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題名 以代理人模型預測登革熱疫情之擴散
Prediction of Epidemic Diffusion of Dengue Fever Using Agent-based Model
作者 陳怡菁
Chen, Yi-Ching
貢獻者 沈錳坤
Shan, Man-Kwan
陳怡菁
Chen, Yi-Ching
關鍵詞 代理人模型
疫情擴散
登革熱
Agent-based model
Epidemic diffusion
Dengue fever
日期 2018
上傳時間 1-十月-2018 12:21:18 (UTC+8)
摘要 隨著交通便利性的大幅提升，跨國流通促成高度全球化發展的同時，也加速傳染病疫情的擴散。流行疾病不僅是人類健康的重大威脅，也攸關國家安全，因其將產生難以估計的社會成本，造成大量資源耗費。防疫視同作戰，除了依賴個人進行居家、健康管理之外，政府相關單位也必須在第一時間掌控疫情擴散的情況，立即提出有效阻斷疫情擴散的施行原則，才能降低疫情所造成的傷亡。本研究以台南真實人口年齡分布比例作為人口模擬依據，結合代理人系統發展一套預測模型，並藉由2015年台南登革熱大流行確定病例以驗證模型之準確率。本研究旨在建立可以預測疾病擴散情況之基本模型，以期提升政府相關單位掌控傳染病疫情的能力。
The considerable increase in international transport convenience contributes to the process of globalization, and inevitably accelerates the spread of infectious diseases at the same time. The epidemic is not merely a threat to human health, but also a potential threat to national security for it pushing up enormous social costs and causing unnecessary waste of resources. Infection prevention and control of epidemic is crucial at both individual and institutional level. People should stay alert and be an active participant in their own care. The government should be able to implement effective strategies to c¬¬¬¬ontrol the spread of the epidemic and reduce the damage immediately. This thesis aims to apply the agent-based model and use the demographic data of Tainan City to develop a predictive model of epidemic spreading. The medical records of the outbreak of Dengue fever happened in Tainan in 2015 are utilized to measure the accuracy of this model. This thesis provides a contribution to the study of epidemic control and helps the government to enhance its capacity for monitoring the infectious disease.
參考文獻 [1]Achrekar, H., Gandhe, A., Lazarus, R., Yu, S., and Liu, B. Predicting Flu Trends using Twitter Data. The 30th IEEE Conference on Computer Communications Workshops (INFOCOM WKSHPS), 2011.
     [2]Bhatt, S., Gething, P. W., Brady, O. J., Messina, J. P., Farlow, A. W., Moyes, C. L., Drake, J. M.,Brownstein, J. S., Hoen, A. G., Sankoh, O., Myers, M. F., George, D. B., Jaenisch, T., Wint, G. R. W., Simmons, C. P., Scott, T. W., Farrar, J. J., and Hay, S. I. The Global Distribution and Burden of Dengue. Nature, Vol. 496, pp. 504–507, 2013.
     [3]Diethelm, K. A Fractional Calculus Based Model for the Simulation of an Outbreak of Dengue Fever. Nonlinear Dynamics, Vol. 71, No. 4, pp. 613–619, 2013.
     [4]Gubler, D. J. Dengue and Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever. Clinical Microbiology Reviews, Vol. 11, No. 3, pp. 480-496, 1998.
     [5]Kermack, W.O. and McKendrick, A. G. A Contribution to the Mathematical Theory of Epidemics. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, Vol. 115, No. 772, pp. 700-721, 1927.
     [6]Liu-Helmersson, J., Stenlund, H., Wilder-Smith, A., and Rocklov, J. Vectorial Capacity of Aedes aegypti: Effects of Temperature and Implications for Global Dengue Epidemic Potential. PLoS ONE, Vol. 9, No. 3, e89783, 2014.
     [7]Macal, C. M. and North, M. J. Tutorial on Agent-based Modelling and Simulation. Journal of Simulation, Vol. 4, No. 3, pp. 151-162, 2010.
     [8]Medeiros, L. C. de C., Castilho, C. A. R., Braga, C., de Souza, W. V., Regis, L., and Monteiro, A. M. V. Modeling the Dynamic Transmission of Dengue Fever: Investigating Disease Persistence. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol. 5, No. 1, e942, 2011.
