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題名 租稅負擔、空氣污染與人口遷移-以臺灣為例
Tax Burden, Air Pollution and Migration--Evidence from Taiwan作者 胡嘉玲
Hu, Chia-Ling貢獻者 黃智聰
Huang, Jr-Tsung
胡嘉玲
Hu, Chia-Ling關鍵詞 人口遷移
租稅負擔
空氣污染
空間杜賓模型
Migration
Tax Burden
Air Pollution
Spatial Durbin Model日期 2021 上傳時間 4-Aug-2021 16:03:35 (UTC+8) 摘要 由於人力資源是帶動經濟成長的關鍵因素，尤其臺灣正面臨少子化的問題，各縣市政府更需要思考如何制定政策方針以吸引人口遷入，同時減少人口的遷出。本研究之目的即在於探討租稅負擔、空氣污染等因素對人口遷移之影響，以臺灣二十個縣市（金門縣與連江縣除外）2014年至2019年的人口遷移資料為研究對象，被解釋變數係參照Huang and Chang（2018），以總人口淨遷入率衡量人口遷移之情況，並進一步將其區分為男性人口淨遷入率與女性人口淨遷入率進行討論。 針對總人口淨遷入率及男性人口淨遷入率，本研究使用隨機效果空間杜賓模型估計各縣市的實質人均稅賦與PM2.5濃度等因素對人口淨遷入率之影響；在女性人口淨遷入率的部分則是使用隨機效果模型進行估計。整體而言，人均稅賦、PM2.5濃度與犯罪率對人口淨遷入率有顯著的負向影響；而人均可支配所得、工業人口比例、就業成長率、人均社會福利支出與生師比對人口淨遷入率有顯著的正向影響。為增加人口淨遷入率，社會住宅與文化休閒設施的建設是各縣市政府可以思考的面向；而目前環保署所推動的各項空氣污染防制措施對降低PM2.5濃度已小有成效，各縣市政府可針對現有的政策進行補足，使空氣污染防制更加完善，以達成提高人口淨遷入率之目的。
Since human resources are the key factor in economic growth, especially for Taiwan with the problem of declining fertility rate, the local governments need to put more efforts on formulating guidelines and policies to attract people to move in and simultaneously reduce the number of people moving out. Using panel data including 20 counties and cities in Taiwan (except for Kinmen County and Lienchiang County) from 2014 to 2019, this paper aims to investigate the impact of tax burden, air pollution and other factors on population migration. Referring to Huang and Chang (2018), this paper uses the net migration rate as the explained variable to measure population migration, and further divide it into the male net migration rate and the female net migration rate for the analysis.Regarding the net migration rate and the male net migration rate, this study uses the random-effect spatial Durbin models to estimate the impact of factors including real tax burden per capita and concentration of PM2.5 in each county or city on the net migration rate; the female net migration rate is estimated using a random-effect model. The primary findings of this study are that, on the whole, real tax burden per capita, concentration of PM2.5, and the rate of crime have a significant negative impact on the net migration rate while real disposable income per capita, ratio of employees in the secondary sector, employment growth rate, real social welfare per capita and student-teacher ratio have a significant positive impact on the net migration rate.參考文獻 一、中文文獻林淑珍（2015）。「幸福宜居城市-影響人口遷移因素之實證研究」。臺中：臺中市政府104 年度自行研究發展報告。桃園市政府主計處（2019）。《各縣市人口遷往桃園市之因素初探》。桃園：桃園市政府。財團法人中技社（2019）。《台灣地方經濟發展及人口回流政策之挑戰與因應》。臺北：財團法人中技社。張雅青（2011）。《地方財政與人口遷移之研究》。高雄：國立高雄應用科技大學財經與商務決策研究所碩士論文。許廷芝、臧艷玲（2013）。「人口遷移在社會經濟發展中的作用」。《現代農業》。彭建文、吳文傑、龔書玉（2009）。「縣市內部人口遷移影響因素分析」。《人口學刊》，39，頁85-118。澎湖縣政府主計處（2015）。《103年度澎湖縣人口結構概況分析》。澎湖：澎湖縣政府。蔡素娟（2018）。《租稅負擔與人口流動—以台灣的縣市為例》。台北：國立政治大學行政管理碩士學程第十八屆碩士論文。鍾俊文（2007）。「人口轉變對總體經濟與金融市場的影響」。《中央銀行季刊》，29-1，頁61-66。邊瑞芬（1991）。「台灣地區縣市社經發展與人口遷移的關係」。《人口學刊》，14，頁83-108。 二、英文文獻Andrienko, Y. and S. Guriev (2004). “Determinants of Interregional Mobility in Russia: Evidence from Panel Data.” Economics of Transition, 12(1), 1-27.Ashby, Nathan J. (2007). “Economic Freedom and Migration Flows between U.S. States.” Southern Economic Journal, 73(3), 677-697.Berger, M. C. and G. C. Blomquist (1992). “Mobility and Destination in Migration Decisions: The Role of Earnings, Quality of Life, and Housing Prices.” Journal of Housing Economics, 2, 37-59.Cebula, Richard J. (1990). “A Brief Empirical Note on the Tiebout Hypothesis and State Income Tax Policies.” Public Choice, 67(1), 87-90.Cebula, Richard J. (2002b). “Net Interstate Population Growth Rates and The Tiebout-Tullock Hypothesis: New Empirical Evidence, 1990-2000.” Atlantic Economic Journal, 30 (4), 414-421.Cebula, Richard J., and Gigi M. Alexander (2006). “Determinants of Net Interstate Migration, 2000-2004.” Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, 36(2), 116-123.Chen, S., P. Oliva, and P. Zhang (2017). “The Effect of Pollution on Migration: Evidence from China.” NBER Working Paper No. 24036.Elhorst, J. P. (2014). “Matlab Software for Spatial Panels.” International Regional Science Review, 37(3), 389-405.Fidrmuc, J. (2004). “Migration and Regional Adjustment to Asymmetric shocks in Transition Economies.” Journal of Comparative Economics, 32, 230-247.Germani, A.R. and G. Talamo (2018). “Air Pollution and Migration in Italy: An Empirical Investigation at Provincial Level.” Energia, Ambiente e Ennovazione, 1, 26-31.Hausman, J. A. (1978). “Specification Tests in Econometrics.” Econometrica, 46(6), 1251-1271.Hsing, Yu (1995a). “A Note on Interstate Migration and Tax Burdens: New Evidence.” Journal of Applied Business Research, 12(1), 12-14.Huang, J.T. and M.L. Chang (2018). “Social Welfare, Phantom Voter, and Internal Migration in Taiwan-Evidence from Panel Spatial Analysis.” Singapore Economic Review, Forthcoming.Lee, E. S. (1966). “A Theory of Migration.” Demography, 3(1), 47-57.LeSage, J. P. and R.K. Pace (2009). Introduction to Spatial Econometrics. Boca Raton, US: CRC Press Taylor and Francis Group.Liebig, T. and A. Sousa-Poza (2006). “The Influence of Taxes on Migration: Evidence from Switzerland.” Cambridge Journal of Economics, 30(2), 235-252.Liu, Z. and L. Yu (2020). “Stay or Leave? The Role of Air Pollution in Urban Migration Choices.” Ecological Economics, 177(C). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106780Mead, A. C. (1982). “A Simultaneous Equations Model of Migration and Economic Change in Nonmetropolitan Areas.” Journal of regional Science, 22(4), 513-527.Mikula, S. and M. Pytliková (2020). “Air Pollution & Migration: Exploiting a Natural Experiment from the Czech Republic.” EconPol Working Paper, 43.Pope, C., T. Burnett, J. Thun, E. Calle, D. Krewski, K. Ito, and D. Thurston (2002). “Lung Cancer, Cardiopulmonary Mortality, and Long-term Exposure to fine Particulate Air Pollution.” American Medical Association, 287(9), 1132-1141.Ravenstein, E. G. (1885). “The Laws of Migration.” Journal of the Statistical Society of London, 48(2), 167–235.Ravenstein, E. G. (1889). “The Laws of Migration.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 52(2), 241-305.Tiebout, C. M. (1956). “A Pure Theory of Local Expenditures.” Journal of Political Economy, 64(5), 416-424.Windzio, M. (2018). “The Network of Global Migration 1990–2013 Using ERGMs to Test Theories of Migration between Countries.” Social Networks, 53, 20-29.Xu, X. and K. Sylwester (2016). “Environmental Quality and International Migration.” KYKLOS, 69(1), 157–180.Zhang, M., N.T. Mueller, H. Wang, X. Hong, L.J. Appel, and X. Wang (2018). “Maternal Exposure to Ambient Particulate Matter ≤2.5 µm During Pregnancy and the Risk for High Blood Pressure in Childhood.” Hypertension, 72(1), 194-201. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財政學系
108255010資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108255010 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 黃智聰 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Huang, Jr-Tsung en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 胡嘉玲 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Hu, Chia-Ling en_US dc.creator (作者) 胡嘉玲 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Hu, Chia-Ling en_US dc.date (日期) 2021 en_US dc.date.accessioned 4-Aug-2021 16:03:35 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 4-Aug-2021 16:03:35 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 4-Aug-2021 16:03:35 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0108255010 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/136581 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 財政學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 108255010 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 由於人力資源是帶動經濟成長的關鍵因素，尤其臺灣正面臨少子化的問題，各縣市政府更需要思考如何制定政策方針以吸引人口遷入，同時減少人口的遷出。