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題名 台灣住宅價格、住宅負擔能力與生育率之關係
The relationship between house price, housing affordability and fertility rates in Taiwan作者 張聖昊
Chang, Sheng Hao貢獻者 陳鎮洲
張聖昊
Chang, Sheng Hao關鍵詞 生育率
房價所得比
建物買賣移轉棟數
自有住宅率
追蹤資料
The fertility rate
Housing price to income ratio
The number of building transferred
Homeownership rate
Panel data日期 2017 上傳時間 31-七月-2017 11:20:27 (UTC+8) 摘要 近年來國人晚婚、不婚、晚育或不育的現象持續惡化，衍伸出高齡少子化所帶來之人口結構惡化已是國家安全層次議題。本研究以實證方式探討影響台灣地區生育率之主要因素，並著重住宅價格（房價所得比）、住宅交易數量（建物買賣移轉棟數）及存量（自有住宅率）之變化與總生育率之關聯性。探究近年我國房價變化、持有自有住宅比率及住宅市場之交易活絡程度是否會影響家戶單位生育決策。 研究針對西元2002年至西元2015年間台灣地區20縣市共280筆追蹤資料(Panel data)，在控制時間效果下運用傳統最小平方法、固定效果模型及隨機效果模型對資料進行迴歸分析。研究結果顯示：在考慮生育率落後一期情境下，同時控制時間及區域效果模型中發現：房價所得比與總生育率呈現顯著正相關，建物買賣移轉棟數與總生育率呈現顯著負相關，自有住宅率雖與總生育率為正相關但未達顯著水準。而其他影響總生育率之主要變數：女性受高等教育比率及粗結婚率與總生育率成顯著正相關。失業率與總生育率則為顯著負相關。研究結果可發現，可能由於我國高度自有住宅率之特性，房價上漲帶來之財富效果是導致房價所得比與生育率呈現正向關係之成因。建物買賣移轉棟數與總生育率呈現負向關係，研判來自於家戶購屋初期通常需付出一筆為數不小之頭期款，短期間內將耗用家戶較多經濟資源，進而排擠家戶單位短期生育決策。
In recent years, more and more Taiwanese tend to marry at a later age, or remain unmarried, or bear children at a later age or not at all. The problems of population aging and low birth rate have led to the worsened population structure, which has become an issue of national security. This empirical study investigated the factors that contributed to the present low birth rate in Taiwan. The study emphasized the relationships between housing price to income ratio, the number of housing transferred, homeownership rate and total fertility rate (TFR). This study also tried to investigate how the aforementioned three factors affect the childbearing decision of family units. The study focused on a panel data set with 280 samples that was collected across 20 cities and counties in Taiwan from 2002 to 2015. Ordinary least squares, fixed effects model and random effects model were used, and time effect are controlled in all models. The results showed that, after controlling for the time and regional effects, the housing price to income ratio had a positive relationship with the lag TFR. The number of building transferred had a negative relationship with the lag TFR. The homeownership rate had an insignificant negative relationship with the lag TFR. Other factors also affected the lag TFR. For example, the ratio of females who received higher education and crude marriage rates had a significant positive effect. The unemployment rate had a significant negative relationship with the lag TFR. The results might imply that, given the high homeownership rate in Taiwan, the rise in housing price increase “wealth effect’’ which is the reason for the positive relationship between housing price to income ratio and lag TFR. The reason for the negative relationship between the number of building transferred and lag TFR could be the huge financial burden of down payment when a family purchases a house. This burden takes out a huge portion from the budget, and therefore family units might decide to delay having children for a short period.參考文獻 中文參考文獻李美惠（2008)。女性勞動參與率、高等教育率、結婚率及女性失業率對台灣地區生育率之影響－以縱斷面VAR模式為實證研究。多國籍企業管理評論，2(2)，93-110。林侑靜（2010）。教育對於生育行為的影響。國立中央大學產業經濟研究所碩士學位論文。林彥伶（2013）。老年經濟保障動對生育的排擠效果-台灣的實證分析。中央研究院經濟研究所論文，41(2)，255-295。林佩萱、張金鶚（2016）。沒有房子不生孩子?買了房子不敢生孩子?購屋對家戶婚後生育時間影響之研究。台灣社會學刊，第59期，93-138。林佩萱 (2015)。家戶購屋與生育行為關係：資源排擠與動機刺激。住宅學報，24(1)，89-115。吳閔鈺（2007）。自有住宅與生育決策-台灣地區之實證分析。國立政治大學財政研究所碩士論文。洪文娟（2005）。台灣地區大學學雜費調漲對生育率的影響。國立政治大學行政管理研究所碩士論文。陳彥竹（2015）。房價對生育率的影響-以台灣20縣市為例。國立中央大學產業經濟研究所在職專班碩士論文。陳文意、周美伶、林玉惠、陳明吉（2013）。抑制房價以提高生育率：以台北都會區為例。