     [9]Murray, N. E. A., Quam, M. B., and Wilder-Smith, A. Epidemiology of Dengue: Past, Present and Future Prospects. Clinical Epidemiology, No. 5, pp. 299–309, 2013.
     [10]Mutheneni, S.R., Mopuri, R., Naish, S., Gunti, D., and Upadhyayula, S. M. Spatial Distribution and Cluster Analysis of Dengue using Self Organizing Maps in Andhra Pradesh, India, 2011-2013. Parasite Epidemiology and Control, Vol. 3, No. 1, pp. 52-61, 2018.
     [11]Patz, J. A., Martens, W. J., Focks, D. A., and Jetten, T. H. Dengue Fever Epidemic Potential as Projected by General Circulation Models of Global Climate Change. Environmental Health Perspectives, Vol. 106, No. 3, pp. 147-153, 1998.
     [12]Racloz, V., Ramsey, R., Tong, S., and Hu, W. Surveillance of Dengue Fever Virus: A Review of Epidemiological Models and Early Warning Systems. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol. 6, No. 5, e1648, 2012.
     [13]Wu, P., Lay, J., Guo, H., Lin, C., Lung, S., and Su, H. Higher Temperature and Urbanization Affect the Spatial Patterns of Dengue Fever Transmission in Subtropical Taiwan. Science of The Total Environment, Vol. 407, No. 7, pp. 2224-2233, 2009.
     [14]Yu, H., Yang, S., Yen, H., and Christakos, G. A Spatio-temporal Climate-based Model of Early Dengue Fever Warning in Southern Taiwan. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, Vol. 25, No. 4, pp. 485–494, 2011.
     [15]Zafarani, R., Abbasi, M. A., and Liu, H. Social Media Mining: An Introduction. Cambridge University Press, 2014.
     [16]Lo, Y. 「2015年台灣登革熱疫情：疫情現況、臨床診治及防治政策」。（檢索日期：2018.07.15，https://www.slideshare.net/YICHUNLO/201520150916）
     [17]卞宗琪，「以小世界社會網路為基礎的病媒性疾病模型：登革熱傳播之模擬」，國立交通大學資訊科學與工程研究所碩士論文，新竹市，民國94年。
     [18]內政部，「統計區分類系統建置及應用」，https://www.moi.gov.tw/files/site_node_file/6263/統計區分類系統建置及應用.pdf
     [19]世界衛生組織，Dengue control: Epidemiology，http://www.who.int/denguecontrol/denguecontrol/epidemiology/en/
     [20]用數據看台灣（網站），「2015台南登革熱—熱區變遷地圖」，https://www.taiwanstat.com/statistics/dengue-animation/
     [21]林冠伶，「傳染病防治與基本權利保障之研究」，中國文化大學法律學研究所碩士論文，新北市，民國99年。
     [22]林聖哲，「台南市登革熱疫情」，民國104年，https://slidesplayer.com/side/11506682/
     [23]政府資料開放平臺，「購屋及遷徙—村里戶數、單一年齡人口」，https://data.gov.tw/ dataset/32973
     [24]疾病管制署資料開放平台，「登革熱1998年起每日確定病例統計」，https://data.cdc.gov.tw/dataset/dengue-daily-determined-cases-1998
     [25]疾病管制署資料開放平台，「登革熱病媒蚊調查資料」，https://data.cdc.gov.tw/dataset/dengue-mosquito-investigation
     [26]陳品玲，流行病學概論（二版），華杏出版股份有限公司，民國99年。
     [27]曾詩婷，「麻疹風暴擴大！林口長庚群聚感染殃及護理人員 正追蹤接觸者980人」。風傳媒，2018.04.22。（檢索日期 2018.07.10，http://www.storm.mg/article/427988）
     [28]衛生福利部疾病管制署，「流行病學」， https://www.cdc.gov.tw/professional/page.aspx?treeid=6FD88FC9BF76E125&nowtreeid=97F5324D05C78AA1
     [29]衛生福利部疾病管制署，「登革熱介紹」， https://www.cdc.gov.tw/diseaseinfo.aspx?treeid=8d54c504e820735b&nowtreeid=dec84a2f0c6fac5b&tid=77BFF3D4F9CB7982
     [30]衛生福利部疾病管制署，「登革熱教材」，https://www.cdc.gov.tw/professional/downloadfile.aspx?fid=C9485654D543DE9C
     [31]衛生福利部疾病管制署，「登革熱／屈公病防治工作指引」。2015年版，https://www.cdc.gov.tw/downloadfile_url.aspx?url=/Archives/de817043-61e5-467d-9965-a973ed7d3742.pdf&filename=登革熱屈公病防治工作指引
     [32]衛生福利部疾病管制署，「登革熱的死亡率？」，https://www.cdc.gov.tw/professional/info.aspx?treeid=abe19a12394afd29&nowtreeid=6840e0e3987f33cf&tid=1192540C2940C962
     [33]衛生福利部疾病管制署，「登革熱病媒蚊指數」，https://www.cdc.gov.tw/professional/info.aspx?treeid=beac9c103df952c4&nowtreeid=eb91b381446087c0&tid=2687AE23A4E19FAB
     [34]衛生福利部疾病管制署，「傳染窩」，https://www.cdc.gov.tw/professional/page.aspx?treeid=6FD88FC9BF76E125&nowtreeid=3B00A7FD7543115A
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
資訊科學系碩士在職專班
100971012
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0100971012
