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題名 2022年俄烏戰爭對台灣的啟示
The Implications of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine Conflict for Taiwan作者 葉大偉
Eguigure, David Tawisti Herrera貢獻者 朱琇妍
Chu，Shiou-Yen
葉大偉
David Tawisti Herrera Eguigure關鍵詞 台灣
俄羅斯
烏克蘭
中國
戰爭
制裁
Taiwan
Russia
Ukraine
China
Conflict
Sanctions日期 2023 上傳時間 2-八月-2023 12:56:37 (UTC+8) 摘要 本文分析了 2022 年俄羅斯與烏克蘭的衝突，並權衡了台灣與中國大陸緊張局勢加劇的影響。 通過分析歐盟的行動、制裁以及2022年俄烏衝突的發展，得出的結論是，在最有可能封鎖的情況下，台灣最好的出路就是囤積各種物資。 鑑於戰爭的不可預測性，物資儲備將確保台灣能夠承受長期衝突。 最後，可能發生的衝突的結果將取決於國際社會的及時行動。
This paper analyses the 2022 Russia-Ukraine Conflict and weighs the implications for Taiwan regarding rising tensions with China. Through the analysis of actions taken by the European Union, sanctions and the developments of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine Conflict it is concluded that, in the case of most likely blockade, the best route for Taiwan is to stockpile supplies of all kinds. Given the unpredictable nature of war, the stockpiling of supplies will ensure Taiwan’s enduring a prolonged conflict. Finally, the result of a possible conflict will be determined by the timely actions of the international community.參考文獻 AFP. (2023). The Taiwan Strait -- a history of crises. Retrieved May 15 from https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/the-taiwan-strait-a-history-of-crises/articleshow/99397859.cms Alexander, K. (2009). Economic sanctions : law and public policy. Palgrave Macmillan. Archick, K., & United States: Library of Congress: Congressional Research Service (CRS). (2023). Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: European Union Responses and Implications for U.S.-EU Relations (CRS Insights, Issue. https://www.everycrsreport.com/files/2023-05-15_IN11897_11efc33ba0c9baf3107ea6ac0f72778bbe3ffbcc.pdf Barber, J. (1979). Economic Sanctions As a Policy Instrument. International Affairs (Royal Institute of International Affairs 1944-), 55(3), 367-384. https://doi.org/10.2307/2615145 Barbieri, K. (2002). The Liberal Illusion Does Trade Promote Peace? University of Michigan Press. https://doi.org/10.3998/mpub.16590 BBC. (2019). Taiwan profile - Timeline. BBC News. Retrieved April 24 from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-16178545 Blanchard, B. (2023). Taiwan military to get $619 million U.S. arms boost as China keeps up pressure. Reuters. Retrieved June 1 from https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-reports-21-chinese-air-force-planes-entered-its-air-defence-zone-2023-03-02/ Bloomenthal, A. (2021). Four Asian Tigers: What They Are, Economic Strengths Explained. Investopedia. Retrieved April 24 from https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/four-asian-tigers.asp Britannica. (n.d.). Russia-Ukraine War. Britannica. Retrieved December 16 from https://www.britannica.com/event/2022-Russian-invasion-of-Ukraine Brown, H., Prueher, J. W., Segal, A., & Council on Foreign Relations. Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies. (2003). Chinese military power. Council on Foreign Relations,. Center for Preventive Action. (2022). Conflict in Ukraine. Global Conflict Tracker. Retrieved December 13 from https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-ukraine Center for Strategic & International Studies. (2017). What Is the U.S. “One China” Policy, and Why Does it Matter? Retrieved April 3 from https://www.csis.org/analysis/what-us-one-china-policy-and-why-does-it-matter Center for Strategic & International Studies. (n.d.). What Does China Really Spend on its Military? CSIS. Retrieved May 10 from https://www.csis.org/analysis/what-does-china-really-spend-its-military CFI Team. (2022). Four Asian Tigers. Corporate Finance Institute. Retrieved April 24 from https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/economics/four-asian-tigers/# Cheng, E. (2022). Taiwan’s trade with China is far bigger than its trade with the U.S. Retrieved April 3 from https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/05/taiwans-trade-with-china-is-far-bigger-than-its-trade-with-the-us.html Cooper, J. C. (2023). Taiwan. Encyclopedia Britannica. Retrieved April 24 from https://www.britannica.com/place/Taiwan David, K. (2022). Why did Russia invade Ukraine? The Conversation. Retrieved December 14 from https://theconversation.com/why-did-russia-invade-ukraine-178512 Department of North American Affairs. (2023). US government officially notifies Taiwan of latest arms sale. Ministry of Foreign Affairs Repuplic of China (Taiwan). Retrieved March 2 from https://en.mofa.gov.tw/News_Content.aspx?n=1328&s=99804 