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題名 以系統動力學探討碳稅對住宅價格之影響—以臺北市為例
Exploring the Impact of Carbon Taxes on Housing Prices by System Dynamics— A Case Study of Taipei City作者 葉展華
Yeh, Chang-Hua貢獻者 林左裕
葉展華
Yeh, Chang-Hua關鍵詞 碳稅
住宅價格
系統動力學
政策模擬
Carbon Tax
Housing Prices
System Dynamics
Policy Simulation日期 2024 上傳時間 5-八月-2024 14:16:42 (UTC+8) 摘要 因應全球氣候變遷，減少溫室氣體排放量，並避免未來因碳關稅而需承擔高額成本，臺灣預計於2025年開始收取首波碳稅。為達到有效碳稅稅率同時避免高過稅率造成經濟衝擊，本研究透過系統動力學模型，綜合考慮臺北市住宅市場之供給、需求以及金融經濟等因素，模擬不同稅率及稅率累進模式下，碳稅對臺北市住宅價格可能造成之影響。 透過固定稅率模擬可得知，碳稅稅率與住宅價格增長趨勢間呈正相關係，且房價增長幅度隨時間推移越發顯著，但不同稅率間對住宅價格漲幅之影響並非呈線性關係，而是呈現出基於成本轉嫁理論的些微S形曲線態勢。藉由三種累進稅率模式以及本研究設定之碳稅稅率模後擬，本研究建議在設計碳稅稅率時，可採用後期加速之累進稅率模式，除了能夠達到國際認可之稅率外，亦不至於過度衝擊住宅價格。 經過本研究模擬指出，碳稅並非導致臺北市住宅價格上漲之主要因素。我國碳稅稅率尚未確立，本研究建議政府在制定碳稅政策時，應詳細規劃稅率走勢，並輔以完善之配套措施，以確保政策能順利推動並提升社會福祉。
To cope with global climate change, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and to avoid the high cost of carbon tariffs in the future, Taiwan is expected to launch the carbon tax in 2025. In order to achieve an effective carbon tax rate while avoiding the economic impacts caused by an excessive tax rate, this study employs the System Dynamics model to simulates the possible impacts of carbon tax on housing prices in Taipei under different tax rates and progressive tax rate models. The supply, demand, financial and economic factors of the housing market in Taipei City are also considered. Results of the Fixed-rate simulation show that there is a positive relationship between carbon tax rates and the trend in housing price growth, and that the increase in housing price growth has become more significant over time. However, the effect of different tax rates on housing price increases is not linear. It shows a slight S-shaped curve based on the cost pass-through theory. Based on the three different progressive tax rate models and the simulation of carbon tax rate in this study, the late accelerated indicator progressive tax model can be suggested and used in the carbon tax rate design. Therefore, the tax rate can be internationally recognized, and the housing price will not be impacted excessively. The simulation of this study shows that the carbon tax is not the main factor leading to the increase of housing prices in Taipei City. Since the carbon tax rate in Taiwan has not yet been established, this study suggests that when a carbon tax policy is developed, the government should conduct detailed planning for the trend of the tax rate and supplement it with comprehensive supporting measure to ensure the smooth implementation of the policy and to enhance the welfare of the society.參考文獻 中文文獻 吳森田，1994，「所得、貨幣與房價－近二十年台北地區的觀察」，『住宅學報』，(2)：49-65。 吳閔翰、石豐宇，2021，「應用系統動態學模擬高速鐵路新竹車站地區都市發展」，『都市與計劃』，48(4)：407-434。 林素菁、林祖嘉，2001，「台灣地區住宅供給彈性之估計」，『住宅學報』,，10(1)：17-27。 邱桂珍，2022，「以系統動態模型萃取影響高雄市房價因素」，『全球管理與經濟』，18(1)：63-82。 張金鶚、林秋瑾，1997，「臺灣地區房地產景氣指標電腦輔助系統之建立與應用」，內政部建築研究所。 陳幸宜，2003，「都市房價變動影響因素之系統動態模擬—台北市之實證研究」（未出版碩士論文），國立成功大學都市計畫研究所，台南市。 陶在樸，1999，『系統動態學』初版，臺北市，五南出版社。 楊朝仲、張良正、葉欣誠、陳昶憲、葉昭憲，2007，『系統動力學—思維與應用』初版，臺北市：五南圖書。 謝長宏，1980，『系統動態學—理論、方法與應用』，臺北市：中興管理顧問公司。 藍俊雄、胡純英，2009，「動態住宅交易市場之研究」，『科學與工程技術期刊』，5(1)：57-70。 魏文欽、郭宗諭，2012，「影響房價變動因素之系統動態模擬（兼論奢侈稅）」，『International Journal of Lisrel』，5(1)：31-49。 蘇懋康，1988，『系统動力學原理及應用』，上海市：上海交通大學出版社。 英文文獻 Ali, G. 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國立政治大學
地政學系
