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題名 俄羅斯股市的內、外部影響因素與其市場特質研究
A study on the internal and external impact factors of Russian stock market and its market’s features
作者 潘志慶
Pan, Chih-Ching
貢獻者 洪美蘭
Hung, Mei-Lan
潘志慶
Pan, Chih-Ching
關鍵詞 俄羅斯股市
能源
盧布
尤科斯案
克里米亞危機
經濟轉型
Russian stock market
energy
ruble
Yukos case
crisis in Crimea
economic transformation
日期 2022
上傳時間 1-八月-2022 18:43:49 (UTC+8)
摘要 股票市場瞬息萬變，在資訊發達的現代社會更是如此。不僅國家內部的政策、政經情況或天災；就連國際局勢變遷、系統性風險都可能以不同形式和藉由不同媒介直接或間接影響股市，使其產生劇烈震盪，更可能影響投資人權益，因此對於不同重大類型事件在股市中的反應，投資人必須有初步掌握。
股價產生變化的因素不少，但是有幾項為公認的必要觀察指標，本文將以俄羅斯股市相關之基本面、產業面和其獨特發展背景、特殊國內或全球事件進行分析。透析指標事件擁有之意義及屬性，再將之與具有代表全體股市的股價指數進行對照，裨益投資人在參與俄羅斯股市的同時也能注意危機的可能訊號並提防產生重大損失的機會。
文中首先將對俄羅斯股市發展做初步簡介，從蘇聯解體後正式成立、服務內容的擴增、金融商品拓展到後期政府為穩定市場之政策與作為、股市主要的交易規則等，皆為本文股市初探內容。
其次，分別詳述分析與俄羅斯最密切之能源表現、匯率表現、政局氛圍與特質、尤科斯案、新冠肺炎、出口貿易順差、經濟轉型的改變、克里米亞危機等，影響股價變化的內外部因素。藉由大範圍完整地不同內外影響因素檢視，最後於結論統一歸納出俄羅斯股市之優缺點和特色，期盼從不同角度、規模能夠獲得嶄新的思考與認知。
The stock market is sensitive and very efficient, especially today with advanced information. There are many reasons that can affect the stock market. National policies, natural disasters, international situations, and systemic risks may directly or indirectly impact the stock market, causing violent volatility in the market, and investors may suffer heavy losses. Investors should thoroughly understand and master the reactions of different major types of events in the stock market.
Despite the fact that stock prices are ever-changing, there are still particularly influential factors. The article chooses international trade, industry, political events, and global events as a comparison with the performance of the stock market for analyzing the events impact on the market from important internal and external factors.
Before observing the trend of the stock market, the research project will be analyzed for the purpose of having a clear understanding of the subject and background. After analyzing the significance of the incident, the point will focus on the stock price index with changes, magnitudes, and characteristics. The indication we get from above will help investors pay attention to possible crises when investing in the Russian stock market, so as to prevent major losses.
The article covers several aspects, firstly, including the initial development of the Russian stock market, the expansion of service content, the expansion of financial products to the later government’s policies and actions for stabilizing the market. Then, the other parts consist of the study of stock market changes with internal and external factors. The observations in each chapter will be summarized as the reaction of the Russian stock market to these factors, the all contenents try to provide a new way of thinking from multiple aspects and perspectives.
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描述 碩士
國立政治大學
俄羅斯研究所
108263007
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108263007
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 洪美蘭zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Hung, Mei-Lanen_US
dc.contributor.author (作者) 潘志慶zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (作者) Pan, Chih-Chingen_US
dc.creator (作者) 潘志慶zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Pan, Chih-Chingen_US
dc.date (日期) 2022en_US
dc.date.accessioned 1-八月-2022 18:43:49 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 1-八月-2022 18:43:49 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 1-八月-2022 18:43:49 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) G0108263007en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/141321-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 俄羅斯研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 108263007zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 股票市場瞬息萬變，在資訊發達的現代社會更是如此。不僅國家內部的政策、政經情況或天災；就連國際局勢變遷、系統性風險都可能以不同形式和藉由不同媒介直接或間接影響股市，使其產生劇烈震盪，更可能影響投資人權益，因此對於不同重大類型事件在股市中的反應，投資人必須有初步掌握。
股價產生變化的因素不少，但是有幾項為公認的必要觀察指標，本文將以俄羅斯股市相關之基本面、產業面和其獨特發展背景、特殊國內或全球事件進行分析。透析指標事件擁有之意義及屬性，再將之與具有代表全體股市的股價指數進行對照，裨益投資人在參與俄羅斯股市的同時也能注意危機的可能訊號並提防產生重大損失的機會。
文中首先將對俄羅斯股市發展做初步簡介，從蘇聯解體後正式成立、服務內容的擴增、金融商品拓展到後期政府為穩定市場之政策與作為、股市主要的交易規則等，皆為本文股市初探內容。
其次，分別詳述分析與俄羅斯最密切之能源表現、匯率表現、政局氛圍與特質、尤科斯案、新冠肺炎、出口貿易順差、經濟轉型的改變、克里米亞危機等，影響股價變化的內外部因素。藉由大範圍完整地不同內外影響因素檢視，最後於結論統一歸納出俄羅斯股市之優缺點和特色，期盼從不同角度、規模能夠獲得嶄新的思考與認知。		zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) The stock market is sensitive and very efficient, especially today with advanced information. There are many reasons that can affect the stock market. National policies, natural disasters, international situations, and systemic risks may directly or indirectly impact the stock market, causing violent volatility in the market, and investors may suffer heavy losses. Investors should thoroughly understand and master the reactions of different major types of events in the stock market.
Despite the fact that stock prices are ever-changing, there are still particularly influential factors. The article chooses international trade, industry, political events, and global events as a comparison with the performance of the stock market for analyzing the events impact on the market from important internal and external factors.
Before observing the trend of the stock market, the research project will be analyzed for the purpose of having a clear understanding of the subject and background. After analyzing the significance of the incident, the point will focus on the stock price index with changes, magnitudes, and characteristics. The indication we get from above will help investors pay attention to possible crises when investing in the Russian stock market, so as to prevent major losses.
The article covers several aspects, firstly, including the initial development of the Russian stock market, the expansion of service content, the expansion of financial products to the later government’s policies and actions for stabilizing the market. Then, the other parts consist of the study of stock market changes with internal and external factors. The observations in each chapter will be summarized as the reaction of the Russian stock market to these factors, the all contenents try to provide a new way of thinking from multiple aspects and perspectives.		en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第壹章 緒論 6
第一節 研究動機、研究目的 6
第二節 文獻回顧 11
第三節 研究途徑、研究方法 20
第四節 研究範圍、研究限制 25
第五節 章節安排 28