本研究之目的即在於探討租稅負擔、空氣污染等因素對人口遷移之影響，以臺灣二十個縣市（金門縣與連江縣除外）2014年至2019年的人口遷移資料為研究對象，被解釋變數係參照Huang and Chang（2018），以總人口淨遷入率衡量人口遷移之情況，並進一步將其區分為男性人口淨遷入率與女性人口淨遷入率進行討論。 針對總人口淨遷入率及男性人口淨遷入率，本研究使用隨機效果空間杜賓模型估計各縣市的實質人均稅賦與PM2.5濃度等因素對人口淨遷入率之影響；在女性人口淨遷入率的部分則是使用隨機效果模型進行估計。整體而言，人均稅賦、PM2.5濃度與犯罪率對人口淨遷入率有顯著的負向影響；而人均可支配所得、工業人口比例、就業成長率、人均社會福利支出與生師比對人口淨遷入率有顯著的正向影響。為增加人口淨遷入率，社會住宅與文化休閒設施的建設是各縣市政府可以思考的面向；而目前環保署所推動的各項空氣污染防制措施對降低PM2.5濃度已小有成效，各縣市政府可針對現有的政策進行補足，使空氣污染防制更加完善，以達成提高人口淨遷入率之目的。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) Since human resources are the key factor in economic growth, especially for Taiwan with the problem of declining fertility rate, the local governments need to put more efforts on formulating guidelines and policies to attract people to move in and simultaneously reduce the number of people moving out. Using panel data including 20 counties and cities in Taiwan (except for Kinmen County and Lienchiang County) from 2014 to 2019, this paper aims to investigate the impact of tax burden, air pollution and other factors on population migration. Referring to Huang and Chang (2018), this paper uses the net migration rate as the explained variable to measure population migration, and further divide it into the male net migration rate and the female net migration rate for the analysis.Regarding the net migration rate and the male net migration rate, this study uses the random-effect spatial Durbin models to estimate the impact of factors including real tax burden per capita and concentration of PM2.5 in each county or city on the net migration rate; the female net migration rate is estimated using a random-effect model. The primary findings of this study are that, on the whole, real tax burden per capita, concentration of PM2.5, and the rate of crime have a significant negative impact on the net migration rate while real disposable income per capita, ratio of employees in the secondary sector, employment growth rate, real social welfare per capita and student-teacher ratio have a significant positive impact on the net migration rate. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 研究目的與架構 1第一節 研究背景與目的 1第二節 研究架構 3第二章 文獻回顧 6第一節 人口遷移理論相關文獻 6第二節 租稅負擔影響人口遷移相關文獻 8第三節 空氣污染影響人口遷移相關文獻 12第四節 其他因素影響人口遷移相關文獻 16第三章 現況分析 21第一節 臺灣各縣市人口淨遷入率 21第二節 臺灣各縣市實質人均稅賦 25第三節 臺灣各縣市PM2.5濃度 27第四節 初步探討租稅負擔、空氣污染與人口淨遷入率之關係 30第四章 研究方法與模型設定 32第一節 空間計量模型 32第二節 模型設定 36第三節 變數說明與資料來源 40第五章 實證結果 47第一節 單根檢定與共線性檢定 47第二節 實證模型估計結果 50第三節 本章小結與研究限制 60第六章 結論與建議 62第一節 結論 62第二節 政策建議 64參考文獻 66一、中文文獻 66二、英文文獻 67 zh_TW dc.format.extent 3130062 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108255010 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 人口遷移 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 租稅負擔 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 空氣污染 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 空間杜賓模型 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Migration en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Tax Burden en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Air Pollution en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Spatial Durbin Model en_US dc.title (題名) 租稅負擔、空氣污染與人口遷移-以臺灣為例 zh_TW dc.title (題名) Tax Burden, Air Pollution and Migration--Evidence from Taiwan en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、中文文獻林淑珍（2015）。「幸福宜居城市-影響人口遷移因素之實證研究」。臺中：臺中市政府104 年度自行研究發展報告。桃園市政府主計處（2019）。《各縣市人口遷往桃園市之因素初探》。桃園：桃園市政府。財團法人中技社（2019）。《台灣地方經濟發展及人口回流政策之挑戰與因應》。臺北：財團法人中技社。張雅青（2011）。《地方財政與人口遷移之研究》。高雄：國立高雄應用科技大學財經與商務決策研究所碩士論文。許廷芝、臧艷玲（2013）。「人口遷移在社會經濟發展中的作用」。《現代農業》。彭建文、吳文傑、龔書玉（2009）。「縣市內部人口遷移影響因素分析」。《人口學刊》，39，頁85-118。澎湖縣政府主計處（2015）。《103年度澎湖縣人口結構概況分析》。澎湖：澎湖縣政府。蔡素娟（2018）。《租稅負擔與人口流動—以台灣的縣市為例》。台北：國立政治大學行政管理碩士學程第十八屆碩士論文。鍾俊文（2007）。「人口轉變對總體經濟與金融市場的影響」。《中央銀行季刊》，29-1，頁61-66。邊瑞芬（1991）。「台灣地區縣市社經發展與人口遷移的關係」。《人口學刊》，14，頁83-108。 