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題名 整合印太地區空中威懾之研究
The Study of Indo-Pacific Integrated Air Deterrence作者 何克力
Hawkley, Cooper Miles貢獻者 甯方璽
Ning, Fang-Shii
何克力
Hawkley, Cooper Miles關鍵詞 威懾
整合威懾
整合空中威懾
空中武力
Deterrence
Integrated Deterrence
Integrated Air Deterrence
Air Power日期 2022 上傳時間 1-七月-2022 16:31:10 (UTC+8) 摘要 本研究探討了美國印太地區盟國及夥伴的空軍武力，作為新的整合空中威懾戰略的面向，並研究對中國侵略威脅的集體威懾的行動方針。美國的整合威懾戰略仍在發展中，目前並沒有明確的與盟國整合的政策，因此本研究為整合空中威懾的先驅，首先決定了盟國和夥伴參與南中國海和臺灣海峽潛在衝突情景的空中綜合威懾領域的意願和能力，利用各種資料庫及報導綜整編製和分析了多種指標，如當前的空軍能力、條約、最近的政治聲明、歷史軍事合作及武器相容性，以確定為整合威懾做出貢獻的意願和能力。再從那些願意和能夠合作的國家中，建立了潛在的威懾聯盟，並將其總空中力量能力與北約-俄羅斯空中力量平衡進行比較，作為可信和充分威懾的參考。最後，提出了增加盟國和夥伴集體威懾中國的意願和能力和建議。由研究成果可知美國、澳大利亞和日本之間最有可能進行空軍整合，因為他們在南中國海和臺灣海峽衝突的這兩種情況下都最有意願和能力威懾中國；另在在上述兩種衝突情況下，菲律賓都將是一個重要的基地。將印度納入聯盟的可信成員是整合空中威懾的最大收益，可使印度太平洋聯盟的空中武力與北約可抗衡俄羅斯空中武力平衡相當。關於美國加強印度太平洋地區空中力量一體化的建議包括建立一所聯合飛行員培訓學校，向威懾夥伴打折和加快出售武器，以及鞏固分散的簡易機場基地等。
This research explored the potential integration of U.S. and Indo-Pacific ally/partner air forces as a component of the new integrated deterrence strategy and examined courses of action to increase collective deterrence of Chinese aggression. Integrated deterrence is still in development with no clear policy for integration with foreign forces. This research first determines the willingness and ability of allies and partners to participate in the air domain of integrated deterrence for potential conflict scenarios in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait. Multiple indicators like current air force capabilities, treaty requirements, recent political statements, historical military cooperation, and weapons compatibility are compiled and analyzed to determine willingness and ability to contribute to collective deterrence. From those nations willing and able to cooperate, potential deterrence coalitions are made and their total air power capabilities compared with the NATO-Russia air power balance as a reference for credible and sufficient deterrence. Finally, recommendations for increasing allies and partners willingness and ability to collectively deter China are made.Integration of air forces is most likely to occur between the U.S., Australia, and Japan as they are the most willing and able to deter China in both scenarios. Taiwan is added in a Taiwan Strait crisis. The Philippines will be a vital basing location in either scenario. The inclusion of India as a credible member of an air deterrence network is the largest potential gain for air deterrence bringing hypothetical coalitions to near parity with the NATO-Russia air power balance. 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國立政治大學
亞太研究英語碩士學位學程(IMAS)
109926029資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109926029 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 甯方璽 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Ning, Fang-Shii en_US dc.contributor.author (作者) 何克力 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (作者) Hawkley, Cooper Miles en_US dc.creator (作者) 何克力 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Hawkley, Cooper Miles en_US dc.date (日期) 2022 en_US dc.date.accessioned 1-七月-2022 16:31:10 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 1-七月-2022 16:31:10 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 1-七月-2022 16:31:10 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) G0109926029 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/140710 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 亞太研究英語碩士學位學程(IMAS) zh_TW dc.description (描述) 109926029 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究探討了美國印太地區盟國及夥伴的空軍武力，作為新的整合空中威懾戰略的面向，並研究對中國侵略威脅的集體威懾的行動方針。