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題名 政策不確定性對房市之影響：文字探勘法
Application of Text Mining: the Impact of Policy Uncertainty on the Real Estate Market
作者 嚴揚宇
Yan, Yang-Yu
貢獻者 陳明吉
嚴揚宇
Yan, Yang-Yu
關鍵詞 房市
政策不確定性
不確定性指數
文字探勘
中介效應
Housing market
Policy uncertainty
Uncertainty index
Text mining
Mediation effect
日期 2024
上傳時間 1-Jul-2024 12:40:58 (UTC+8)
摘要 在不斷更動的政策實施背景下，造成的政策不確定性可能會導致大眾難以判斷當前以及未來的市場形勢。政府可以透過各種政策工具影響房市，包括不動產政策、貨幣政策以及財政政策等，這些政策可以根據政府的目的來影響房市的發展，但當政策方向不明確或頻繁變動時，大眾對市場的預期持保留態度，會對市場參與者的決策產生影響。大眾非常依賴新聞媒體作為資訊來源和判斷參考，這使得購屋者的交易行為容易受到新聞資訊的影響，進而影響房市的變化。因此，本研究構建以新聞內容為基準的台灣政策不確定性指數，並進一步分類為不同面向的政策不確定性指數，以探討不同面向的政策不確定性對房市之影響，同時還分析不同面向的政策不確定性對房價之傳導機制。 本研究透過多元線性迴歸分析探討了不同政策不確定性對房市的影響，發現經濟政策和不動產政策的不確定性會對房價造成負面影響，而貨幣政策不確定性及滯後的財政政策不確定性則對房屋交易量有正面效果。此外，不動產政策的不確定性會增加議價空間，但隨時間推移，不動產政策不確定性及貨幣政策不確定性會對議價空間產生負面影響。同時中介效應分析顯示，不動產政策、貨幣政策以及財政政策的不確定性分別透過影響家戶可支配所得、放款利率以及家戶可支配所得間接影 響房價。
Against the backdrop of constantly changing policy implementation, the resulting policy uncertainty may make it difficult for the public to assess the current and future market conditions. The government can influence the housing market through various policy tools, including real estate policies, monetary policies, and fiscal policies. These policies can impact the development of the housing market based on the government's objectives. When the policy direction is unclear or changes frequently, the public tends to adopt a reserved attitude towards the market, which can influence the decisions of market participants. The public heavily relies on news media as a source of information and reference for judgment, which easily influences the transaction behavior of homebuyers. This, in turn, affects changes in the housing market. Therefore, this study constructs a Taiwan Policy Uncertainty Index based on news content. It further categorizes the index into different aspects of policy uncertainty to explore the impact of these aspects on the housing market. Furthermore, it examines the transmission mechanisms of policy uncertainty on housing prices across various dimensions. This study utilized multiple linear regression analysis to investigate the influence of various policy uncertainties on the housing market. It was found that uncertainties in economic policy and real estate policy have a negative impact on housing prices, while uncertainties in monetary policy and delayed uncertainties in fiscal policy have a positive effect on housing transaction volume. In addition, uncertainty in real estate policy increases negotiating flexibility. However, over time, uncertainties in real estate policy and monetary policy will have a detrimental effect on negotiating flexibility. Simultaneously, mediation effect analysis reveals that uncertainty in real estate policy, monetary policy, and fiscal policy indirectly affects housing prices through their respective impacts on household disposable income, loan interest rates, and household disposable income.