Drezner, D. W. (2011). Sanctions Sometimes Smart: Targeted Sanctions in Theory and Practice. International Studies Review, 13(1), 96-108. Drun, J. (2017). One China, Multiple Interpretations. Center For Advanced China Research. Retrieved April 15 from https://www.ccpwatch.org/single-post/2017/12/29/one-china-multiple-interpretations Easton, I. (2019). The Chinese invasion threat : Taiwan`s defense and American strategy in Asia. Eastbridge Books. European Commission. (2022). Sanctions adopted following Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine. European Comission. Retrieved May 30 from https://finance.ec.europa.eu/eu-and-world/sanctions-restrictive-measures/sanctions-adopted-following-russias-military-aggression-against-ukraine_en#timeline-measures-adopted-in-2022 Eurostat-Statistics Explained. (2022). EU imports of energy products - recent developments. Retrieved December 27 from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=EU_imports_of_energy_products_-_recent_developments Farmer, R. D., & United States Congressional Budget Office. (1999). The Domestic Costs of Sanctions on Foreign Commerce. Congress of the U.S., Congressional Budget Office. Gigova, R., & Mogul, R. (2022). For first known time in public, Putin calls fighting in Ukraine a ‘war’. CNN. Retrieved December 24 from https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/22/europe/putin-uses-word-war-fighting-ukraine-russia-intl-hnk/index.html Halperin, M. H. (1966). The 1958 Taiwan Straits Crisis | A Documented History. RAND Corporation. Retrieved April 1 from https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_memoranda/RM4900.html Hufbauer, G. C., Schott, J. J., Elliott, K. A., & Oegg, B. (2009). Economic Sanctions Reconsidered. Peterson Institute for International Economics. International Crisis Group, Ero, C., & Artwood, R. (2023). 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2023. International Crisis Group. Retrieved April 14 from https://www.crisisgroup.org/global/10-conflicts-watch-2023 International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2023a). GDP, current prices International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2023b). Real GDP growth Jones, L. (2015). Societies Under Siege: Exploring How International Economic Sanctions (Do Not) Work. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198749325.001.0001 Kennedy, S. (2022). It’s Moving Time. Center for Strategic & International Studies. Kirikakha, A., Felbermayr, G. J., Syropoulos, C., Yalcin, E., & Yotov, Y. V. (2021). The Global Sanctions Data Base (GSDB): an update that includes the years of the Trump presidency. In Research Handbook on Economic Sanctions (pp. 62-106). Edward Elgar Publishing. Kohlmann, T. (2022). How much does Taiwan depend on China? DW News. Retrieved April 10 from https://www.dw.com/en/how-much-does-taiwan-depend-on-china/a-62725691 Kuhn, A. F., Emily. (2022). What 3 past Taiwan Strait crises can teach us about U.S.-China tensions today. NPR. Retrieved April 15 from https://www.npr.org/2022/08/02/1115234980/what-3-past-taiwan-strait-crises-can-teach-us-about-u-s-china-tensions-today Lee, J.-W. P., Ju Hyun. (2009). Does Trade Integration Contribute to Peace? WORKING PAPER SERIES ON REGIONAL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION(24). https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/28499/wp24-trade-integration-peace.pdf Li, Y. (2014). Constructing Peace in the Taiwan Strait: a constructivist analysis of the changing dynamics of identities and nationalisms. Journal of Contemporary China, 119-142. Lillis, K. B. (2022). “He has not made the decision to do that, but he has asked his military to put him in a position where if that`s what he wanted to do, he would be able to. It`s still the assessment of the IC as a whole that Xi`s interest in Taiwan is to get control through nonmilitary means.”. In @KatieBoLillis (Ed.): Twitter. Ma, J., & Zheng, W. (2022). Beijing will do its utmost for peaceful reunification with Taiwan, Xi Jinping says. South China Morning Post. Retrieved April 21 from Mankiw, N. G. (2021). Principles of economics (Ninth edition. ed.). Cengage Learning. Masters, J. (2019). What are Economic Sanctions? Council on Foreign Relations. Retrieved December 7 from https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-are-economic-sanctions Mastro, O. S. (2019). China’s Military Modernization Program: On Shifting Dynamics in the US-China Security Relationship. American Enterprise Institute Retrieved from https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/Panel%20II%20Mastro_Written%20Testimony.pdf