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題名 新冠肺炎期間房市變化之分析
The Analysis of Changes in Real Estate Market during the COVID-19 pandemic作者 蘇湲庭
Su, Yuan-Ting貢獻者 陳明吉
Chen, Ming-Chi
蘇湲庭
Su, Yuan-Ting關鍵詞 新冠肺炎
疫情
恐慌
媒體報導
政府因應
房市
COVID-19
Pandemic
Panic
Media coverage
Government response
Real estate market日期 2024 上傳時間 1-七月-2024 12:39:23 (UTC+8) 摘要 2020年初以來，新冠肺炎疫情肆虐全球，對全球經濟帶來衝擊，對世界各地的房地產市場也造成影響。本研究探討台灣在疫情期間，疫情、恐慌、媒體、政府疫情因應與房市調控，以Google Trends關鍵詞建構恐慌指數、牛津疫情政府回應指數衡量政府的疫情因應程度、RavenPack Coronavirus Data衡量疫情報導，分析疫情對房市價量變化的影響。將疫情前一年也納入變數範圍，樣本期間為2019年1月至2023年12月，並依本土疫情嚴重程度將樣本期間細分為疫情全期、潛伏期、爆發期、緩和期，分析不同階段房屋價與量的變化。 實證結果顯示，確診數對房價為顯著負向影響，對交易量卻為顯著正向影響；一般消費者的恐慌在疫情潛伏期對房價為顯著負向影響，在疫情爆發期對房價卻為顯著正向影響；房市消費者的恐慌對交易量為顯著負向影響；媒體報導相關指數對房價為顯著正向影響；政府遏止與健康指數在全期對房價與交易量為負向影響，但在疫情爆發期對房價為顯著正向影響；政府經濟支持對房價為顯著正向影響；政府的房市調控政策對房價與交易量為顯著負向影響。 本研究旨在期許日後若發生類似疫情的事件時，政府可藉由經濟支持與管制政策的相互調節，央行可評估在寬鬆貨幣經濟情況下對房市的調控政策是否能確實抑制投機炒作，建商可依此事件探討住宅的需求變化，並提供與市場需求相應之住宅商品，投資人及購屋者也可藉此審時度勢，避免因恐慌而做出不理性之決策，以上，期望能憑藉經驗相似性穩定台灣的房地產市場。
Since early 2020, the world has suffered from the pandemic “COVID-19”, which has influenced the economy and the real estate markets globally. Thus, this study investigates the impact of various factors on housing prices and transaction volumes in Taiwan during the COVID-19 pandemic. The examined factors include severity of the epidemic, panic, media coverage, government responses to the pandemic, and government control policies on housing markets. This study uses Google Trends Search Volume Index to construct panic indices, the Oxford Covid-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) to measure government's responses, and RavenPack Coronavirus Monitor Data to measure media reports. The sample period includes both the pandemic year and the preceding year (from January 2019 to December 2023), divided into the preceding, the whole, the latency, the outbreak, and the decline stage according to the severity of the epidemic. The empirical results show that the number of confirmed cases has a negative impact on housing prices, but a positive impact on transaction volumes. General consumer panic has a significant negative impact on housing prices during the latency stage. Real estate consumer panic has a significant negative impact on transaction volumes. Media-related indices have a significant positive impact on housing prices. Government containment and health index has a significant impact on both housing prices and transaction volumes during the whole stage, but has a significant positive impact on housing prices during the ourbreak stage. Government economic support index has a significant positive impact on housing prices. Government’s housing market control policies have a significant negative impact on both housing prices and transaction volumes. This study aims to provide a reference for similar events in the future. The government can strike a balance between economic support and regulatory policies. The central bank can assess whether housing market control policies can effectively curb speculative activities in the real estate market. Property developers can provide housing products which align with market demand. Investors and homebuyers can avoid panic and make rational decisions. Overall, the goal is to stabilize Taiwan’s real estate market based on past experiences.參考文獻 一、中文文獻 中央銀行. (2023).中央銀行理監事聯席會議決議. 中央銀行季刊, 45(3), 1-4。 朱芳妮、楊茜文、黃御維、陳明吉. (2020). 媒體傳播效應與房市變化關聯性之驗證. 管理學報, 37(3), 225-257. 朱芳妮、楊茜文、蘇子涵、陳明吉. (2020). 情緒會影響房市嗎?指數編制與驗證. 住宅學報, 29(2), 35-68. 林左裕、徐士勛. (2024). 從新冠肺炎疫情之發生分析國際住宅不動產市場. 住宅學報, 33(1), 87-117. 陳淑美、張金鶚. (2002). 家戶遷移決策與路徑選擇之研究—台北縣市的實證研究. 住宅學報, 11(1), 1-22. 彭建文、張金鶚. (2000). 總體經濟對房地產景氣影響之研究. 國家科學委員會研究彙刊：人文及社會科學, 10(3), 330-343. 楊金龍. (2022). 央行在健全房市方案中扮演的角色. 中央銀行季刊, 44(1), 5-28. 劉祉岑、朱芳妮、陳明吉. 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Investor attention and the expected returns of reits. International Review of Economics and Finance, 48, 423-439. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財務管理學系
111357013資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111357013 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 陳明吉 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Chen, Ming-Chi en_US dc.contributor.author (作者) 蘇湲庭 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (作者) Su, Yuan-Ting en_US dc.creator (作者) 蘇湲庭 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Su, Yuan-Ting en_US dc.date (日期) 2024 en_US dc.date.accessioned 1-七月-2024 12:39:23 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 1-七月-2024 12:39:23 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 1-七月-2024 12:39:23 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) G0111357013 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/152065 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 財務管理學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 111357013 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 2020年初以來，新冠肺炎疫情肆虐全球，對全球經濟帶來衝擊，對世界各地的房地產市場也造成影響。