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題名 中介效果的時序設計與因果推論
Sequence Design and Causal Inference of Mediation Effect作者 洪兆祥
Hung, Chao-Hsiang貢獻者 余民寧
洪兆祥
Hung, Chao-Hsiang關鍵詞 中介模型
時序設計
因果推論
Mediation effect
Sequence design
Causal inference日期 2018 上傳時間 24-七月-2018 11:03:17 (UTC+8) 摘要 中介模型的本質在於解釋研究變數之間的因果傳遞機制，乃是當代社會科學領域中最常被使用的研究架構。然而大多數研究使用的橫斷中介設計，缺乏時間因素將難以進行因果推論的判斷，嚴重危害研究結果的正確性。本研究旨在探討中介模型如何進行完備的因果推論。其研究目的之一：探究中介模型的時序設計與因果推論的關係。其研究目的之二；探討現存的中介模型在因果推論上的完備條件。其研究目的之三：提出增強因果推論完備條件的可能策略為何。 本研究共有兩個子研究：研究一以443位國三學生為對象，採用五次模擬考成績為效標變數，並以「數學焦慮量表」、「數學學習動機量表」為工具，進行為期一年的追蹤測量。經描述統計分析、相關分析、路徑分析與中介檢定，結果顯示： 1. 在橫斷中介模型當中，數學焦慮為原因的因果推論較具完備條件。 2. 在序列中介模型當中，數學焦慮為原因的因果推論較具完備條件。 3. 在縱貫中介模型當中，數學焦慮為原因的因果推論，與數學學習動機為原因的因果推論，兩者的完備條件相當。 研究二以台灣青少年成長計畫資料庫當中的1529位國一學生為對象，分別選取親子互動、自尊與憂鬱做為研究變數，在八年之間時進行三次追蹤測量。經描述統計分析、相關分析、路徑分析與中介檢定，結果顯示： 1. 在橫斷中介當中，自尊的中介效果達顯著水準。 2. 在序列中介當中，自尊的中介效果達顯著水準。 3. 在縱貫中介當中，自尊的中介效果未達顯著水準。 本研究根據資料分析結果進行討論，並對未來研究提出建議。
The purpose of mediation model is to explain the causal transfer mechanism among variables and it is a commonly used research framework in social science. However, most of the studies adapted cross sectional mediation analysis, which lacked sufficient time in making causal inferences. Such a practice may lead to a severe inaccuracy in data interpretation. Therefore, this study aims to investigate how mediation models can achieve comprehensive causal inferences. The first research purpose is to examine the relationship between sequence design and causal inference of mediation models. The second research purpose is to investigate the comprehensiveness of the causal inferences in the existing mediation models. The third research purpose is to discuss possible strategies that can be used to enhance causal inference. There are two research conducted in this study. For the first research, the participants were 443 ninth graders underwent a one year panel measurement. Five mock exam grades were used as the criterion variable, and the anxiety of mathematic exam and the motivation of learning mathematic were the research variables. With descriptive analysis, correlational analysis, path analysis, and mediation test, the results are as follow: 1. In the cross-sectional mediation model, it is more adequate to assume the anxiety of mathematic exam as the reason from causal inference. 2. In the sequential mediation mode, it is more adequate to assume the anxiety of mathematic exam as the reason from causal inference. 3. In the longitudinal mediation model, the anxiety of mathematic exam and the motivation of learning mathematic as the reason from causal inference are equally adequate. The second research included 1529 seventh graders from TYP databased. Parent-child interaction, self-esteem and depression were used as the variables, and three panel measurements were taken over eight years. With descriptive analysis, correlational analysis, path analysis, and mediation analysis, the results are as follow: 1. In the cross-sectional mediation model, the mediation effect of self-esteem was significant. 2. In the sequential mediation mode, the mediation effect of self-esteem was significant. 3. In the longitudinal mediation model, the mediation effect of self-esteem was not significant. 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國立政治大學