Miller, C. (2022). The Chips That Make Taiwan the Center of the World. TIME. Retrieved April 25 from https://time.com/6219318/tsmc-taiwan-the-center-of-the-world/ Ministry of Finance Republic of China (Taiwan). (2023). Trade Statistics Database Nardelli, A. (2022). EU Finds Its Russia Sanctions Largely Spared Own Economies. Bloomberg. Retrieved December 30 from https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-08/eu-finds-its-russia-sanctions-largely-spared-its-own-economies?leadSource=uverify%20wall#xj4y7vzkg Nikolaos, T. (2015). The Impact of Economic and Political Sanctions on Economic Growth. A panel Data Analysis [Master’s Thesis, Wageningen University,]. Wageningen, Netherlands. https://edepot.wur.nl/343392 Pape, R. A. (1997). Why Economic Sanctions Do Not Work. International Security, 22(2), 90-136. https://doi.org/10.2307/2539368 Park, J. S. (2014). The Key to the North Korean Targeted Sanctions Puzzle. The Washington Quarterly, 37(3), 199-214. https://doi.org/10.1080/0163660X.2014.978444 Schropp, S., Lau, C., Mahlstein, K., & Latipov, O. (2022). The economic effects of potential EU tariff sanctions on Russia. The Centre for Economic Policy Research. Retrieved December 30 from https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/economic-effects-potential-eu-tariff-sanctions-russia Shivaram, D. (2021). China`s Xi Jinping urges a `peaceful reunification` with Taiwan. NPR. Retrieved April 21 from https://www.npr.org/2021/10/09/1044714406/xi-jinping-china-taiwan-peaceful-reunification Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). (2023a). SIPRI Arms Transfers Database (1950-2022) Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). (2023b). SIPRI Military Expenditure Database (1949-2022) SIPRI Military Expenditure Database. Sutter, K. M. (2022). U.S. - Taiwan Trade Relations (In Focus, Issue. C. R. Service. Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Association. (2022). Overview on Taiwan Semiconductor Industry. T. S. I. Association. Tanzarella, A., Hartmann, P., Molitor, P., & Jong, B. d. (2022). The Russia-Ukraine war, European financial integration, and crises. The Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR). Retrieved December 30 from https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/russia-ukraine-war-european-financial-integration-and-crises The Kremlin. (2022). 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國立政治大學
國際研究英語碩士學位學程(IMPIS)
106862020資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0106862020 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 朱琇妍 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Chu，Shiou-Yen en_US dc.contributor.author (作者) 葉大偉 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (作者) David Tawisti Herrera Eguigure en_US dc.creator (作者) 葉大偉 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Eguigure, David Tawisti Herrera en_US dc.date (日期) 2023 en_US dc.date.accessioned 2-八月-2023 12:56:37 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 2-八月-2023 12:56:37 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2-八月-2023 12:56:37 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) G0106862020 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/146272 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國際研究英語碩士學位學程(IMPIS) zh_TW dc.description (描述) 106862020 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本文分析了 2022 年俄羅斯與烏克蘭的衝突，並權衡了台灣與中國大陸緊張局勢加劇的影響。 通過分析歐盟的行動、制裁以及2022年俄烏衝突的發展，得出的結論是，在最有可能封鎖的情況下，台灣最好的出路就是囤積各種物資。 鑑於戰爭的不可預測性，物資儲備將確保台灣能夠承受長期衝突。 最後，可能發生的衝突的結果將取決於國際社會的及時行動。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) This paper analyses the 2022 Russia-Ukraine Conflict and weighs the implications for Taiwan regarding rising tensions with China. Through the analysis of actions taken by the European Union, sanctions and the developments of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine Conflict it is concluded that, in the case of most likely blockade, the best route for Taiwan is to stockpile supplies of all kinds. Given the unpredictable nature of war, the stockpiling of supplies will ensure Taiwan’s enduring a prolonged conflict. Finally, the result of a possible conflict will be determined by the timely actions of the international community. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents Acknowledgements i Abstract ii Table of Contents iii List of Figures v Chapter 1. Introduction 1 Chapter 2. Russia-Ukraine conflict – EU Sanctions 5 2.1. History 5 2.2. Precursors to the modern conflict 5 2.3. Russian Invasion of Ukraine 7 2.4. The European Union 8 2.5. The Economics Picture 10 2.6. Economic Sanctions levied by the European Union against Russia. 