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題名 滙率變動對臺灣國際收支之影響 作者 劉瑞恒 貢獻者 滑明曙
劉瑞恒日期 1984 上傳時間 5-十二月-2016 17:16:39 (UTC+8) 摘要 第一章 緒論1 第一節 研究動機與目的1第二節 研究方法3 第三節 本文結構3 第二章 貨幣派國際收支與貶值理論5 第一節 貨幣派國際收支理論的淵源與發展5 第二節 貨幣派的貶值理論10 第三章 貶值效果的實證分析24 第一節 實際觀察估計法24 第二節 迴歸分析法28 第三節 模擬分析法32 第四章 台灣與世界經濟37 第一節 世界市場中台彎的經濟地位38 第二節 台灣的滙率制度42 第三節 台灣的滙率政策44 第五章 台灣的實證分析53 第一節 滙率變動前後外滙準備的變動54 第二節 實證模型的建立59 第三節 實證結果72 第四節 實證結果檢討100 第六章 結論111圖表目錄表 4 - 1：台灣GDP、輸出入值佔世界市場的比率39表 4 - 2：主要工業國家滙率表48表 4 - 3：貨幣供給額（M1B）與銀行體係國外淨資產比較表49圖 4 - 1：台灣地區進口單位價值指數、躉售物價指數、消費者物價指數、國內生產毛額平減指數長期趨勢圖41圖 4 - 2：台灣 GDPd 與世界 GDPd指數趨勢圖43圖 4 - 3：名目滙率指數趨勢圖45圖 4 - 4：貨幣供給（M 1B）與銀行體係國外淨資產長期趨勢圖47表 5 - 1：62年2月台幣升值前後外滙準備變動57表 5 - 2：67年7月台幣升值前後外滙準備變動57表 5 - 3：70年8月台幣貶值前後外滙準備變動58表 5 - 4：消費者物價指數變動率表63表 5 - 5：台灣地區國際收支簡表66表 5 - 6：世界通貨膨脹率69表 5 - 7：1964年1 ~ 1978年Ⅳ迴歸結果表91表 5 - 8：外滙資產成長率殘差表（61年I～64年I）96表 5 - 9：外滙資產成長率殘差表（66年Ⅲ～69年Ⅲ）96表 5 - 10：外滙資產成長率殘差表（69年Ⅲ～72年Ⅳ）96圖 5 - 1：台灣地區消費者物價指數變動率圖64圖 5 - 2：世界通貨膨脹率及標準差70圖 5 - 3：外滙資產實際成長率gR與估計成長率ĝ R趨勢圖（61年I～64年I）97圖 5 - 4：外滙資產實際成長率gR與估計成長率ĝ R趨勢圖（66年Ⅲ～69年Ⅲ）98圖 5 - 5：外滙資產實際成長率gR與估計成長率ĝ R趨勢圖（69年Ⅲ～72年Ⅳ）99圖 5 - 6：世界消費者物價指數，台灣消費者物價指數，台灣躉售物價指數變動率趨勢圖 100 參考文獻 一、中文部分：1.宋健治：「貶值的彈性分析與台灣的驗證」，台北市銀月刊，第十四卷第五期，72年5月。2.______「貶值的吸納分析與台灣的驗證」，台灣經濟金融月刊第十九卷，第一期，72年1月。3.周宜魁：「國際金融」，政大貿研所講義，1981（未出版）。4.周麗涓：「國際收支貨幣分析法之理論與實證研究」，台北市銀月刊，第十四卷，第七期，73年7月。5.施鷹艶：「台灣輸出入商品彈性之測量：1961～1974」，政大貿研所碩士論文，民國64年6月。6.許日和：「台灣進出口貿易的所得與價格彈性」，經濟論文，第一卷第一期，中央研究院出版，民國62年3月。7.彭淮南：「台灣地區歷年之對外收支」，台灣銀行季刊第二十七卷第四期，民國65年12年。8.張彗芬：「新台幣應否於1974年或1975年對美元貶值以修正貿易逆差」，輔仁學誌法商學院之部，第十期，民國67年。9.滑明曙：「台灣輸出與輸出物價的決定因素」，經濟專論，中華經濟研究院，台北，台灣，民國71年9月。10.______：「世界物價齊一論與國際間通貨膨脹的傳遞：對台灣之實證研究」，經濟專論，中華經濟研究院，台北，台灣，民國72年9月。11.______：「貨幣因素對台灣國際收支的影響：對貨幣分析論的檢驗」，經濟專論，中華經濟研究院，台北，台灣，民國73年12月。12.劉錦添：「台灣國際收支的實證研究」，政大貿研所碩士論文，民國67年。13.鄒繼楚：「浮動滙率與外滙管理－論機動滙率下的滙率動向與管理」，69年，文化大學碩士論文。14.蕭美珠：「購買力平價論－台灣實證之研究」，政大貿研所碩士論文，民國72年6月。15.鄭秀芬：「外滙市場操作之研究」，政大貿研所碩士論文，民國72年6月。二、英文部份：1. Aukrust, ODD: "Inflation in The Open Economy: A Norwegian Model," Artikler 9, 1977.2. Askari, H., Bizien, Y. and Hossain, E., "The Success of Some Devaluations and Revaluation In The Post-War ERA," International Monetary Fund Staff Paper.3. Akhtar, M. A.,: "Some Common Misconceptions About The Monetary Approach to International Adjustment," Essay In The Monetary Approach to International Adijustment, Praeger Publishers, 1978, P.117.4. Baumol,, W. J., "The Transactions Demand for Cash-An Inventory Theortic Approach," Quarterly Journal of Economics, 66, November 1952, PP. 545-556.5. Branson, W. H., "The Trade effects of The 1971 Currency Realignments," Brooking Papers On Economic Activity, 1972:1, PP. 15-58.6. Ball, B. J., Burns, T. and Laury, J. S. E., "The Rule of Exchange Rate Change In Balance of Payments Adjustment-The United Kingdom Case," The Economic Journal, March, 1977.7. Boyer, R. S., "Devaluation and Portfolio Balance," The American Economic Review, March, 1977.8. Cooper, R. N., "An Assessment of Currency Devaluation in Developing countries," Government and Economic Development, Chapter 13, Edited by Gustav Ranis, Economic Growth Center, Yale University New Haven: Yale University Press, 1971 (a).9. _______:"Currency Devaluation in Developing Countries", Essay In International Finance, No.86, Princeton University Press. 