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題名 前南斯拉夫各國族群衝突事件數量多寡原因之探討
Investigating the Variation of the Number of Ethnic Conflicts among the Former-Yugoslavia Countries作者 蔡秉勲
Tsai, Ping-Hsun貢獻者 薛健吾
Hsueh, Chien-Wu
蔡秉勲
Tsai, Ping-Hsun關鍵詞 南斯拉夫
族群衝突
民族主義
布林函數
Yugoslavia
ethnic conflict
nationalism
Boolean analysis日期 2022 上傳時間 1-八月-2022 18:44:01 (UTC+8) 摘要 南斯拉夫於1990年代解體並先後獨立出七個國家。然而，同樣是自南斯拉夫獨立且都有潛在族群衝突問題的前南各國，為何斯洛維尼亞、克羅埃西亞、科索沃及蒙特內哥羅等四國在獨立之後的族群衝突事件較少，而北馬其頓、塞爾維亞和波赫等三國在獨立之後的族群衝突事件較多。文獻中的研究雖然豐富，但大多僅限於針對某些特定國家或特定因素的分析，迄今尚未有一個較為通則性的解釋。本文根據文獻的建議，篩選出「該國族群間的經濟是否平等」、「該國少數族群在代議機構中的代表性是否足夠」、「該國少數族群的人口比例是否」以及「該國對少數族群的法律保障是否完善」等四個較為重要的系統性變數進行布林函數分析，並且發現「該國族群間的經濟是否平等」是影響前南各國族群衝突多寡的最關鍵原因。
A total of seven states were split from Yugoslavia after the breakup in the 1990s. Despite having potential ethnic conflicts in all states that succeeded Yugoslavia, why do Slovenia, Croatia, Kosovo, and Montenegro have fewer ethnic conflicts while North Macedonia, Serbia, and Bosnia have more ethnic conflicts? While there are plenty of previous studies about ethnic conflicts, most of them focus on analysis of certain countries or factors without any nomothetic explanation. By suggestions of the literatures, this thesis selects “economic equality among ethnic groups”, “representation of minorities in representative institution”, “proportion of minority population” and “legal assurance to minorities” as four significant systemic variables in Boolean analysis. 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國立政治大學
俄羅斯研究所
109263006資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109263006 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 薛健吾 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Hsueh, Chien-Wu en_US dc.contributor.author (作者) 蔡秉勲 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (作者) Tsai, Ping-Hsun en_US dc.creator (作者) 蔡秉勲 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Tsai, Ping-Hsun en_US dc.date (日期) 2022 en_US dc.date.accessioned 1-八月-2022 18:44:01 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 1-八月-2022 18:44:01 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 1-八月-2022 18:44:01 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) G0109263006 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/141322 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 俄羅斯研究所 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 109263006 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 南斯拉夫於1990年代解體並先後獨立出七個國家。然而，同樣是自南斯拉夫獨立且都有潛在族群衝突問題的前南各國，為何斯洛維尼亞、克羅埃西亞、科索沃及蒙特內哥羅等四國在獨立之後的族群衝突事件較少，而北馬其頓、塞爾維亞和波赫等三國在獨立之後的族群衝突事件較多。文獻中的研究雖然豐富，但大多僅限於針對某些特定國家或特定因素的分析，迄今尚未有一個較為通則性的解釋。本文根據文獻的建議，篩選出「該國族群間的經濟是否平等」、「該國少數族群在代議機構中的代表性是否足夠」、「該國少數族群的人口比例是否」以及「該國對少數族群的法律保障是否完善」等四個較為重要的系統性變數進行布林函數分析，並且發現「該國族群間的經濟是否平等」是影響前南各國族群衝突多寡的最關鍵原因。