美國的整合威懾戰略仍在發展中，目前並沒有明確的與盟國整合的政策，因此本研究為整合空中威懾的先驅，首先決定了盟國和夥伴參與南中國海和臺灣海峽潛在衝突情景的空中綜合威懾領域的意願和能力，利用各種資料庫及報導綜整編製和分析了多種指標，如當前的空軍能力、條約、最近的政治聲明、歷史軍事合作及武器相容性，以確定為整合威懾做出貢獻的意願和能力。再從那些願意和能夠合作的國家中，建立了潛在的威懾聯盟，並將其總空中力量能力與北約-俄羅斯空中力量平衡進行比較，作為可信和充分威懾的參考。最後，提出了增加盟國和夥伴集體威懾中國的意願和能力和建議。由研究成果可知美國、澳大利亞和日本之間最有可能進行空軍整合，因為他們在南中國海和臺灣海峽衝突的這兩種情況下都最有意願和能力威懾中國；另在在上述兩種衝突情況下，菲律賓都將是一個重要的基地。將印度納入聯盟的可信成員是整合空中威懾的最大收益，可使印度太平洋聯盟的空中武力與北約可抗衡俄羅斯空中武力平衡相當。關於美國加強印度太平洋地區空中力量一體化的建議包括建立一所聯合飛行員培訓學校，向威懾夥伴打折和加快出售武器，以及鞏固分散的簡易機場基地等。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) This research explored the potential integration of U.S. and Indo-Pacific ally/partner air forces as a component of the new integrated deterrence strategy and examined courses of action to increase collective deterrence of Chinese aggression. Integrated deterrence is still in development with no clear policy for integration with foreign forces. This research first determines the willingness and ability of allies and partners to participate in the air domain of integrated deterrence for potential conflict scenarios in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait. Multiple indicators like current air force capabilities, treaty requirements, recent political statements, historical military cooperation, and weapons compatibility are compiled and analyzed to determine willingness and ability to contribute to collective deterrence. From those nations willing and able to cooperate, potential deterrence coalitions are made and their total air power capabilities compared with the NATO-Russia air power balance as a reference for credible and sufficient deterrence. Finally, recommendations for increasing allies and partners willingness and ability to collectively deter China are made.Integration of air forces is most likely to occur between the U.S., Australia, and Japan as they are the most willing and able to deter China in both scenarios. Taiwan is added in a Taiwan Strait crisis. The Philippines will be a vital basing location in either scenario. The inclusion of India as a credible member of an air deterrence network is the largest potential gain for air deterrence bringing hypothetical coalitions to near parity with the NATO-Russia air power balance. Recommendations for increasing integration of air power in the region include the creation of a Joint Pilot Training school, discounted and expedited sales of weapons to deterrence partners and solidification of dispersed airstrip basing, among others. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents Acknowledgements IDisclaimer IAbstract II摘要 IIITable of Contents IVList of Tables VIIList of Figures VIIAbbreviations VIII1 Introduction 11.1 Introduction 11.2 Research Questions and Purpose 41.3 Methodology 61.4 Organization 81.5 Definition of Key Terms 92 Literature Review 132.1 Conceptualization of Integrated Deterrence 132.2 U.S. Air Power in Indo-Pacific 142.2.1 The U.S. In a Taiwan or SCS Scenario 152.3 Rising Chinese Aggression: 162.4 Building Allies’ Capabilities 172.4.1 Strengthening Indo-Pacific Allies 182.5 Indo-Pacific Integrated Deterrence 192.5.1 INDOPACOM Integrated Air and Missile Defense 202.6 NATO Air Power 212.7 Foreign Military Aid 222.8 Integrated Deterrence: Allies and Partners 242.9 Conclusion of Literature Review 243 Country Profiles 263.1 Country Evaluation Criteria 263.2 United States 293.3 Taiwan (ROC) 363.4 Treaty Allies of the United States 403.4.1 Australia 403.4.2 Japan 443.4.3 The Philippines 493.4.4 South Korea (Republic of Korea) 523.4.5 Thailand 553.5 U.S. Partners in the Indo-Pacific 573.5.2 India 573.5.3 Indonesia 613.5.4 Malaysia 653.5.5 Singapore 673.5.6 Vietnam 693.6 European Allies 733.6.1 United Kingdom 733.6.2 France 743.6.3 Italy 753.6.4 Spain 753.7 China 763.8 Country Profiles Conclusions 794 Hypothetical Deterrence Coalitions 814.1 NATO-Russia Balance of Air Power 844.2 U.S.