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 沈錳坤zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Shan, Man-Kwanen_US
dc.contributor.author (作者) 陳怡菁zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (作者) Chen, Yi-Chingen_US
dc.creator (作者) 陳怡菁zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Chen, Yi-Chingen_US
dc.date (日期) 2018en_US
dc.date.accessioned 1-十月-2018 12:21:18 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 1-十月-2018 12:21:18 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 1-十月-2018 12:21:18 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) G0100971012en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/120320-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 資訊科學系碩士在職專班zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 100971012zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 隨著交通便利性的大幅提升，跨國流通促成高度全球化發展的同時，也加速傳染病疫情的擴散。流行疾病不僅是人類健康的重大威脅，也攸關國家安全，因其將產生難以估計的社會成本，造成大量資源耗費。防疫視同作戰，除了依賴個人進行居家、健康管理之外，政府相關單位也必須在第一時間掌控疫情擴散的情況，立即提出有效阻斷疫情擴散的施行原則，才能降低疫情所造成的傷亡。本研究以台南真實人口年齡分布比例作為人口模擬依據，結合代理人系統發展一套預測模型，並藉由2015年台南登革熱大流行確定病例以驗證模型之準確率。本研究旨在建立可以預測疾病擴散情況之基本模型，以期提升政府相關單位掌控傳染病疫情的能力。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) The considerable increase in international transport convenience contributes to the process of globalization, and inevitably accelerates the spread of infectious diseases at the same time. The epidemic is not merely a threat to human health, but also a potential threat to national security for it pushing up enormous social costs and causing unnecessary waste of resources. Infection prevention and control of epidemic is crucial at both individual and institutional level. People should stay alert and be an active participant in their own care. The government should be able to implement effective strategies to c¬¬¬¬ontrol the spread of the epidemic and reduce the damage immediately. This thesis aims to apply the agent-based model and use the demographic data of Tainan City to develop a predictive model of epidemic spreading. The medical records of the outbreak of Dengue fever happened in Tainan in 2015 are utilized to measure the accuracy of this model. This thesis provides a contribution to the study of epidemic control and helps the government to enhance its capacity for monitoring the infectious disease.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1
     1.1 研究背景與動機 1
     1.2 研究目的 2
     1.3 論文架構 3
     第二章 相關研究 4
     2.1 流行病學 4
     2.2 登革熱簡介 4
     2.2.1 概述 4
     2.2.2 流行病史 5
     2.2.3 病毒特性 5
     2.2.4 傳染窩 6
     2.2.5 台灣登革熱流行情況 6
     2.3 疫情擴散 8
     第三章 研究方法 12
     3.1 資料來源 12
     3.1.1 台南人口年齡分布資料 12
     3.1.2 登革熱病媒蚊調查資料 13
     3.1.3 登革熱確定病例資料 14
     3.2 資料前處理 16
     3.3 研究方法 18
     3.3.1 問題定義 18
     3.3.2 模擬人口 18
     3.3.3 代理人模型 21
     第四章 實驗 28
     4.1 實驗說明 28
     4.2 實驗結果 29
     4.3 檢討及討論 34
     第五章 結論與未來研究方向 36
     5.1 結論 36
     5.2 未來研究方向 36
     參考文獻 37		zh_TW
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0100971012en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 代理人模型zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 疫情擴散zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 登革熱zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Agent-based modelen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Epidemic diffusionen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Dengue feveren_US
dc.title (題名) 以代理人模型預測登革熱疫情之擴散zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Prediction of Epidemic Diffusion of Dengue Fever Using Agent-based Modelen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [1]Achrekar, H., Gandhe, A., Lazarus, R., Yu, S., and Liu, B. Predicting Flu Trends using Twitter Data. The 30th IEEE Conference on Computer Communications Workshops (INFOCOM WKSHPS), 2011.