本研究探討台灣在疫情期間，疫情、恐慌、媒體、政府疫情因應與房市調控，以Google Trends關鍵詞建構恐慌指數、牛津疫情政府回應指數衡量政府的疫情因應程度、RavenPack Coronavirus Data衡量疫情報導，分析疫情對房市價量變化的影響。將疫情前一年也納入變數範圍，樣本期間為2019年1月至2023年12月，並依本土疫情嚴重程度將樣本期間細分為疫情全期、潛伏期、爆發期、緩和期，分析不同階段房屋價與量的變化。 實證結果顯示，確診數對房價為顯著負向影響，對交易量卻為顯著正向影響；一般消費者的恐慌在疫情潛伏期對房價為顯著負向影響，在疫情爆發期對房價卻為顯著正向影響；房市消費者的恐慌對交易量為顯著負向影響；媒體報導相關指數對房價為顯著正向影響；政府遏止與健康指數在全期對房價與交易量為負向影響，但在疫情爆發期對房價為顯著正向影響；政府經濟支持對房價為顯著正向影響；政府的房市調控政策對房價與交易量為顯著負向影響。 本研究旨在期許日後若發生類似疫情的事件時，政府可藉由經濟支持與管制政策的相互調節，央行可評估在寬鬆貨幣經濟情況下對房市的調控政策是否能確實抑制投機炒作，建商可依此事件探討住宅的需求變化，並提供與市場需求相應之住宅商品，投資人及購屋者也可藉此審時度勢，避免因恐慌而做出不理性之決策，以上，期望能憑藉經驗相似性穩定台灣的房地產市場。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) Since early 2020, the world has suffered from the pandemic “COVID-19”, which has influenced the economy and the real estate markets globally. Thus, this study investigates the impact of various factors on housing prices and transaction volumes in Taiwan during the COVID-19 pandemic. The examined factors include severity of the epidemic, panic, media coverage, government responses to the pandemic, and government control policies on housing markets. This study uses Google Trends Search Volume Index to construct panic indices, the Oxford Covid-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) to measure government's responses, and RavenPack Coronavirus Monitor Data to measure media reports. The sample period includes both the pandemic year and the preceding year (from January 2019 to December 2023), divided into the preceding, the whole, the latency, the outbreak, and the decline stage according to the severity of the epidemic. The empirical results show that the number of confirmed cases has a negative impact on housing prices, but a positive impact on transaction volumes. General consumer panic has a significant negative impact on housing prices during the latency stage. Real estate consumer panic has a significant negative impact on transaction volumes. Media-related indices have a significant positive impact on housing prices. Government containment and health index has a significant impact on both housing prices and transaction volumes during the whole stage, but has a significant positive impact on housing prices during the ourbreak stage. Government economic support index has a significant positive impact on housing prices. Government’s housing market control policies have a significant negative impact on both housing prices and transaction volumes. This study aims to provide a reference for similar events in the future. The government can strike a balance between economic support and regulatory policies. The central bank can assess whether housing market control policies can effectively curb speculative activities in the real estate market. Property developers can provide housing products which align with market demand. Investors and homebuyers can avoid panic and make rational decisions. Overall, the goal is to stabilize Taiwan’s real estate market based on past experiences. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究背景與動機 1 第二節 研究問題與目的 4 第三節 研究流程 5 第二章 文獻回顧 6 第一節 COVID-19疫情發展與現況 6 第二節 COVID-19疫情對房市的影響 8 第三節 疫情關注、媒體報導與恐慌對房市的影響 11 第四節 政府政策對房市的影響 14 第三章 研究方法 18 第一節 研究假說 18 第二節 Google Trends介紹與恐慌指數建構 20 第三節 研究方法與模型 22 第四節 變數定義與資料來源 28 第四章 資料與實證研究 36 第一節 樣本資料與分析 36 第二節 疫情對房價的影響 42 第三節 疫情對房屋交易量的影響 55 第五章 結論與建議 64 第一節 研究結論 64 第二節 研究限制與建議 67 參考文獻 68 zh_TW dc.format.extent 2916281 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111357013 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 新冠肺炎 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 疫情 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 恐慌 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 媒體報導 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 政府因應 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 房市 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) COVID-19 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Pandemic en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Panic en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Media coverage en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Government response en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Real estate market en_US dc.title (題名) 新冠肺炎期間房市變化之分析 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The Analysis of Changes in Real Estate Market during the COVID-19 pandemic en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、中文文獻 中央銀行. 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