-China Balance of Air Power 854.3 Potential Coalitions-China Balance Taiwan Scenario 874.3.1 U.S.+ Taiwan 874.3.2 U.S., Japan, Australia, Taiwan 884.3.3 QUAD+ Taiwan 894.3.4 Taiwan Scenario Graphs and Conclusion 904.4 Potential Coalitions-China Balance South China Sea Scenario 914.4.1 U.S., Japan, Australia, the Philippines 924.4.2 QUAD+ Vietnam, the Philippines 934.4.3 South China Sea Scenario Graphs and Conclusion 944.5 Regional Coalitions 954.5.1 All Indo-Pacific U.S. Allies and Leading Regional Partners 964.6 Conclusions of Hypothetical Coalitions 965 Coalition Building 985.1 Joint Training 985.1.1 Joint Pilot Training 995.1.2 Joint Exercises 1015.2 Codification of Obligations 1025.2.1 Priority Weapons Sales 1055.2.2 Intelligence Sharing System 1055.2.3 Shared Combat Data Link 1065.2.4 Chain of Command 1075.2.5 Joint Research and Development 1075.2.6 Basing Agreements 1085.2.7 Abandon Strategic Ambiguity 1095.3 Coercions Resistance 1095.4 Building Coalitions Conclusion 1106 Conclusions 1126.1 Findings 1136.1.1 Taiwan Scenario Findings 1146.1.2 South China Sea Findings 1156.1.3 Deterrence Agreements 1156.2 Implications 1176.3 Research Impact 119Bibliography 121Appendices 136Appendix 1: Military Economic Interaction of Regional Countries with the U.S. 136Appendix 2: Freedom, Corruption, and Political Compatibility 137Appendix 3: Defense Spending and Manpower 138Appendix 4: Population and Economic Situation of Countries 139Appendix 5: Major Foreign Military Sales to Australia 2011-2021 140Appendix 6: Major Foreign Military Sales to India 2011-2021 144Appendix 7: Major Foreign Military Sales to Indonesia 2011-2021 145Appendix 8: Major Foreign Military Sales to Japan 2011-2021 146Appendix 9: Major Foreign Military Sales to the Philippines 2011-2021 148Appendix 10: Major Foreign Military Sales to Singapore 2011-2021 149Appendix 11: Major Foreign Military Sales to South Korea 2011-2021 150Appendix 12: Major Foreign Military Sales to Taiwan 2011-2021 152Appendix 13: Major Foreign Military Sales to Thailand 2011-2021 154Appendix 14: NATO Total Combat Coded Air Power 155Appendix 15: Indo-Pacific Regional Combat Coded Air Power 157 zh_TW dc.format.extent 1916651 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109926029 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 威懾 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 整合威懾 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 整合空中威懾 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 空中武力 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Deterrence en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Integrated Deterrence en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Integrated Air Deterrence en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Air Power en_US dc.title (題名) 整合印太地區空中威懾之研究 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The Study of Indo-Pacific Integrated Air Deterrence en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “2020 Corruption Perceptions Index.” Transparency International. 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