     [2]Bhatt, S., Gething, P. W., Brady, O. J., Messina, J. P., Farlow, A. W., Moyes, C. L., Drake, J. M.,Brownstein, J. S., Hoen, A. G., Sankoh, O., Myers, M. F., George, D. B., Jaenisch, T., Wint, G. R. W., Simmons, C. P., Scott, T. W., Farrar, J. J., and Hay, S. I. The Global Distribution and Burden of Dengue. Nature, Vol. 496, pp. 504–507, 2013.
     [3]Diethelm, K. A Fractional Calculus Based Model for the Simulation of an Outbreak of Dengue Fever. Nonlinear Dynamics, Vol. 71, No. 4, pp. 613–619, 2013.
     [4]Gubler, D. J. Dengue and Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever. Clinical Microbiology Reviews, Vol. 11, No. 3, pp. 480-496, 1998.
     [5]Kermack, W.O. and McKendrick, A. G. A Contribution to the Mathematical Theory of Epidemics. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, Vol. 115, No. 772, pp. 700-721, 1927.
     [6]Liu-Helmersson, J., Stenlund, H., Wilder-Smith, A., and Rocklov, J. Vectorial Capacity of Aedes aegypti: Effects of Temperature and Implications for Global Dengue Epidemic Potential. PLoS ONE, Vol. 9, No. 3, e89783, 2014.
     [7]Macal, C. M. and North, M. J. Tutorial on Agent-based Modelling and Simulation. Journal of Simulation, Vol. 4, No. 3, pp. 151-162, 2010.
     [8]Medeiros, L. C. de C., Castilho, C. A. R., Braga, C., de Souza, W. V., Regis, L., and Monteiro, A. M. V. Modeling the Dynamic Transmission of Dengue Fever: Investigating Disease Persistence. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol. 5, No. 1, e942, 2011.
     [9]Murray, N. E. A., Quam, M. B., and Wilder-Smith, A. Epidemiology of Dengue: Past, Present and Future Prospects. Clinical Epidemiology, No. 5, pp. 299–309, 2013.
     [10]Mutheneni, S.R., Mopuri, R., Naish, S., Gunti, D., and Upadhyayula, S. M. Spatial Distribution and Cluster Analysis of Dengue using Self Organizing Maps in Andhra Pradesh, India, 2011-2013. Parasite Epidemiology and Control, Vol. 3, No. 1, pp. 52-61, 2018.
     [11]Patz, J. A., Martens, W. J., Focks, D. A., and Jetten, T. H. Dengue Fever Epidemic Potential as Projected by General Circulation Models of Global Climate Change. Environmental Health Perspectives, Vol. 106, No. 3, pp. 147-153, 1998.
     [12]Racloz, V., Ramsey, R., Tong, S., and Hu, W. Surveillance of Dengue Fever Virus: A Review of Epidemiological Models and Early Warning Systems. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol. 6, No. 5, e1648, 2012.