都市與計畫，40(2)，191-216。黃台心（2005）。計量經濟學（第一版）。台北：雙葉出版社。黃智聰、黃修梅（2005年12月）。台灣地區婦女學歷對生育率影響之再審視。台灣經濟學年會，國立政治大學財政研究所，台北。彭建文、蔡怡純（2012）。住宅負擔能力與住宅自有率之長期關係－追蹤資料共整合分析應用。住宅學報，21(2)，1-28。彭建文、蔡怡純（2012）。住宅自有率對生育率之長短期影響－追蹤資料共整合分析應用。人口學刊，第44期，57-86。張卉婷（2014）。房地產價格與生育率之相關性研究：台灣的實證資料之檢視。淡江大學公共行政學系公共政策碩士班碩士論文。楊靜利（2005）。台灣的人口問題。台灣的社會問題，第2章，38-64，台北：巨流出版社。劉志宏（2009）。兩岸房市的丈母娘效應。中國時報，第15版，9月15日。劉君雅、鄧志松、唐代彪（2009）。台灣低生育率之空間分析。人口學刊，第39期，119-155。劉志宏、張卉婷（2014）。房地產價格與生育率之相關性研究：台灣的實證資料之檢視。公共事務評論，15(2)。賴思帆（2005）。生育率模型與台灣地區各縣市生育率之實證研究。國立政治大學統計研究所碩士論文。駱明慶（2007）。台灣總生育率下降的表象與實際。研究台灣，No.3，37-60。薛立敏、陳綉里(1997)。台灣1980年代住宅自有率變化之探討。住宅學報，6，27-48。蘇于婷（2012）。台灣生育率之研究。國立暨南大學經濟學系研究所碩士學位論文。外文參考文獻Becker, Gary S. (1960). An Economic Analysis of Fertility. National Bureau of Economic Research, 209-231.Becker, Gary S. (1991). A Treatise on the Family. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.Caldwell, John C. (1982).Theory of Fertility Decline. New York: Academic Press.Inc.Central Intelligence Agency. (2016).The World Factbook, Retrieved December 3, 2016, from https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/resources/the-world-factbook/Rankorder/2127rank.htmlDettling, Lisa and Melissa Kearney. (2011).House Prices and Birth Rates: The Impact of the Real Estate Market on the Decision to Have a Baby. NBER Working Paper No.17485.Retrieved December 30, 2016, from http://www.nber.org/papers/w17485.Feijten, Peteke and Clara H.Mulder. (2002).The Timing of Household Events and Housing Events in The Netherlands: A Longitudinal Perspective. Housing Studies, 17(5), 773-792.Hausman, Jerry. (1978). Specification Tests in Econometrics. Econometrica, 46 (6), 1251-1271.Lindo, Jason. (2010). Are Children Really Inferior Goods? Evidence from Displacement-Driven Income Shocks. The Journal of Human Resources, 45(2), 301-327.Mulder, Clara and Michael Wagner. (2001). The Connections between Family Formation and First-Time Home Ownership in the Context of West Germany and the Netherlands. European Journal of Population, 17(2), 137-164.Madigan, M.Munro and S. J. Smith. (1990).Gender and the Meaning of Home, International Journal of Urban and Regional Research,14,625-647.Mulder, Clara. (2006).Population and Housing: A Two-Sided Relationship. Demographic Research, 15(3), 401-412.Mulder, Clara. (2006).Home-Ownership and Family Formation. Journal of Housing and the Built Environment, 21(3), 281-298.Mincer, J. (1963). Market Prices, Opportunity Costs, and Income Effects. Measurement in Economics: Studies in Mathematical Economics in Honor of Yehuda Grunfeld, 67-82. Edited by C. F. Christ et al.Stanford: Stanford University Press.Schultz, Paul. (1985). Women’s Wages and Fertility Transition: Sweden, 1860-1910.Journal of Political Economy, 93(6), 1126-1154Sundström, Marianne and Stafford, Frank P.(1992).Female Labor Force Participation, Fertility and Public Policy in Sweden﹐European Journal of Population,No.8,199-215Sweeney, Megan M. (2002).Two decade of Family Change: the Shifting Economic Foundations of Marriage. American Sociological Review, 67(1), 132-147The Economist. (2011). Asia’s Lonely Hearts. Retrieved January 20, 2017, from http://www.economist.com/node/21526350Willis, Robert. (1973).A New Approach to the Economic Theory of Fertility behavior, 11(3), 297-321Yi, Junjian and Zhang, Junsen. (2010).The effect of house price on fertility: evidence from Hong Kong. Economic Inquiry, 48(3), 635-650 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
行政管理碩士學程