1971 (b).10. Clark, P. B. "The Effects of Recent Exchange rate Change on The U.S. Trade Balance," Essay In The Effect of Exchange Rate Adjustments, Washington: Treasury Dept., OASIA, 1974.11. Connolly M., Taylor, D., "Testing the Monetary Approach to Devaluation in Developing Countries, " Journal of Political Economy 84, PP. 849-859., 1976.12.________ , "Exchange Rate Change and Neutralization: A Test of The Monetary Approach Applied to Developed and Developing Countries," Economica, Aug. 1977, PP. 281-294.13. Dornbusch, R., "Currency Depreciation, Hoarding and Relative Prices," Journal of Political Economy 81, No. 4. (July/August 1973): PP. 893-915.14.________ , "Devaluation, Money and Non-Traded Goods," The American Economic Review, Dec. 1973, PP. 871-83.15.________ , "Open Economy Macroeconomics," Basic Books, Inc. Publishers New York, 1980.16. Friedman, M. "The Quantity Theory of Money, A Restatement." in Milton Firedmen ed., Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money, Chicago: Univ. of Chicago Press, 1956.17. Flanders, M. J., "The Effects of Devaluation on Exports: A Case Study United Kingdom, 1949-1954," The Bulletin, 1973.18. Frenkel, J. A. & Rodriguze, C.A., "Portfolio Equilibrium and The Balance of Payments: A Monetay Approach," The American Review, Sept. 1975.19. Frenkel, J. A., Johnson, H. G., "The Monetary Approacch to The Balance of Payments: Essential Concepts and Historical Origins," Essay In The Monetary Approuch to The Balance of Payments, edited by Frenkel, J. A. & Johnson, H. G., Toronto, Comada: University of Toyonto Press, 1976.20. Goldstein, M. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Wages and Prices in The United Kingdom: A Empirical Study," International Monetary Fund Staff Papers.21. Halevi, N., "Effective Devaluation and Exports: Some Issues in Empirical Analysis, With Illustration from Israel," Economica, August, 1972.22. Horne, J., "The Effect of Devaluation on the Balance of Payments and the Labour Market: United Kingdom, 1967," Economica, February, 1979.23. Humphery, T. M., Keleher, K. E., "Monetary Approach to The Balance of Payments, Exchange Rates, and World Inflation," Praeger Publisher, 1982.24. Johnson, H. G., "Towards a General Theory of The Balance of Payments," International Trade and Economic Growth, London, George Allen & Unwin, 1958. PP.153-68.25. _______,"The Monetary Approach to Balance-of-Payments Theory," Further Essays In Monetary Theory, London, George Allen & Unwin, 1972.26._______, "The Monetary Approach to The Balance of Payments: A Nontechnical Guide," Journal of International Economica, August, 1977.27._______ , The Monetary Approoch to Balance of Payments Theory and Policy: Explanation and Policy Implications," Economica, August, 1977.28.