第貳章 股市發展與現狀 30
第一節 俄羅斯股市發展概論 30
第二節 交易制度 41
第三節 國際資金參與俄國股市之情況 45

第參章 俄羅斯股市的內部影響因素 57
第一節 俄羅斯政治環境與風險 57
第二節 利率政策 62
第三節 尤科斯石油公司事件 68
第四節 新型冠狀病毒肺炎之衝擊 74
第五節 經濟轉型與貧富不均 81

第肆章 俄羅斯股市的外部影響因素 89
第一節 克里米亞危機與經濟制裁 89
第二節 盧布匯價與股市表現之變化 100
第三節 能源與股市表現之變化 108
第四節 俄羅斯對外貿易與股市變化 121
第五節 系統性風險對俄羅斯股市之衝擊 128

第伍章 結論 139
第一節 俄羅斯股市影響因素之長短期綜合比較 139
第二節 俄羅斯股市表現之特性 141
第三節 對俄羅斯股市之見解與研究意見 147

參考文獻 151		zh_TW
dc.format.extent 5178510 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108263007en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 俄羅斯股市zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 能源zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 盧布zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 尤科斯案zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 克里米亞危機zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 經濟轉型zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Russian stock marketen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) energyen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) rubleen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Yukos caseen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) crisis in Crimeaen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) economic transformationen_US
dc.title (題名) 俄羅斯股市的內、外部影響因素與其市場特質研究zh_TW
dc.title (題名) A study on the internal and external impact factors of Russian stock market and its market’s featuresen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
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二、外文文獻

（一）專書

1.Alexeev Michael & Weber Shlomo, “The Oxford Handbook of the Russian Economy. The Oxford Handbook of the Russian Economy”, Oxford University Press, 2013.
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（二）期刊論文

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20.Mensi Walid, Rehman Mobeen Ur, Maitra Debasish, Al-Yahyaee Khamis Hamed & Xuan Vinh Vo, "Oil, Natural Gas and BRICS Stock Markets: Evidence of Systemic Risks and Co-Movements in the Time-Frequency Domain", Resources Policy, Vol.72, 2021.
21.Mroua Mourad & Trabelsi Lotfi, “Causality and dynamic relationships between exchange rate and stock market indices in BRICS countries.” Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, Vol. 25, No. 50, 2020, 395-412.
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23.Nivorozhkin Eugene & Castagneto-Gissey Giorgio,"Russian Stock Market in the Aftermath of the Ukrainian Crisis", Russian Journal of Economics, Vol.2, 2016, 23–40.
24.Pitts Chip & A. Ovsyannikova, "Russia’s New Treason Statute, Anti-NGO and Other Repressive Laws: Sovereign Democracy or Renewed Autocracy?", Houston Journal of International Law, Vol.37, 2015, 129-135.
25.Rubtsov Boris & Annenskaya Natalya,"Factor Analysis of the Russian Stock Market", Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, Vol,7, 2018 , 417–425
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27.Tao Liu & Thye Woo, “Understanding the U.S.-China Trade War”, China Economic Journal, Vol.11, 2018, 319-340.
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29.Wheeler Collette, Baffes John, Kabundi Alain, Kindberg-Hanlon Gene, S. Nagle Peter, Franziska L. Ohnsorge, “Adding Fuel to the Fire Cheap Oil during the COVID-19 Pandemic”, Policy Research Working Paper, No. 9320, 2020, 5.

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dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.6814/NCCU202200924en_US