教育學系
100152511資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0100152511 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 余民寧 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (作者) 洪兆祥 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (作者) Hung, Chao-Hsiang en_US dc.creator (作者) 洪兆祥 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Hung, Chao-Hsiang en_US dc.date (日期) 2018 en_US dc.date.accessioned 24-七月-2018 11:03:17 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 24-七月-2018 11:03:17 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 24-七月-2018 11:03:17 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) G0100152511 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/118840 - dc.description (描述) 博士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 教育學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 100152511 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 中介模型的本質在於解釋研究變數之間的因果傳遞機制，乃是當代社會科學領域中最常被使用的研究架構。然而大多數研究使用的橫斷中介設計，缺乏時間因素將難以進行因果推論的判斷，嚴重危害研究結果的正確性。本研究旨在探討中介模型如何進行完備的因果推論。其研究目的之一：探究中介模型的時序設計與因果推論的關係。其研究目的之二；探討現存的中介模型在因果推論上的完備條件。其研究目的之三：提出增強因果推論完備條件的可能策略為何。 本研究共有兩個子研究：研究一以443位國三學生為對象，採用五次模擬考成績為效標變數，並以「數學焦慮量表」、「數學學習動機量表」為工具，進行為期一年的追蹤測量。經描述統計分析、相關分析、路徑分析與中介檢定，結果顯示： 1. 在橫斷中介模型當中，數學焦慮為原因的因果推論較具完備條件。 2. 在序列中介模型當中，數學焦慮為原因的因果推論較具完備條件。 3. 在縱貫中介模型當中，數學焦慮為原因的因果推論，與數學學習動機為原因的因果推論，兩者的完備條件相當。 研究二以台灣青少年成長計畫資料庫當中的1529位國一學生為對象，分別選取親子互動、自尊與憂鬱做為研究變數，在八年之間時進行三次追蹤測量。經描述統計分析、相關分析、路徑分析與中介檢定，結果顯示： 1. 在橫斷中介當中，自尊的中介效果達顯著水準。 2. 在序列中介當中，自尊的中介效果達顯著水準。 3. 在縱貫中介當中，自尊的中介效果未達顯著水準。 本研究根據資料分析結果進行討論，並對未來研究提出建議。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) The purpose of mediation model is to explain the causal transfer mechanism among variables and it is a commonly used research framework in social science. However, most of the studies adapted cross sectional mediation analysis, which lacked sufficient time in making causal inferences. Such a practice may lead to a severe inaccuracy in data interpretation. Therefore, this study aims to investigate how mediation models can achieve comprehensive causal inferences. The first research purpose is to examine the relationship between sequence design and causal inference of mediation models. The second research purpose is to investigate the comprehensiveness of the causal inferences in the existing mediation models. The third research purpose is to discuss possible strategies that can be used to enhance causal inference. There are two research conducted in this study. For the first research, the participants were 443 ninth graders underwent a one year panel measurement. Five mock exam grades were used as the criterion variable, and the anxiety of mathematic exam and the motivation of learning mathematic were the research variables. With descriptive analysis, correlational analysis, path analysis, and mediation test, the results are as follow: 1. In the cross-sectional mediation model, it is more adequate to assume the anxiety of mathematic exam as the reason from causal inference. 2. In the sequential mediation mode, it is more adequate to assume the anxiety of mathematic exam as the reason from causal inference. 