________ , "The Monetary Theroy of Balance-of-Payments Policies," Essay in The Monetary Approach to The Balance of Payments, edited by Frenkel, J. A. Johnson, H. G., PP. 262-287.29. Jones, R. W. & Corden, W. M., "Devaluation, Non-flexible Price and The Trade Balance for A Small Country," Canadian Journal of Economics, February, 1974.30. Kwack, S. Y., "The Effect of Foreign Inflation On Domestic Prices and The Relative Price Advantage of Exchange-Rate Change," Essay In The Effect of Exchange Rate Adjustments, Washington: Treasury Dept, OASIA, 1974.31. Kemp, M. C., "The Balance of Payments and The Terms of Trade in Relation to Financial Control," Reveiw of Economic Studies, 37, PP. 25-31. 1970.32. Kemp, O. S., "A Monetary View of The Balance of Payments, St. Louis. Federal Reserve Bank Review, April, 1975, PP. 14-22.33. Kuska, E. A., "The Pure Theory of Devaluation," Economica, August 1972.34.________ , "Devaluation, Equi-Proportional Export Subsidies and Import Tariffs, and Transfer Payments," Economica, May, 1976.35.________ , "The Post-Devaluation Time Profile of Reserves and Prices Under Neoclassical Assumptions," Economica, August, 1977.36. Kreinin, M. E. & Officer, L. H., "The Monetary Approach to The Balance of Payments: A Survey of Monetary Approach," International Finance Section, Department of Economics, Princeton University, 1978.37. Lapan, H., Enders, W., "Devaluation, Wealth effects, and Relative Prices," The American Economic Review, September, 1974.38. Laffer, A. B., "Exchange Rates, The Terms of Trade, and the Trade Balance," In The Effects of Exchange Rate Ajustments, Washington: Treasury Dept. OASIA, 1974.39. Miller, Merton H. and Daniel Orr. 1966, "A Model of the Demand for Money by Firms," Quarterly Journal of Economics, November 1966, PP. 413-35.40. Mundell, R.A. "Monetary Theory," Pacific Palisades, Calif: Goodyear, 1971.41. Mussa M., "Tariffs and The Balance of Payments: A Monetary Approach," Essay In The Monetary Approach to The Balance of Payments edited by Frenkel, J. A. & Johnson, H. G., PP. 187-221.42. ________, "A Monetary Approach to Balance of Payments Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, August, 1974.43. Pindyck, R. S. and Rubinfeld, D. L., "Economic Models and Economic Forecasts," McGraw-Hill Book Co. 1976. New York.44. Polak, J. J., 1957, " Monetary Analysis of Income Formation and Payments Problems," IMF Staff Papers, 6, November 1957, PP. 1-50.45. Magee, S. P., "The Empirical Evidence on The Monetary: Approach to The Balance of Payments and Exchange Rates," American Economic Review 66. May, 1976.46. Maddala, G. S., "Econometrics," New York: McGraw-Hill, 1977.47. Miles, M. A., "Devalvation, The Trade Balance, and The Balance of Payments," Marcel Dekker, Inc, New York and Basel, 1978.48._______ , "The Effects of Devaluation on the Trade Balance and The Balance of Payments : Some New