     [13]Wu, P., Lay, J., Guo, H., Lin, C., Lung, S., and Su, H. Higher Temperature and Urbanization Affect the Spatial Patterns of Dengue Fever Transmission in Subtropical Taiwan. Science of The Total Environment, Vol. 407, No. 7, pp. 2224-2233, 2009.
     [14]Yu, H., Yang, S., Yen, H., and Christakos, G. A Spatio-temporal Climate-based Model of Early Dengue Fever Warning in Southern Taiwan. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, Vol. 25, No. 4, pp. 485–494, 2011.
     [15]Zafarani, R., Abbasi, M. A., and Liu, H. Social Media Mining: An Introduction. Cambridge University Press, 2014.
     [16]Lo, Y. 「2015年台灣登革熱疫情：疫情現況、臨床診治及防治政策」。（檢索日期：2018.07.15，https://www.slideshare.net/YICHUNLO/201520150916）
     [17]卞宗琪，「以小世界社會網路為基礎的病媒性疾病模型：登革熱傳播之模擬」，國立交通大學資訊科學與工程研究所碩士論文，新竹市，民國94年。
     [18]內政部，「統計區分類系統建置及應用」，https://www.moi.gov.tw/files/site_node_file/6263/統計區分類系統建置及應用.pdf
     [19]世界衛生組織，Dengue control: Epidemiology，http://www.who.int/denguecontrol/denguecontrol/epidemiology/en/
     [20]用數據看台灣（網站），「2015台南登革熱—熱區變遷地圖」，https://www.taiwanstat.com/statistics/dengue-animation/
     [21]林冠伶，「傳染病防治與基本權利保障之研究」，中國文化大學法律學研究所碩士論文，新北市，民國99年。
     [22]林聖哲，「台南市登革熱疫情」，民國104年，https://slidesplayer.com/side/11506682/
     [23]政府資料開放平臺，「購屋及遷徙—村里戶數、單一年齡人口」，https://data.gov.tw/ dataset/32973
     [24]疾病管制署資料開放平台，「登革熱1998年起每日確定病例統計」，https://data.cdc.gov.tw/dataset/dengue-daily-determined-cases-1998
     [25]疾病管制署資料開放平台，「登革熱病媒蚊調查資料」，https://data.cdc.gov.tw/dataset/dengue-mosquito-investigation
     [26]陳品玲，流行病學概論（二版），華杏出版股份有限公司，民國99年。
     [27]曾詩婷，「麻疹風暴擴大！林口長庚群聚感染殃及護理人員 正追蹤接觸者980人」。風傳媒，2018.04.22。（檢索日期 2018.07.10，http://www.storm.mg/article/427988）
     [28]衛生福利部疾病管制署，「流行病學」， https://www.cdc.gov.tw/professional/page.aspx?treeid=6FD88FC9BF76E125&nowtreeid=97F5324D05C78AA1
     [29]衛生福利部疾病管制署，「登革熱介紹」， https://www.cdc.gov.tw/diseaseinfo.aspx?treeid=8d54c504e820735b&nowtreeid=dec84a2f0c6fac5b&tid=77BFF3D4F9CB7982
     [30]衛生福利部疾病管制署，「登革熱教材」，https://www.cdc.gov.tw/professional/downloadfile.aspx?fid=C9485654D543DE9C
     [31]衛生福利部疾病管制署，「登革熱／屈公病防治工作指引」。2015年版，https://www.cdc.gov.tw/downloadfile_url.aspx?url=/Archives/de817043-61e5-467d-9965-a973ed7d3742.pdf&filename=登革熱屈公病防治工作指引
     [32]衛生福利部疾病管制署，「登革熱的死亡率？」，https://www.cdc.gov.tw/professional/info.aspx?treeid=abe19a12394afd29&nowtreeid=6840e0e3987f33cf&tid=1192540C2940C962
     [33]衛生福利部疾病管制署，「登革熱病媒蚊指數」，https://www.cdc.gov.tw/professional/info.aspx?treeid=beac9c103df952c4&nowtreeid=eb91b381446087c0&tid=2687AE23A4E19FAB
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dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.6814/THE.NCCU.EMCS.011.2018.B02en_US