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) A total of seven states were split from Yugoslavia after the breakup in the 1990s. Despite having potential ethnic conflicts in all states that succeeded Yugoslavia, why do Slovenia, Croatia, Kosovo, and Montenegro have fewer ethnic conflicts while North Macedonia, Serbia, and Bosnia have more ethnic conflicts? While there are plenty of previous studies about ethnic conflicts, most of them focus on analysis of certain countries or factors without any nomothetic explanation. By suggestions of the literatures, this thesis selects “economic equality among ethnic groups”, “representation of minorities in representative institution”, “proportion of minority population” and “legal assurance to minorities” as four significant systemic variables in Boolean analysis. This thesis concludes that the level of economic equality between ethnic groups is the key factor affecting the quantity of ethnic conflicts among those states. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1第一節 研究動機與目的 1第二節 研究問題 2第三節 過去相關文獻簡介回顧 7一、南斯拉夫解體前後的族群衝突 7二、過去的研究尚未回答之問題 10第四節 研究方法 12第五節 研究範圍與限制 13一、研究範圍 13二、研究限制 13第六節、章節安排 14第二章 名詞釋義、南斯拉夫各族歷史探討與文獻分析 15第一節 名詞釋義 15第二節 南斯拉夫統一前的各族歷史 16一、塞爾維亞族 16二、克羅埃西亞族 19三、斯洛維尼亞族 21四、波士尼亞克族 22五、蒙特內哥羅族 22六、馬其頓族 23七、阿爾巴尼亞族 24八、小結 24第三節 南斯拉夫作為共同體的成立與解體 25一、南斯拉夫成立的背景 25二、南斯拉夫內部的爭端 26三、南斯拉夫的裂解 28四、前南斯拉夫各國的現況 31第四節 過去對於前南各國族群衝突程度差異的解釋 42一、南斯拉夫解體前的族群衝突解釋 42二、南斯拉夫解體後各國族群衝突的解釋 43第五節 過去研究的不足之處 51第六節 本文的論點 57第三章 研究設計 61第一節 設計陳述與研究前提 61第二節 實證命題 65一、自變數選取 66二、研究方法與數據 81第三節 小結 93第四章 族群衝突次數少的國家：斯洛維尼亞、克羅埃西亞、科索沃和蒙特內哥羅 95第一節 斯洛維尼亞 95一、與境內的「南斯拉夫族」關係 95二、與境內其他族群的關係 97三、族群衝突少的原因 98四、小結 100第二節 克羅埃西亞 100一、與境內塞族的關係 100二、與境內其他族群的關係 106三、族群衝突多轉少的原因 107四、小結 109第三節 科索沃 109一、與境內塞族的關係 109二、與境內其他族群的關係 114三、族群衝突數量少的原因 114四、與公式的比較 115五、小結 116第四節 蒙特內哥羅 116一、與境內塞族的關係 117二、與其他少數族群的關係 120三、族群衝突數量少的原因 123四、與公式的比較 126五、小結 126第五節 本章小結 127第五章 族群衝突次數多的國家：北馬其頓、塞爾維亞和波赫 129第一節 北馬其頓 129一、與境內阿族的關係 130二、與境內其他族群的關係 132三、北馬其頓族群衝突從多轉少的原因 133四、與公式的比較 134五、小結 135第二節 塞爾維亞 136一、與境內各主要少數族群的關係 136二、與境內其他族群的關係 148三、族群衝突由多至少的原因 149四、與公式的比較 151五、小結 151第三節 波赫 152一、與境內各主要族群的關係 154二、與境內其他族群關係 162三、波赫衝突由多轉少 163四、與公式的比較 164五、小結 165第四節 本章小結 166第六章 結論 167參考書目 171 zh_TW dc.format.extent 2403240 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109263006 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 南斯拉夫 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 族群衝突 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 民族主義 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 布林函數 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Yugoslavia en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) ethnic conflict en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) nationalism en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Boolean analysis en_US dc.title (題名) 前南斯拉夫各國族群衝突事件數量多寡原因之探討 zh_TW dc.title (題名) Investigating the Variation of the Number of Ethnic Conflicts among the Former-Yugoslavia Countries en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中文參考文獻：杜子信，1997，〈南斯拉夫內戰之探討〉，《俄情雜誌》，6(2): 50-73。杜子信，2010，〈由前南斯拉夫的解體案例看中國對民族主義浪潮的應對態度〉，《社會主義國家政經轉型》國際研討會，嘉義：南華大學。杜子信，2020，《奧地利史－藍色多瑙國度的興衰與重生》，台北：三民。洪茂雄，2005，《南斯拉夫史：巴爾幹國家的分與合》。台北：三民。郭秋慶，2015，〈波士尼亞與赫塞哥維納憲政體制的選擇及其運作－－兼論「戴頓協定」20週年政局的發展〉，《台灣國際研究季刊》，11 (4): 111-131。外文參考文獻：Alekšić, Budimir and Slavko Krstajić. 2003. 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