Results," Journal of Political Economy Vol 87, No. 3, 1979.49. Riechel, K. W., "Economic Effects of Exchange-Rate Changes," D.C. Health and Company, 1978.50. Robinson, W. & Webb, T. R. and Townsend, M. A., "The Influence of Exchange Rate Change on Proces: A Study of 18 Industrial Countries," Economica, February, 1979.51. Salant, M., "Devaluations Improve The Balance of Payments Even if Not The Trade Balance," Essay In The Effects of Exchange Rate Adjustments, Washington: Treasury Dept. OASIA, 1974.52. Tobin, J., 1956, "The Interest Elasticity of Transactions Demand for Cash," Review of Economics & Statistics, 38, August 1956, PP. 241-247.53. Tsiang, S. C., 1977, "The Monetary Theoretic Foundation of the Modern Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments, Oxford Economic Papers, 29, November 1977, PP. 319-338.54. Thirlwall, A. P., "Balance-of-Payments and the United Kingdom Experience," 1980. 華泰書局翻印版。55. Whitman. M. N., 1975, "Global Monetarism and the Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,, No. 3, 1975, PP. 491-536.56. Wilson, J. F. & Takacs, W. E., "Differential Responses to Price and Exchange rate Influences in the Foreign Trade of Selected Industrial Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, May, 1979.57. National Institute of Economic and Social Research, "The Effects of The Devaluation of 1967 on The Current Balance of Payments," The Economic Journal, Vol, 82 (Supplement), P.442-64. 關聯 國立政治大學
國際貿易研究所
碩士
73資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 滑明曙 dc.contributor.author (作者) 劉瑞恒 dc.creator (作者) 劉瑞恒 zh_TW dc.date (日期) 1984 dc.date.accessioned 5-十二月-2016 17:16:39 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 5-十二月-2016 17:16:39 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 5-十二月-2016 17:16:39 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/104561 - dc.description.abstract (摘要) 第一章 緒論1 第一節 研究動機與目的1第二節 研究方法3 第三節 本文結構3 第二章 貨幣派國際收支與貶值理論5 第一節 貨幣派國際收支理論的淵源與發展5 第二節 貨幣派的貶值理論10 第三章 貶值效果的實證分析24 第一節 實際觀察估計法24 第二節 迴歸分析法28 第三節 模擬分析法32 第四章 台灣與世界經濟37 第一節 世界市場中台彎的經濟地位38 第二節 台灣的滙率制度42 第三節 台灣的滙率政策44 第五章 台灣的實證分析53 第一節 滙率變動前後外滙準備的變動54 第二節 實證模型的建立59 第三節 實證結果72 第四節 實證結果檢討100 第六章 結論111圖表目錄表 4 - 1：台灣GDP、輸出入值佔世界市場的比率39表 4 - 2：主要工業國家滙率表48表 4 - 3：貨幣供給額（M1B）與銀行體係國外淨資產比較表49圖 4 - 1：台灣地區進口單位價值指數、躉售物價指數、消費者物價指數、國內生產毛額平減指數長期趨勢圖41圖 4 - 2：台灣 GDPd 與世界 GDPd指數趨勢圖43圖 4 - 3：名目滙率指數趨勢圖45圖 4 - 4：貨幣供給（M 1B）與銀行體係國外淨資產長期趨勢圖47表 5 - 1：62年2月台幣升值前後外滙準備變動57表 5 - 2：67年7月台幣升值前後外滙準備變動57表 5 - 3：70年8月台幣貶值前後外滙準備變動58表 5 - 4：消費者物價指數變動率表63表 5 - 5：台灣地區國際收支簡表66表 5 - 6：世界通貨膨脹率69表 5 - 7：1964年1 ~ 1978年Ⅳ迴歸結果表91表 5 - 8：外滙資產成長率殘差表（61年I～64年I）96表 5 - 9：外滙資產成長率殘差表（66年Ⅲ～69年Ⅲ）96表 5 - 10：外滙資產成長率殘差表（69年Ⅲ～72年Ⅳ）96圖 5 - 1：台灣地區消費者物價指數變動率圖64圖 5 - 2：世界通貨膨脹率及標準差70圖 5 - 3：外滙資產實際成長率gR與估計成長率ĝ R趨勢圖（61年I～64年I）97圖 5 - 4：外滙資產實際成長率gR與估計成長率ĝ R趨勢圖（66年Ⅲ～69年Ⅲ）98圖 5 - 5：外滙資產實際成長率gR與估計成長率ĝ R趨勢圖（69年Ⅲ～72年Ⅳ）99圖 5 - 6：世界消費者物價指數，台灣消費者物價指數，台灣躉售物價指數變動率趨勢圖 100 dc.format.extent 115 bytes - dc.format.mimetype text/html - dc.relation (關聯) 國立政治大學 dc.relation (關聯) 國際貿易研究所 dc.relation (關聯) 碩士 dc.relation (關聯) 73 dc.title (題名) 滙率變動對臺灣國際收支之影響 zh_TW dc.type (資料類型) thesis dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、中文部分：1.