43561&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=381&cHash=01f13b478820f70b172ae131f2a0d4d4#.V49IjGNYlT4Bhoothalingam, R. (2016). The Silk Road as a Global Brand. Sage Publications. Retrieved from http://www.business-standard.com/article/opinion/ravi-bhoothalingam-the-silk-road-as-a-global-brand-115052400832_1.htmlBurrows, M. and Manning, R. (2015, August). America’s Worst Nightmare: Russia and China Are Getting Closer. The National Interest. Retrieved from http://nationalinterest.org/feature/americas-worst-nightmare-russia-china-are-getting-closer-13661Callahan, W. (2013). China Dreams: 20 Visions of the Future. Retrieved from https://e9d55e420c75940d50b16ecfc386fee0865e7698.googledrive.com/host/0B9nTQTtGdxhFVE10Q3NBdWxkMmc/China-Dreams-20-Visions-Future-51DQDkA1yPL.pdfCarnegie Europe. (2011), The Rise of the SCO as a New Regional Organization: Western Perspectives. Retrieved from http://carnegieeurope.eu/events/?fa=3225CCTV. (2014, May). Meetings Between Xi and Putin Boost China-Russia Ties. CCTV. http://english.cntv.cn/2014/11/05/ARTI1415181746091225.shtmlChang, B. (2014, December 9). Xinjiang and China’s Central Asia Strategy. [Youtube]. SAIS events. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vt6v8jmEWcoChina Daily. (2016, April). Xinjiang Investing Heavily in Infrastructure in 2016. Retrieved from http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2016-04/07/content_24352669.htmChina Daily. (2015, May). China to Invest $900 Billion in Belt and Road Initiative. Retrieved from http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2015-05/28/content_20845687.htmChina International Travel Service. (2016). A Bullet Train from Lanzhou to Urumqi. Retrieved from www.cits.net/china-guide/places/lanzhou-urumqi-railway.htmlClark, M. (2015, September). Understanding China’s Eurasian Pivot. The Diplomat. Retrieved from http://thediplomat.com/2015/09/understanding-chinas-eurasian-pivot/Cooper Ramo, J. (2007, February). Brand China. http://fpc.org.uk/fsblob/827.pdfDeepak, B. (2012, December). From China’s “Peaceful Rise” to “Peaceful Development”: The Rhetoric and MoreDibb, P. and Lee, J. 2014. Why China Will Not Become the Dominant Power in Asia. Regional Security. Retrieved from http://www.regionalsecurity.org.au/Resources/Documents/SC10-3DibbLee.pdfDollar, D. (2015, April). Lessons for the AIIB from the Experience of the World Bank. Brookings Institution. Retrieved from http://www.brookings.edu/research/articles/2015/04/27-china-on-global-stage-dollarECFR. (2016, June). Eurasian Integration: Caught Between Russia and China. European Council on Foreign Relations. Retrieved from http://www.ecfr.eu/article/essay_eurasianEurasianet. (2014, November). Central Asia: Can China’s Silk Road Vision Coexist with a Eurasian Union? Retrieved from www.eurasianet.org/node/70891Ferdinand, P. (2016). Westward Ho – the China Dream and “One Belt, One Road”: Chinese Foreign Policy Under Xi Jinping. The Royal Institute of International Affairs. Retrieved from https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/files/chathamhouse/publications/ia/INTA91_4_Ferdinand.pdf Fallon, T. (2015). The New Silk Road: Xi Jinping’s Grand Strategy for Eurasia. American Foreign Policy Interests. Retrieved from http://www.ou.edu/uschina/texts/Fallon.2015.AFPI.New_Silk_Road.pdfFinancial Times. (2016). New Silk Road Will Transport Laptops and Frozen Chicken. Retrieved from https://next.ft.com/content/e9d35df0-0bd8-11e6-9456-444ab5211a2fFinancial Times. (2016, June). IMF Sounds Warning on China’s Corporate Debt. Retrieved from https://next.ft.com/content/3f8dcf22-304c-11e6-bda0-04585c31b153Global Security. (2013). Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). GlobalSecurity.org. Retrieved from http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/int/sco.htmIbragimova, G. After 15 Years, the SCO Is Ready to Expand. Russia Direct. Retrieved from http://www.russia-direct.org/analysis/after-15-years-shanghai-cooperation-organization-ready-expandIkenberry, J. (2014, May 7). The Rise of China and the Future of Liberal World Order. 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