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題名 影響墨西哥S&P/BMV IPC的外部因素
External Factors Affecting the S&P/BMV IPC作者 高岱辰
Antuna, Jorge Federico Gonzalez貢獻者 蔡政憲
Tsai, Jason
高岱辰
Jorge Federico Gonzalez Antuna關鍵詞 墨西哥股票交易
墨西哥標準普爾指數
國際原油價格
聯邦儲備系統
唐納川普
Mexican Stock Exchange
S&P/BMV IPC
international crude oil price
Federal Reserve
Donald Trump日期 2020 上傳時間 3-八月-2020 17:46:53 (UTC+8) 摘要 This paper’s objective is to investigate the influence of external factors to the Mexican economy on the Mexico’s “Índice de Precios y Cotizaciones” (S&P/BMV IPC), the principal index of the Mexican Stock Exchange. The sampling period of this study is from January 2015 to December 2019. We use multiple linear regression and cointegration approaches to test the existence of relationship between S&P/BMV IPC and the exogenous variables.Findings from the multiple linear regression model suggest that exchange rate has a negative influence in S&P/BMV IPC value, while cointegration approach suggests that only the index value of the previous period has influence in the index value of the subsequent period. 參考文獻 BMV Group. (2015). About Us. Mexico City, Mexico.Caplinger, D. (2020, January 18). What Is a Stock Market Index? The Motley Fool. Retrieved from https://www.fool.com/knowledge-center/what-is-a-stock-index.aspxChapman, B. 2017. Donald Trump wipes $5.7bn off the value of Amazon with single tweet. Independent. Aug 16. Retrieved from https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/donald-trump-amazon-value-5-billion-drop-off-shares-tweet-social-media-jeff-bezos-a7896266.htmlEnerdata. (2019). Global Energy Statistical Yearbook 2019. Retrieved from https://yearbook.enerdata.net/total-energy/world-consumption-statistics.htmlFandos, N. 2017. Trump`s View of Syria: How it Evolved, in 19 Tweets. NYTimes. April 7. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/07/us/politics/donald-trump-syria-twitter.htmlFederal Reserve System. 2020, January 30. About the Fed. Washington DC. Retrieved from https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed.htmFXCM. 2017. What Is President Trump’s Impact On The Mexican Peso? February 1. Retrieved from https://www.fxcm.com/uk/insights/president-trumps-impact-mexican-peso/Goodman, P. S., Bradsher, K., & Gough, N. 2017. The Fed Acts. Workers in Mexico and Merchants in Malaysia Suffer. NY Times. March 6. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/16/business/federal-reserve-interest-rates-china-mexico.htmlGunzberg, J., & Edwards, T. (2018, June 20). Why is the S&P 500® Relevant Globally? Retrieved from https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/articles/why-is-the-sp-500-relevant-globallyGuo, S., Jiao, Y., & Xu, Z. 2019. Trump`s Effect on the Chinese Stock Market. Retrieved from https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3541523Gutierrez, R. d., & Ortiz, E. (2011). El efecto de la volatilidad del peso mexicano en los rendimientos y riesgo de la Bolsa Mexicana de Valores. Contaduría y Administración 58, 89-119. Retrieved from http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0186-10422013000300005INEGI. (2020, March). Balanza Comercial de México. Retrieved from https://www.inegi.org.mx/temas/balanza/Ingram, M. 2017. Here`s Why Facebook Is Partly to Blame for the Rise of Donald Trump. Fortune. May 24. Retrieved from https://fortune.com/2016/11/10/facebook-blame-trump/Kenton, W. (2019, May 18). S&P 500 Index – Standard & Poor`s 500 Index. Investopedia. Retrieved from https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sp500.aspLópez-Juárez, G. I., Ladrón de Guevara-Cortés, R., & Madrid-Paredones, R. M. (2019). Factores que Explican el Comportamiento del Mercado Accionario Mexicano. Clío América, 268-278.O`Sullivan, A. 2003. Economics: Principles in action. New Jersey: Pearson Prentice Hall.Sánchez, M. 2018. El S&P/BMV IPC cumple 40 años. Retrieved from https://us.spindices.com/Sandoval, A. 2020. La caída de los precios del petróleo amenaza las finanzas públicas de México. Alto Nivel. March 03 Retrieved from https://www.altonivel.com.mx/finanzas/la-caida-de-los-precios-del-petroleo-amenaza-las-finanzas-publicas-de-mexico/Sardy, M., & Cova, S. C. (2019, June). How Presidential Tweets Affect Financial Markets. US. Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/333852219Singhal, S., Choudhary, S., & Biswal, P. C. (2019). Return and volatility linkages among International crude oil price, gold price, exchage rate and stock markets: Evidence from Mexico. Resources Policy, 255-261. Retrieved from www.elsevier.com/locate/resourpolTime, 2015. Here`s Donald Trump`s Presidential Announcement Speech. June 16 Retrieved from https://time.com/3923128/donald-trump-announcement-speech/Trump, D. J. (2017, August 17). Amazon is doing great damage to tax paying retailers. Towns, cities and states throughout the U.S. are being hurt - many jobs being lost! Retrieved from https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/897763049226084352U.S. Department of Commerce. International trade in goods and services, 2018 Retrieved from https://www.commerce.gov/tags/international-trade-goods-and-servicesU.S. Energy Information Administration. Production of Crude Oil including Lease Condensate, 2019. Retrieved from https://www.eia.gov/ 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
國際經營管理英語碩士學位學程(IMBA)
107933037資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107933037 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 蔡政憲 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Tsai, Jason en_US dc.contributor.author (作者) 高岱辰 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (作者) Jorge Federico Gonzalez Antuna en_US dc.creator (作者) 高岱辰 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Antuna, Jorge Federico Gonzalez en_US dc.date (日期) 2020 en_US dc.date.accessioned 3-八月-2020 17:46:53 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 3-八月-2020 17:46:53 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 3-八月-2020 17:46:53 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) G0107933037 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/131047 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國際經營管理英語碩士學位學程(IMBA) zh_TW dc.description (描述) 107933037 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) This paper’s objective is to investigate the influence of external factors to the Mexican economy on the Mexico’s “Índice de Precios y Cotizaciones” (S&P/BMV IPC), the principal index of the Mexican Stock Exchange. The sampling period of this study is from January 2015 to December 2019. We use multiple linear regression and cointegration approaches to test the existence of relationship between S&P/BMV IPC and the exogenous variables.Findings from the multiple linear regression model suggest that exchange rate has a negative influence in S&P/BMV IPC value, while cointegration approach suggests that only the index value of the previous period has influence in the index value of the subsequent period. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 1. Introduction 11.1. Background 11.2. Research Questions 51.3. Research Objective 51.4. Limitation of Research 52. Literature Review 62.1. Mexican Stock Exchange 62.1.1. History 62.2. Índice de Precios y Cotizaciones S&P/BMV IPC 72.3. Factors that Influence S&P/BMV IPC 82.3.1. International Crude Oil Price 82.3.2. S&P 500 92.3.3. Exchange Rate USD/MXN 92.3.4. Donald Trump Tweets 102.4. Previous Research on Factors affecting the S&P/IPC BMV 113. Data and Methodology 123.1. Research Method 123.2. Object of Research 123.3. Types and Sources of Data 123.4. Variable Definition 123.4.1. S&P/BMV IPC 123.4.2. International Crude Oil Price 133.4.3. S&P 500 Index 133.4.4. Exchange Rate USD/MXN 133.4.5. Donald Trump Tweets 133.5. Methodologies 143.5.1. Multiple Linear Regression Model 143.5.2. Linear Regression Assumptions 143.5.3. Hypothesis Testing MLR 153.5.4. ARDL Bound Co Integration Test 153.5.5. Diagnostic Tests ARDL 173.5.6. Hypothesis Testing ARDL 184. Results and Discussions 194.1. Multiple Linear Regression 194.1.1. Descriptive statistics 194.1.2. Correlation Matrix 194.1.3. Multiple Linear Regression Equation 204.1.4. Hypotheses Test Result MLR 204.1.5. Overall Significance Test MLR 214.1.6. Assumptions Test MLR 234.2. ARDL Bound Co Integration Test 244.2.1. Descriptive statistics 244.2.2. Correlation Matrix ARDL 264.2.3. Unit Root Test ARDL 264.2.4. ARDL Co Bound Integration Test 274.2.5. Long Run Equation ARDL 284.2.6. Error Correction Model ARDL 284.2.7. Hypotheses Test Result ARDL 294.2.8. Overall Significance Test ARDL 304.2.9. ECM Diagnostics tests 315. Conclusions 336. References 347. Appendix A 37 zh_TW dc.format.extent 1832035 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107933037 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 墨西哥股票交易 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 墨西哥標準普爾指數 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 國際原油價格 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 聯邦儲備系統 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 唐納川普 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Mexican Stock Exchange en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) S&P/BMV IPC