3. In the longitudinal mediation model, the anxiety of mathematic exam and the motivation of learning mathematic as the reason from causal inference are equally adequate. The second research included 1529 seventh graders from TYP databased. Parent-child interaction, self-esteem and depression were used as the variables, and three panel measurements were taken over eight years. With descriptive analysis, correlational analysis, path analysis, and mediation analysis, the results are as follow: 1. In the cross-sectional mediation model, the mediation effect of self-esteem was significant. 2. In the sequential mediation mode, the mediation effect of self-esteem was significant. 3. In the longitudinal mediation model, the mediation effect of self-esteem was not significant. The results and findings are discussed and implications for future research are also suggested. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究動機 1 第二節 研究目的 3 第三節 名詞解釋 3 第二章 文獻探討 5 第一節 因果推論的邏輯與影響因素 5 第二節 中介模型的原理及其應用 12 第三節 縱貫設計的中介模型 18 第四節 自我迴歸取向的中介模型 30 第五節 強化中介模型因果推論的可能策略 34 第三章 研究方法 37 第一節 研究一資料說明 37 第二節 研究二資料說明 39 第三節 分析模型 41 第四章 結果與討論 45 第一節 研究一：國三數學科模擬考資料分析結果 45 第二節 研究二：臺灣青少年成長歷程資料庫分析結果 65 第三節 綜合討論 74 第五章 結論與建議 77 第一節 結論 77 第二節 研究限制 79 第三節 研究建議 80 參考書目 83 zh_TW dc.format.extent 2417090 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0100152511 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 中介模型 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 時序設計 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 因果推論 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Mediation effect en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Sequence design en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Causal inference en_US dc.title (題名) 中介效果的時序設計與因果推論 zh_TW dc.title (題名) Sequence Design and Causal Inference of Mediation Effect en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 王金香（2010）。焦慮與動機影響數學學習之縱貫研究（未出版之博士論文）。國立政治大學，臺北市。 伊慶春(2012a)。台灣青少年成長歷程研究：國一樣本(J1)第四波，青少年問卷 (公共版)(C00179_3)【原始數據】取自中央研究院人文社會科學研究中心調查研究專題中心學術調查研究資料庫。 伊慶春(2012b)。台灣青少年成長歷程研究：國一樣本(J1)第八波，青少年問卷 (公共版)(C00272_2)【原始數據】取自中央研究院人文社會科學研究中心調查研究專題中心學術調查研究資料庫。 伊慶春(2014)。台灣青少年成長歷程研究：國一樣本(J1)第一波，青少年問卷 (公共版)(C00176_4)【原始數據】取自中央研究院人文社會科學研究中心調查研究專題中心學術調查研究資料庫。 余民寧(2013)。縱貫性資料分析—LGM的應用。臺北市：心理。 吳明隆、葛建志（2006）。國民小學學生數學歸因信念, 數學態度, 數學焦慮與數學成就之相關研究。高雄師大學報，21，1-18。 吳欣璇、金瑞芝(2011)。華人家庭文化脈絡下新住民母親的親子關係：以一越南出生與柬埔寨長大的新住民母親為例。應用心理研究，51，111-148。 吳齊殷、黃鈺婷(2010)。青少年初期身心健康變化及其動態影響變因之討論。中華心理衛生學刊，23(4)，535-562。 李仁豪（2005）。以結構方程模式探討並驗證成就目標與學習行為的關係。教育與心理研究，28（3），551-580。 林杏足(2003)。青少年自尊量表編製報告。測驗學刊，50(2)，223-256。 邱皓政（2017）。多層次模式與縱貫資料分析：Mplus8解析應用。臺北市：五南。 邱皓政、孫國勛（2011）。調查數據的事實與反事實研究：以商管學生就學滿意度為例。教育與心理研究，34(3)，1-28。 陳毓文(2004)。少年憂鬱情緒的危險與保護因子之相關性研究。中華心理衛生學刊，17(4)，67-95。 陳瑞麟（2017）。科學哲學：假設的推理。臺北市：五南。 黃韞臻、林淑惠(2012)。樂觀∕悲觀對大學生學習倦怠的差異分析。臺灣心理諮商季刊，4(4)，14-36。 詹志禹（1993）。因果關係與因果推理。國立政治大學學報，6，1-15。 詹志禹（2002）。科學發現與知識成長：我們能從科學哲學當中學到什麼？應用心理研究，15，105-127。 蔡文標、許天威、蕭金土（2003）。影響國小數學低成就學生數學成就的相關因素之研究。特殊教育學報，17，1-37。 賴俊生、謝亞恆（2017）。快樂，男女有別嗎？青少年自尊對憂鬱情緒的性別差異。高雄師大學報，43，31-56。 顏綵思、魏麗敏(2005)。臺灣中部地區國中小學生自我概念、父母管教方式對攻擊行爲影響之研究。臺中教育大學學報：教育類，19(2)，23-48。 關秉寅、李敦義（2008）。補習數學有用嗎？一個“反事實”的分析。臺灣社會學刊，41，97-148。 魏麗敏（1996）。國小學生學習動機、數學焦慮與數學成就之研究。國民教育研究集刊，4，133-155。 蘇曉憶、戴嘉南(2008)。青少年完美主義、自尊與其憂鬱傾向之相關研究。諮商輔導學報：高師輔導所刊，18，123-154。 Abramowitz, J. 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