參考文獻 Al-Thaqeb, S. A., & Algharabali, B. G. (2019). Economic policy uncertainty: A literature review. The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 20, e00133. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeca.2019.e00133 Antonakakis, N., Gupta, R., & André, C. (2015). Dynamic Co-movements between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Housing Market Returns. Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management, 21(1), 53–60. https://doi.org/10.1080/10835547.2015.12089971 Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., & Davis, S. J. (2016). Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), 1593–1636. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw024 Balcilar, M., Gupta, R., & Segnon, M. (2016). The Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty in Predicting U.S. Recessions: A Mixed-frequency Markov-switching Vector Autoregressive Approach. Economics, 10(1). https://doi.org/10.5018/economicsejournal.ja.2016-27 Baron, R. M., & Kenny, D. A. (1986). The moderator–mediator variable distinction in social psychological research: Conceptual, strategic, and statistical considerations. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 51(6), 1173–1182. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.51.6.1173 Bhattacharya, U., Hsu, P.-H., Tian, X., & Xu, Y. (2017). What Affects Innovation More: Policy or Policy Uncertainty? Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 52(5), 1869–1901. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022109017000540 Birger, E., & Hussain, M. (2024). Monetary Policy and the Real Estate Market: Theoretical Framework and Empirical Evidence. Journal of Economic Science Research, 6(2), Article 2. https://ojs.sp.sg/index.php/jesr/article/view/15946 Bloom, N. (2009). The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks. Econometrica, 77(3), 623–685. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA6248 Bourassa, S. C. (1995). The Impacts of Borrowing Constraints on Home-ownership in Australia. Urban Studies, 32(7), 1163–1173. Brogaard, J., & Detzel, A. (2015). The Asset-Pricing Implications of Government Economic Policy Uncertainty. Management Science, 61(1), 3–18. Cevik, S., & Naik, S. (2023). Don’t Look Up: House Prices in Emerging Europe. German Economic Review, 24(4), 411–436. https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2023-0015 Chang, C.-C., Chao, C.-H., & Yeh, J.-H. (2016). The role of buy-side anchoring bias: Evidence from the real estate market. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 38, 34–58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2016.02.008 Chen, S.-S., & Lin, T.-Y. (2022). Revisiting the Link between House Prices and Monetary Policy. The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 22(2), 481–515. https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2021-0099 Christou, C., Cunado, J., Gupta, R., & Hassapis, C. (2017). Economic policy uncertainty and stock market returns in PacificRim countries: Evidence based on a Bayesian panel VAR model. Journal of Multinational Financial Management, 40, 92–102. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mulfin.2017.03.001 Chu, F.-N., Chen, M.-C., Wu, K.-C., (2023). Uncertainty and Housing Market: Market, Economics and Policy, 2023 ASRES-GCRECInternational Conference, The Chinese University of Hong Kong. Çolak, G., Durnev, A., & Qian, Y. (2017). Political Uncertainty and IPO Activity: Evidence from U.S. Gubernatorial Elections. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 52(6), 2523–2564. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022109017000862 Da, Z., Engelberg, J., & Gao, P. (2015). The Sum of All FEARS Investor Sentiment and Asset Prices. The Review of Financial Studies, 28(1), 1–32. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhu072 Dakhlaoui, I., & Aloui, C. (2016). The interactive relationship between the US economic policy uncertainty and BRIC stock markets. International Economics, 146, 141–157. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2015.12.002 Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427–431. https://doi.org/10.2307/2286348 Dolan School of Business, Fairfield University, Zhang, Y., Hansz, J. A., Prombutr, W., College of Business, The University of Texas at Arlington, & College of Business Administration, California State University, Long Beach. (2022). Economic Policy Uncertainty and Real Estate Market: Evidence from U.S. REITs. International Real Estate Review, 25(1), 55–87.https://doi.org/10.53383/100335 Fernández-Villaverde, J., Guerrón-Quintana, P., Kuester, K., & Rubio-Ramírez, J. (2015a). Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity. American Economic Review, 105(11), 613352–3384. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20121236 朱芳妮、楊茜文、蘇子涵、陳明吉（2020）。情緒會影響房市嗎？指數編制與驗證。住宅學報，29（2），35-68。 江淑玲、蔡明憲、張金鶚（2011）。台北市中古屋價格與法拍屋拍定價格非對稱價格調整行為之研究。管理與系統，18(2)，317-340。 https://www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Detail?DocID=10239863-201104-201107190027-201107190027-317-340 江穎慧、朱智揚、張金鶚（2019）。預售屋大量估價模型之建立。住宅學報，28(2)，17-36。https://www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Detail?DocID=16660040-201912-202001070016-202001070016-17-36 吳碧珠（2021）。實價登錄制度實施對房價議價率之影響。國立高雄師範大學事業經營學系碩士論文，高雄市。 李志祥（1995）。容積管制、住宅品質與住宅價格關係研究-兼論土地變更回饋。淡江大學建築研究所碩士論文，臺北市。 林左裕、博聖元（2015）。住宅市場處置效應之研究。都市與計劃，2， 273-294。