二、英文文獻Andrienko, Y. and S. Guriev (2004). “Determinants of Interregional Mobility in Russia: Evidence from Panel Data.” Economics of Transition, 12(1), 1-27.Ashby, Nathan J. (2007). “Economic Freedom and Migration Flows between U.S. States.” Southern Economic Journal, 73(3), 677-697.Berger, M. C. and G. C. Blomquist (1992). “Mobility and Destination in Migration Decisions: The Role of Earnings, Quality of Life, and Housing Prices.” Journal of Housing Economics, 2, 37-59.Cebula, Richard J. (1990). “A Brief Empirical Note on the Tiebout Hypothesis and State Income Tax Policies.” Public Choice, 67(1), 87-90.Cebula, Richard J. (2002b). “Net Interstate Population Growth Rates and The Tiebout-Tullock Hypothesis: New Empirical Evidence, 1990-2000.” Atlantic Economic Journal, 30 (4), 414-421.Cebula, Richard J., and Gigi M. Alexander (2006). “Determinants of Net Interstate Migration, 2000-2004.” Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, 36(2), 116-123.Chen, S., P. Oliva, and P. Zhang (2017). “The Effect of Pollution on Migration: Evidence from China.” NBER Working Paper No. 24036.Elhorst, J. P. (2014). “Matlab Software for Spatial Panels.” International Regional Science Review, 37(3), 389-405.Fidrmuc, J. (2004). “Migration and Regional Adjustment to Asymmetric shocks in Transition Economies.” Journal of Comparative Economics, 32, 230-247.Germani, A.R. and G. Talamo (2018). “Air Pollution and Migration in Italy: An Empirical Investigation at Provincial Level.” Energia, Ambiente e Ennovazione, 1, 26-31.Hausman, J. A. (1978). “Specification Tests in Econometrics.” Econometrica, 46(6), 1251-1271.Hsing, Yu (1995a). “A Note on Interstate Migration and Tax Burdens: New Evidence.” Journal of Applied Business Research, 12(1), 12-14.Huang, J.T. and M.L. Chang (2018). “Social Welfare, Phantom Voter, and Internal Migration in Taiwan-Evidence from Panel Spatial Analysis.” Singapore Economic Review, Forthcoming.Lee, E. S. (1966). “A Theory of Migration.” Demography, 3(1), 47-57.LeSage, J. P. and R.K. Pace (2009). Introduction to Spatial Econometrics. Boca Raton, US: CRC Press Taylor and Francis Group.Liebig, T. and A. Sousa-Poza (2006). “The Influence of Taxes on Migration: Evidence from Switzerland.” Cambridge Journal of Economics, 30(2), 235-252.Liu, Z. and L. Yu (2020). “Stay or Leave? The Role of Air Pollution in Urban Migration Choices.” Ecological Economics, 177(C). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106780Mead, A. C. (1982). “A Simultaneous Equations Model of Migration and Economic Change in Nonmetropolitan Areas.” Journal of regional Science, 22(4), 513-527.Mikula, S. and M. Pytliková (2020). “Air Pollution & Migration: Exploiting a Natural Experiment from the Czech Republic.” EconPol Working Paper, 43.Pope, C., T. Burnett, J. Thun, E. Calle, D. Krewski, K. Ito, and D. Thurston (2002). “Lung Cancer, Cardiopulmonary Mortality, and Long-term Exposure to fine Particulate Air Pollution.” American Medical Association, 287(9), 1132-1141.Ravenstein, E. G. (1885). “The Laws of Migration.” Journal of the Statistical Society of London, 48(2), 167–235.Ravenstein, E. G. (1889). “The Laws of Migration.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 52(2), 241-305.Tiebout, C. M. (1956). “A Pure Theory of Local Expenditures.” Journal of Political Economy, 64(5), 416-424.Windzio, M. (2018). “The Network of Global Migration 1990–2013 Using ERGMs to Test Theories of Migration between Countries.” Social Networks, 53, 20-29.Xu, X. and K. Sylwester (2016). “Environmental Quality and International Migration.” KYKLOS, 69(1), 157–180.Zhang, M., N.T. Mueller, H. Wang, X. Hong, L.J. Appel, and X. Wang (2018). “Maternal Exposure to Ambient Particulate Matter ≤2.5 µm During Pregnancy and the Risk for High Blood Pressure in Childhood.” Hypertension, 72(1), 194-201. zh_TW dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.6814/NCCU202100656 en_US