15 2.7. Estimated cost of the economic sanctions (for the European Union) 18 2.8. Consequences of the economic sanctions (locally or globally). 20 2.9. Domestic impact of the economic sanctions. 22 Chapter 3. Taiwan-China Relations 25 3.1. Taiwan History 25 3.2. One China Norm 27 3.3. Taiwan-China Relations 28 Chapter 4. Implications for Taiwan 33 4.1. Military Engagement 36 Chapter 5. Conclusions 42 References 46 zh_TW dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0106862020 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 台灣 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 俄羅斯 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 烏克蘭 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 中國 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 戰爭 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 制裁 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Taiwan en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Russia en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Ukraine en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) China en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Conflict en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Sanctions en_US dc.title (題名) 2022年俄烏戰爭對台灣的啟示 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The Implications of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine Conflict for Taiwan en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) AFP. (2023). The Taiwan Strait -- a history of crises. 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Retrieved December 14 from https://theconversation.com/why-did-russia-invade-ukraine-178512 Department of North American Affairs. (2023). US government officially notifies Taiwan of latest arms sale. Ministry of Foreign Affairs Repuplic of China (Taiwan). Retrieved March 2 from https://en.mofa.gov.tw/News_Content.aspx?n=1328&s=99804 Drezner, D. W. (2011). Sanctions Sometimes Smart: Targeted Sanctions in Theory and Practice. International Studies Review, 13(1), 96-108. Drun, J. (2017). One China, Multiple Interpretations. Center For Advanced China Research. Retrieved April 15 from https://www.ccpwatch.org/single-post/2017/12/29/one-china-multiple-interpretations Easton, I. (2019). The Chinese invasion threat : Taiwan`s defense and American strategy in Asia. Eastbridge Books. European Commission. (2022). Sanctions adopted following Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine. European Comission. Retrieved May 30 from https://finance.ec.europa.eu/eu-and-world/sanctions-restrictive-measures/sanctions-adopted-following-russias-military-aggression-against-ukraine_en#timeline-measures-adopted-in-2022 Eurostat-Statistics Explained. (2022). EU imports of energy products - recent developments. Retrieved December 27 from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=EU_imports_of_energy_products_-_recent_developments Farmer, R. D., & United States Congressional Budget Office. (1999). The Domestic Costs of Sanctions on Foreign Commerce. Congress of the U.S., Congressional Budget Office. Gigova, R., & Mogul, R. (2022). For first known time in public, Putin calls fighting in Ukraine a ‘war’. CNN. Retrieved December 24 from https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/22/europe/putin-uses-word-war-fighting-ukraine-russia-intl-hnk/index.html Halperin, M. H. (1966). The 1958 Taiwan Straits Crisis | A Documented History. RAND Corporation. Retrieved April 1 from https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_memoranda/RM4900.html Hufbauer, G. C., Schott, J. J., Elliott, K. A., & Oegg, B. (2009). Economic Sanctions Reconsidered. Peterson Institute for International Economics. International Crisis Group, Ero, C., & Artwood, R. (2023). 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2023. International Crisis Group. Retrieved April 14 from https://www.crisisgroup.org/global/10-conflicts-watch-2023 International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2023a). GDP, current prices International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2023b). Real GDP growth Jones, L. (2015). Societies Under Siege: Exploring How International Economic Sanctions (Do Not) Work. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198749325.001.0001 Kennedy, S. (2022). It’s Moving Time. Center for Strategic & International Studies. Kirikakha, A., Felbermayr, G. J., Syropoulos, C., Yalcin, E., & Yotov, Y. V. (2021). 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