https://doi.org/10.6128/CP.42.3.273 林純如（2017）。資訊揭露對房價影響分析─以實價登錄制度爲例。國立臺北大學不動產與城鄉環境學系碩士論文，臺北市。 俞欣榮（2009）。租稅競爭在移轉訂價規範下的相關研究。國立清華大學碩士經濟學系論文。新竹市。https://doi.org/10.6843/NTHU.2009.00597 陳柏如（2018）。總體審慎政策工具與臺灣房價的關係－特定目標信用工具與房市相關租稅工具的影響。經濟研究，54(2)，287-330。 https://www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Detail?DocID=10181245-201807-201808310014-201808310014-287-330 陳英楠、莫東翠、唐思華、李慧慧 （2022）。測量中國房地產政策不確定性研究。經濟學（季刊），22(2)。 https://doi.org/10.13821/j.cnki.ceq.2022.02.03 彭建文（2012）。 擁屋相對成本對住宅租擁選擇之影響。都市與計劃，39 (1)，1-23。https://doi.org/10.6128/CP.39.1.1 黃裕烈、葉錦徽、陳重吉（2019）。台灣經濟政策不確定性指標之建構與分析。經濟論文叢刊，49(2)，307-334。 https://doi.org/10.6277/TER.202106_49(3).0004 黃裕烈、管中閔（2018）。美國聯準會會議紀要的文字探勘與台灣經濟變數預測。經濟論文叢刊，47(3)，363-391。 https://doi.org/10.6277/TER.201909_47(3).0002 楊屯山、林哲群、張金鶚（2022）。總體審慎措施對房地產價量變化的影響。住宅學報，31(2)，29-62。https://www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Detail?DocID=16660040- N202301100012-00002 齊政霞、王旭（2010）。期房價格對現房價格影響的研究—以雲南省房地產為例。中國城市經濟，10，94-95。 謝博明、黃于禎（2021）。從家戶租屋需求觀點探討台灣租金補貼與租賃住宅政策。公共事務評論，19(2)，1-24。 https://www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Detail?DocID=16089456-202103-202103260010-202103260010-1-24 蘇曉瑞（2021）。 社會住宅供給對房價與地方消費之影響。國立政治大學地政學系博士論文，臺北市
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財務管理學系
111357041
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111357041
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 陳明吉zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 嚴揚宇zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Yan, Yang-Yuen_US
dc.creator (作者) 嚴揚宇zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Yan, Yang-Yuen_US
dc.date (日期) 2024en_US
dc.date.accessioned 1-Jul-2024 12:40:58 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 1-Jul-2024 12:40:58 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 1-Jul-2024 12:40:58 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0111357041en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/152073-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 財務管理學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 111357041zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 在不斷更動的政策實施背景下，造成的政策不確定性可能會導致大眾難以判斷當前以及未來的市場形勢。政府可以透過各種政策工具影響房市，包括不動產政策、貨幣政策以及財政政策等，這些政策可以根據政府的目的來影響房市的發展，但當政策方向不明確或頻繁變動時，大眾對市場的預期持保留態度，會對市場參與者的決策產生影響。大眾非常依賴新聞媒體作為資訊來源和判斷參考，這使得購屋者的交易行為容易受到新聞資訊的影響，進而影響房市的變化。因此，本研究構建以新聞內容為基準的台灣政策不確定性指數，並進一步分類為不同面向的政策不確定性指數，以探討不同面向的政策不確定性對房市之影響，同時還分析不同面向的政策不確定性對房價之傳導機制。 本研究透過多元線性迴歸分析探討了不同政策不確定性對房市的影響，發現經濟政策和不動產政策的不確定性會對房價造成負面影響，而貨幣政策不確定性及滯後的財政政策不確定性則對房屋交易量有正面效果。此外，不動產政策的不確定性會增加議價空間，但隨時間推移，不動產政策不確定性及貨幣政策不確定性會對議價空間產生負面影響。同時中介效應分析顯示，不動產政策、貨幣政策以及財政政策的不確定性分別透過影響家戶可支配所得、放款利率以及家戶可支配所得間接影 響房價。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Against the backdrop of constantly changing policy implementation, the resulting policy uncertainty may make it difficult for the public to assess the current and future market conditions. The government can influence the housing market through various policy tools, including real estate policies, monetary policies, and fiscal policies. These policies can impact the development of the housing market based on the government's objectives. When the policy direction is unclear or changes frequently, the public tends to adopt a reserved attitude towards the market, which can influence the decisions of market participants. The public heavily relies on news media as a source of information and reference for judgment, which easily influences the transaction behavior of homebuyers. This, in turn, affects changes in the housing market. Therefore, this study constructs a Taiwan Policy Uncertainty Index based on news content. It further categorizes the index into different aspects of policy uncertainty to explore the impact of these aspects on the housing market. Furthermore, it examines the transmission mechanisms of policy uncertainty on housing prices across various dimensions. This study utilized multiple linear regression analysis to investigate the influence of various policy uncertainties on the housing market. It was found that uncertainties in economic policy and real estate policy have a negative impact on housing prices, while uncertainties in monetary policy and delayed uncertainties in fiscal policy have a positive effect on housing transaction volume. In addition, uncertainty in real estate policy increases negotiating flexibility. However, over time, uncertainties in real estate policy and monetary policy will have a detrimental effect on negotiating flexibility. Simultaneously, mediation effect analysis reveals that uncertainty in real estate policy, monetary policy, and fiscal policy indirectly affects housing prices through their respective impacts on household disposable income, loan interest rates, and household disposable income.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論1 第一節 研究背景與動機1 第二節 研究問題與目的5 第三節 研究流程6 第二章 文獻回顧7 第一節 政策不確定性對資本市場的影響7 第二節 政策不確定性指標的編制 10 第三節 政策對房價的傳導機制12 第三章 研究設計18 第一節 政策不確定性指數關鍵詞之選取18 第二節 政策不確定性指數之建構方法24 第三節 研究模型與方法26 第四節 變數定義與說明31 第四章 資料與實證研究 37 第一節 樣本資料分析 37 第二節 政策不確定性對房市之影響 45 第三節 政策不確定性對房價之中介效應分析50 第五章 結論與建議56 第一節 結論56 第二節 建議58 參考文獻 59zh_TW