103921005資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0103921005 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 陳鎮洲 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (作者) 張聖昊 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (作者) Chang, Sheng Hao en_US dc.creator (作者) 張聖昊 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Chang, Sheng Hao en_US dc.date (日期) 2017 en_US dc.date.accessioned 31-七月-2017 11:20:27 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 31-七月-2017 11:20:27 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 31-七月-2017 11:20:27 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) G0103921005 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/111537 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 行政管理碩士學程 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 103921005 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 近年來國人晚婚、不婚、晚育或不育的現象持續惡化，衍伸出高齡少子化所帶來之人口結構惡化已是國家安全層次議題。本研究以實證方式探討影響台灣地區生育率之主要因素，並著重住宅價格（房價所得比）、住宅交易數量（建物買賣移轉棟數）及存量（自有住宅率）之變化與總生育率之關聯性。探究近年我國房價變化、持有自有住宅比率及住宅市場之交易活絡程度是否會影響家戶單位生育決策。 研究針對西元2002年至西元2015年間台灣地區20縣市共280筆追蹤資料(Panel data)，在控制時間效果下運用傳統最小平方法、固定效果模型及隨機效果模型對資料進行迴歸分析。研究結果顯示：在考慮生育率落後一期情境下，同時控制時間及區域效果模型中發現：房價所得比與總生育率呈現顯著正相關，建物買賣移轉棟數與總生育率呈現顯著負相關，自有住宅率雖與總生育率為正相關但未達顯著水準。而其他影響總生育率之主要變數：女性受高等教育比率及粗結婚率與總生育率成顯著正相關。失業率與總生育率則為顯著負相關。研究結果可發現，可能由於我國高度自有住宅率之特性，房價上漲帶來之財富效果是導致房價所得比與生育率呈現正向關係之成因。建物買賣移轉棟數與總生育率呈現負向關係，研判來自於家戶購屋初期通常需付出一筆為數不小之頭期款，短期間內將耗用家戶較多經濟資源，進而排擠家戶單位短期生育決策。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) In recent years, more and more Taiwanese tend to marry at a later age, or remain unmarried, or bear children at a later age or not at all. The problems of population aging and low birth rate have led to the worsened population structure, which has become an issue of national security. This empirical study investigated the factors that contributed to the present low birth rate in Taiwan. The study emphasized the relationships between housing price to income ratio, the number of housing transferred, homeownership rate and total fertility rate (TFR). This study also tried to investigate how the aforementioned three factors affect the childbearing decision of family units. The study focused on a panel data set with 280 samples that was collected across 20 cities and counties in Taiwan from 2002 to 2015. Ordinary least squares, fixed effects model and random effects model were used, and time effect are controlled in all models. The results showed that, after controlling for the time and regional effects, the housing price to income ratio had a positive relationship with the lag TFR. The number of building transferred had a negative relationship with the lag TFR. The homeownership rate had an insignificant negative relationship with the lag TFR. Other factors also affected the lag TFR. For example, the ratio of females who received higher education and crude marriage rates had a significant positive effect. The unemployment rate had a significant negative relationship with the lag TFR. The results might imply that, given the high homeownership rate in Taiwan, the rise in housing price increase “wealth effect’’ which is the reason for the positive relationship between housing price to income ratio and lag TFR. The reason for the negative relationship between the number of building transferred and lag TFR could be the huge financial burden of down payment when a family purchases a house. This burden takes out a huge portion from the budget, and therefore family units might decide to delay having children for a short period. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1第一節 研究背景與動機 1第二節 研究目的 7第三節 研究架構及流程 10第二章 文獻探討 11第一節 生育行為理論探討與文獻回顧 11第二節 擁房的目的與意義 17第三節 家戶購屋與生育行為的關係性 19第三章 變數選取與資料來源 21第一節 研究時空範圍及資料來源 21第二節 變數定義 22第三節 研究方法 29第四節 實證模型架構 31第四章 實證結果分析 34第一節 敘述統計 34第二節 實證結果 35第三節 本章小節 44第五章 結論與建議 45第一節 研究結論 46第二節 建議 49第三節 研究限制 52參考文獻 53 zh_TW dc.format.extent 957440 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0103921005 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 生育率 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 房價所得比 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 建物買賣移轉棟數 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 自有住宅率 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 追蹤資料 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) The fertility rate en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Housing price to income ratio en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) The number of building transferred en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Homeownership rate en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Panel data en_US dc.title (題名) 台灣住宅價格、住宅負擔能力與生育率之關係 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The relationship between house price, housing affordability and fertility rates in Taiwan en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中文參考文獻李美惠（2008)。女性勞動參與率、高等教育率、結婚率及女性失業率對台灣地區生育率之影響－以縱斷面VAR模式為實證研究。多國籍企業管理評論，2(2)，93-110。林侑靜（2010）。教育對於生育行為的影響。國立中央大學產業經濟研究所碩士學位論文。林彥伶（2013）。老年經濟保障動對生育的排擠效果-台灣的實證分析。中央研究院經濟研究所論文，41(2)，255-295。林佩萱、張金鶚（2016）。沒有房子不生孩子?買了房子不敢生孩子?購屋對家戶婚後生育時間影響之研究。台灣社會學刊，第59期，93-138。林佩萱 (2015)。家戶購屋與生育行為關係：資源排擠與動機刺激。住宅學報，24(1)，89-115。吳閔鈺（2007）。自有住宅與生育決策-台灣地區之實證分析。國立政治大學財政研究所碩士論文。洪文娟（2005）。台灣地區大學學雜費調漲對生育率的影響。國立政治大學行政管理研究所碩士論文。陳彥竹（2015）。房價對生育率的影響-以台灣20縣市為例。國立中央大學產業經濟研究所在職專班碩士論文。陳文意、周美伶、林玉惠、陳明吉（2013）。抑制房價以提高生育率：以台北都會區為例。都市與計畫，40(2)，191-216。黃台心（2005）。計量經濟學（第一版）。台北：雙葉出版社。黃智聰、黃修梅（2005年12月）。台灣地區婦女學歷對生育率影響之再審視。台灣經濟學年會，國立政治大學財政研究所，台北。彭建文、蔡怡純（2012）。住宅負擔能力與住宅自有率之長期關係－追蹤資料共整合分析應用。住宅學報，21(2)，1-28。彭建文、蔡怡純（2012）。住宅自有率對生育率之長短期影響－追蹤資料共整合分析應用。人口學刊，第44期，57-86。張卉婷（2014）。房地產價格與生育率之相關性研究：台灣的實證資料之檢視。淡江大學公共行政學系公共政策碩士班碩士論文。楊靜利（2005）。台灣的人口問題。台灣的社會問題，第2章，38-64，台北：巨流出版社。劉志宏（2009）。兩岸房市的丈母娘效應。中國時報，第15版，9月15日。劉君雅、鄧志松、唐代彪（2009）。台灣低生育率之空間分析。人口學刊，第39期，119-155。劉志宏、張卉婷（2014）。房地產價格與生育率之相關性研究：台灣的實證資料之檢視。公共事務評論，15(2)。賴思帆（2005）。生育率模型與台灣地區各縣市生育率之實證研究。國立政治大學統計研究所碩士論文。駱明慶（2007）。台灣總生育率下降的表象與實際。研究台灣，No.3，37-60。薛立敏、陳綉里(1997)。台灣1980年代住宅自有率變化之探討。住宅學報，6，27-48。蘇于婷（2012）。台灣生育率之研究。國立暨南大學經濟學系研究所碩士學位論文。外文參考文獻Becker, Gary S. (1960). An Economic Analysis of Fertility. National Bureau of Economic Research, 209-231.Becker, Gary S. (1991). A Treatise on the Family. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.Caldwell, John C. (1982).Theory of Fertility Decline. New York: Academic Press.Inc.Central Intelligence Agency. (2016).The World Factbook, Retrieved December 3, 2016, from https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/resources/the-world-factbook/Rankorder/2127rank.htmlDettling, Lisa and Melissa Kearney. (2011).House Prices and Birth Rates: The Impact of the Real Estate Market on the Decision to Have a Baby. NBER Working Paper No.17485.Retrieved December 30, 2016, from http://www.nber.org/papers/w17485.Feijten, Peteke and Clara H.Mulder. (2002).The Timing of Household Events and Housing Events in The Netherlands: A Longitudinal Perspective. Housing Studies, 17(5), 773-792.Hausman, Jerry. (1978). Specification Tests in Econometrics. Econometrica, 46 (6), 1251-1271.Lindo, Jason. (2010). 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