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題名 Predictive ability of similarity-based futures trading strategies
作者 郭維裕
Kuo, Wei-Yu
Chiang, Mi-Hsiu
Chiu, Hsin-Yu
貢獻者 國貿系
關鍵詞 Technical trading;Similarity-based analogical reasoning;Futures markets
日期 2021-09
上傳時間 2022-04-12
摘要 A trading rule that draws on the similarity-based analogical reasoning is proposed in an attempt to simulate the technical trading mentality—one that selectively perceives structural resemblances between market scenarios of the present and the past. In more than half of the nineteen futures markets that we test against for profitability of this similarity-based trading rule, we find evidence of predictive ability that is robust to data-snooping and transaction-cost adjustments. When aided by an exit strategy that liquidates the trader`s positions across some evenly-spaced time points, this rule generates the most robust returns and survives the in- and out-of-sample tests.
關聯 Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Vol.68, pp.101616
資料類型 article
DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2021.101616
dc.contributor 國貿系
dc.creator (作者) 郭維裕
dc.creator (作者) Kuo, Wei-Yu
dc.creator (作者) Chiang, Mi-Hsiu
dc.creator (作者) Chiu, Hsin-Yu
dc.date (日期) 2021-09
dc.date.accessioned 2022-04-12-
dc.date.available 2022-04-12-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2022-04-12-
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/139830-
dc.description.abstract (摘要) A trading rule that draws on the similarity-based analogical reasoning is proposed in an attempt to simulate the technical trading mentality—one that selectively perceives structural resemblances between market scenarios of the present and the past. In more than half of the nineteen futures markets that we test against for profitability of this similarity-based trading rule, we find evidence of predictive ability that is robust to data-snooping and transaction-cost adjustments. When aided by an exit strategy that liquidates the trader`s positions across some evenly-spaced time points, this rule generates the most robust returns and survives the in- and out-of-sample tests.
dc.format.extent 643843 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.relation (關聯) Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Vol.68, pp.101616
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Technical trading;Similarity-based analogical reasoning;Futures markets
dc.title (題名) Predictive ability of similarity-based futures trading strategies
dc.type (資料類型) article
dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.1016/j.pacfin.2021.101616
dc.doi.uri (DOI) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2021.101616