dc.format.extent 1357460 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111357041en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 房市zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 政策不確定性zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 不確定性指數zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 文字探勘zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 中介效應zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Housing marketen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Policy uncertaintyen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Uncertainty indexen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Text miningen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Mediation effecten_US
dc.title (題名) 政策不確定性對房市之影響：文字探勘法zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Application of Text Mining: the Impact of Policy Uncertainty on the Real Estate Marketen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Al-Thaqeb, S. A., & Algharabali, B. G. (2019). Economic policy uncertainty: A literature review. The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 20, e00133. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeca.2019.e00133 Antonakakis, N., Gupta, R., & André, C. (2015). Dynamic Co-movements between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Housing Market Returns. Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management, 21(1), 53–60. https://doi.org/10.1080/10835547.2015.12089971 Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., & Davis, S. J. (2016). Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), 1593–1636. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw024 Balcilar, M., Gupta, R., & Segnon, M. (2016). The Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty in Predicting U.S. Recessions: A Mixed-frequency Markov-switching Vector Autoregressive Approach. Economics, 10(1). https://doi.org/10.5018/economicsejournal.ja.2016-27 Baron, R. M., & Kenny, D. A. (1986). The moderator–mediator variable distinction in social psychological research: Conceptual, strategic, and statistical considerations. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 51(6), 1173–1182. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.51.6.1173 Bhattacharya, U., Hsu, P.-H., Tian, X., & Xu, Y. (2017). What Affects Innovation More: Policy or Policy Uncertainty? Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 52(5), 1869–1901. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022109017000540 Birger, E., & Hussain, M. (2024). Monetary Policy and the Real Estate Market: Theoretical Framework and Empirical Evidence. Journal of Economic Science Research, 6(2), Article 2. https://ojs.sp.sg/index.php/jesr/article/view/15946 Bloom, N. (2009). The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks. Econometrica, 77(3), 623–685. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA6248 Bourassa, S. C. (1995). The Impacts of Borrowing Constraints on Home-ownership in Australia. Urban Studies, 32(7), 1163–1173. Brogaard, J., & Detzel, A. (2015). The Asset-Pricing Implications of Government Economic Policy Uncertainty. Management Science, 61(1), 3–18. Cevik, S., & Naik, S. (2023). Don’t Look Up: House Prices in Emerging Europe. German Economic Review, 24(4), 411–436. https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2023-0015 Chang, C.-C., Chao, C.-H., & Yeh, J.-H. (2016). The role of buy-side anchoring bias: Evidence from the real estate market. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 38, 34–58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2016.02.008 Chen, S.-S., & Lin, T.-Y. (2022). Revisiting the Link between House Prices and Monetary Policy. The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 22(2), 481–515. https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2021-0099 Christou, C., Cunado, J., Gupta, R., & Hassapis, C. (2017). Economic policy uncertainty and stock market returns in PacificRim countries: Evidence based on a Bayesian panel VAR model. Journal of Multinational Financial Management, 40, 92–102. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mulfin.2017.03.001 Chu, F.-N., Chen, M.-C., Wu, K.-C., (2023). Uncertainty and Housing Market: Market, Economics and Policy, 2023 ASRES-GCRECInternational Conference, The Chinese University of Hong Kong. Çolak, G., Durnev, A., & Qian, Y. (2017). Political Uncertainty and IPO Activity: Evidence from U.S. Gubernatorial Elections. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 52(6), 2523–2564. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022109017000862 Da, Z., Engelberg, J., & Gao, P. (2015). The Sum of All FEARS Investor Sentiment and Asset Prices. The Review of Financial Studies, 28(1), 1–32. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhu072 Dakhlaoui, I., & Aloui, C. (2016). The interactive relationship between the US economic policy uncertainty and BRIC stock markets. International Economics, 146, 141–157. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2015.12.002 Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427–431. https://doi.org/10.2307/2286348 Dolan School of Business, Fairfield University, Zhang, Y., Hansz, J. A., Prombutr, W., College of Business, The University of Texas at Arlington, & College of Business Administration, California State University, Long Beach. (2022). Economic Policy Uncertainty and Real Estate Market: Evidence from U.S. REITs. International Real Estate Review, 25(1), 55–87.https://doi.org/10.53383/100335 Fernández-Villaverde, J., Guerrón-Quintana, P., Kuester, K., & Rubio-Ramírez, J. (2015a). Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity. 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