en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) international crude oil price en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Federal Reserve en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Donald Trump en_US dc.title (題名) 影響墨西哥S&P/BMV IPC的外部因素 zh_TW dc.title (題名) External Factors Affecting the S&P/BMV IPC en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) BMV Group. (2015). About Us. Mexico City, Mexico.Caplinger, D. (2020, January 18). What Is a Stock Market Index? The Motley Fool. Retrieved from https://www.fool.com/knowledge-center/what-is-a-stock-index.aspxChapman, B. 2017. Donald Trump wipes $5.7bn off the value of Amazon with single tweet. Independent. Aug 16. Retrieved from https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/donald-trump-amazon-value-5-billion-drop-off-shares-tweet-social-media-jeff-bezos-a7896266.htmlEnerdata. (2019). Global Energy Statistical Yearbook 2019. Retrieved from https://yearbook.enerdata.net/total-energy/world-consumption-statistics.htmlFandos, N. 2017. Trump`s View of Syria: How it Evolved, in 19 Tweets. NYTimes. April 7. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/07/us/politics/donald-trump-syria-twitter.htmlFederal Reserve System. 2020, January 30. About the Fed. Washington DC. Retrieved from https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed.htmFXCM. 2017. What Is President Trump’s Impact On The Mexican Peso? February 1. Retrieved from https://www.fxcm.com/uk/insights/president-trumps-impact-mexican-peso/Goodman, P. S., Bradsher, K., & Gough, N. 2017. The Fed Acts. Workers in Mexico and Merchants in Malaysia Suffer. NY Times. March 6. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/16/business/federal-reserve-interest-rates-china-mexico.htmlGunzberg, J., & Edwards, T. (2018, June 20). Why is the S&P 500® Relevant Globally? Retrieved from https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/articles/why-is-the-sp-500-relevant-globallyGuo, S., Jiao, Y., & Xu, Z. 2019. Trump`s Effect on the Chinese Stock Market. Retrieved from https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3541523Gutierrez, R. d., & Ortiz, E. (2011). El efecto de la volatilidad del peso mexicano en los rendimientos y riesgo de la Bolsa Mexicana de Valores. Contaduría y Administración 58, 89-119. Retrieved from http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0186-10422013000300005INEGI. (2020, March). Balanza Comercial de México. Retrieved from https://www.inegi.org.mx/temas/balanza/Ingram, M. 2017. Here`s Why Facebook Is Partly to Blame for the Rise of Donald Trump. Fortune. May 24. Retrieved from https://fortune.com/2016/11/10/facebook-blame-trump/Kenton, W. (2019, May 18). S&P 500 Index – Standard & Poor`s 500 Index. Investopedia. Retrieved from https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sp500.aspLópez-Juárez, G. I., Ladrón de Guevara-Cortés, R., & Madrid-Paredones, R. M. (2019). Factores que Explican el Comportamiento del Mercado Accionario Mexicano. Clío América, 268-278.O`Sullivan, A. 2003. Economics: Principles in action. New Jersey: Pearson Prentice Hall.Sánchez, M. 2018. El S&P/BMV IPC cumple 40 años. Retrieved from https://us.spindices.com/Sandoval, A. 2020. La caída de los precios del petróleo amenaza las finanzas públicas de México. Alto Nivel. March 03 Retrieved from https://www.altonivel.com.mx/finanzas/la-caida-de-los-precios-del-petroleo-amenaza-las-finanzas-publicas-de-mexico/Sardy, M., & Cova, S. C. (2019, June). How Presidential Tweets Affect Financial Markets. US. Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/333852219Singhal, S., Choudhary, S., & Biswal, P. C. (2019). Return and volatility linkages among International crude oil price, gold price, exchage rate and stock markets: Evidence from Mexico. Resources Policy, 255-261. Retrieved from www.elsevier.com/locate/resourpolTime, 2015. Here`s Donald Trump`s Presidential Announcement Speech. June 16 Retrieved from https://time.com/3923128/donald-trump-announcement-speech/Trump, D. J. (2017, August 17). Amazon is doing great damage to tax paying retailers. Towns, cities and states throughout the U.S. are being hurt - many jobs being lost! Retrieved from https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/897763049226084352U.S. Department of Commerce. International trade in goods and services, 2018 Retrieved from https://www.commerce.gov/tags/international-trade-goods-and-servicesU.S. Energy Information Administration. Production of Crude Oil including Lease Condensate, 2019. Retrieved from https://www.eia.gov/ zh_TW dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.6814/NCCU202000683 en_US