宋健治：「貶值的彈性分析與台灣的驗證」，台北市銀月刊，第十四卷第五期，72年5月。2.______「貶值的吸納分析與台灣的驗證」，台灣經濟金融月刊第十九卷，第一期，72年1月。3.周宜魁：「國際金融」，政大貿研所講義，1981（未出版）。4.周麗涓：「國際收支貨幣分析法之理論與實證研究」，台北市銀月刊，第十四卷，第七期，73年7月。5.施鷹艶：「台灣輸出入商品彈性之測量：1961～1974」，政大貿研所碩士論文，民國64年6月。6.許日和：「台灣進出口貿易的所得與價格彈性」，經濟論文，第一卷第一期，中央研究院出版，民國62年3月。7.彭淮南：「台灣地區歷年之對外收支」，台灣銀行季刊第二十七卷第四期，民國65年12年。8.張彗芬：「新台幣應否於1974年或1975年對美元貶值以修正貿易逆差」，輔仁學誌法商學院之部，第十期，民國67年。9.滑明曙：「台灣輸出與輸出物價的決定因素」，經濟專論，中華經濟研究院，台北，台灣，民國71年9月。10.______：「世界物價齊一論與國際間通貨膨脹的傳遞：對台灣之實證研究」，經濟專論，中華經濟研究院，台北，台灣，民國72年9月。11.______：「貨幣因素對台灣國際收支的影響：對貨幣分析論的檢驗」，經濟專論，中華經濟研究院，台北，台灣，民國73年12月。12.劉錦添：「台灣國際收支的實證研究」，政大貿研所碩士論文，民國67年。13.鄒繼楚：「浮動滙率與外滙管理－論機動滙率下的滙率動向與管理」，69年，文化大學碩士論文。14.蕭美珠：「購買力平價論－台灣實證之研究」，政大貿研所碩士論文，民國72年6月。15.鄭秀芬：「外滙市場操作之研究」，政大貿研所碩士論文，民國72年6月。二、英文部份：1. Aukrust, ODD: "Inflation in The Open Economy: A Norwegian Model," Artikler 9, 1977.2. Askari, H., Bizien, Y. and Hossain, E., "The Success of Some Devaluations and Revaluation In The Post-War ERA," International Monetary Fund Staff Paper.3. Akhtar, M. A.,: "Some Common Misconceptions About The Monetary Approach to International Adjustment," Essay In The Monetary Approach to International Adijustment, Praeger Publishers, 1978, P.117.4. Baumol,, W. J., "The Transactions Demand for Cash-An Inventory Theortic Approach," Quarterly Journal of Economics, 66, November 1952, PP. 545-556.5. Branson, W. H., "The Trade effects of The 1971 Currency Realignments," Brooking Papers On Economic Activity, 1972:1, PP. 15-58.6. Ball, B. J., Burns, T. and Laury, J. S. E., "The Rule of Exchange Rate Change In Balance of Payments Adjustment-The United Kingdom Case," The Economic Journal, March, 1977.7. Boyer, R. S., "Devaluation and Portfolio Balance," The American Economic Review, March, 1977.8. Cooper, R. N., "An Assessment of Currency Devaluation in Developing countries," Government and Economic Development, Chapter 13, Edited by Gustav Ranis, Economic Growth Center, Yale University New Haven: Yale University Press, 1971 (a).9. _______:"Currency Devaluation in Developing Countries", Essay In International Finance, No.86, Princeton University Press. 1971 (b).10. Clark, P. B. "The Effects of Recent Exchange rate Change on The U.S. Trade Balance," Essay In The Effect of Exchange Rate Adjustments, Washington: Treasury Dept., OASIA, 1974.11. Connolly M., Taylor, D., "Testing the Monetary Approach to Devaluation in Developing Countries, " Journal of Political Economy 84, PP. 849-859., 1976.12.________ , "Exchange Rate Change and Neutralization: A Test of The Monetary Approach Applied to Developed and Developing Countries," Economica, Aug. 1977, PP. 281-294.13. Dornbusch, R., "Currency Depreciation, Hoarding and Relative Prices," Journal of Political Economy 81, No. 4. 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