111257029資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111257029 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 林左裕 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (作者) 葉展華 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (作者) Yeh, Chang-Hua en_US dc.creator (作者) 葉展華 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Yeh, Chang-Hua en_US dc.date (日期) 2024 en_US dc.date.accessioned 5-八月-2024 14:16:42 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 5-八月-2024 14:16:42 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 5-八月-2024 14:16:42 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) G0111257029 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/152834 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 地政學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 111257029 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 因應全球氣候變遷，減少溫室氣體排放量，並避免未來因碳關稅而需承擔高額成本，臺灣預計於2025年開始收取首波碳稅。為達到有效碳稅稅率同時避免高過稅率造成經濟衝擊，本研究透過系統動力學模型，綜合考慮臺北市住宅市場之供給、需求以及金融經濟等因素，模擬不同稅率及稅率累進模式下，碳稅對臺北市住宅價格可能造成之影響。 透過固定稅率模擬可得知，碳稅稅率與住宅價格增長趨勢間呈正相關係，且房價增長幅度隨時間推移越發顯著，但不同稅率間對住宅價格漲幅之影響並非呈線性關係，而是呈現出基於成本轉嫁理論的些微S形曲線態勢。藉由三種累進稅率模式以及本研究設定之碳稅稅率模後擬，本研究建議在設計碳稅稅率時，可採用後期加速之累進稅率模式，除了能夠達到國際認可之稅率外，亦不至於過度衝擊住宅價格。 經過本研究模擬指出，碳稅並非導致臺北市住宅價格上漲之主要因素。我國碳稅稅率尚未確立，本研究建議政府在制定碳稅政策時，應詳細規劃稅率走勢，並輔以完善之配套措施，以確保政策能順利推動並提升社會福祉。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) To cope with global climate change, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and to avoid the high cost of carbon tariffs in the future, Taiwan is expected to launch the carbon tax in 2025. In order to achieve an effective carbon tax rate while avoiding the economic impacts caused by an excessive tax rate, this study employs the System Dynamics model to simulates the possible impacts of carbon tax on housing prices in Taipei under different tax rates and progressive tax rate models. The supply, demand, financial and economic factors of the housing market in Taipei City are also considered. Results of the Fixed-rate simulation show that there is a positive relationship between carbon tax rates and the trend in housing price growth, and that the increase in housing price growth has become more significant over time. However, the effect of different tax rates on housing price increases is not linear. It shows a slight S-shaped curve based on the cost pass-through theory. Based on the three different progressive tax rate models and the simulation of carbon tax rate in this study, the late accelerated indicator progressive tax model can be suggested and used in the carbon tax rate design. Therefore, the tax rate can be internationally recognized, and the housing price will not be impacted excessively. The simulation of this study shows that the carbon tax is not the main factor leading to the increase of housing prices in Taipei City. Since the carbon tax rate in Taiwan has not yet been established, this study suggests that when a carbon tax policy is developed, the government should conduct detailed planning for the trend of the tax rate and supplement it with comprehensive supporting measure to ensure the smooth implementation of the policy and to enhance the welfare of the society. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究動機與目的 1 第二節 研究範圍與方法 5 第三節 研究架構與流程 7 第二章 文獻回顧 9 第一節 碳稅政策及影響 9 第二節 系統動力學於不動產研究之應用 18 第三節 影響住宅價格之因素 27 第三章 研究設計 33 第一節 系統動力學 33 第二節 住宅系統範圍界定 37 第四章 模擬結果與分析 39 第一節 臺北市住宅系統動力學模型 39 第二節 模型校驗 56 第三節 碳稅政策模擬 67 第五章 結論與建議 81 第一節 結論 81 第二節 政策建議 83 第三節 後續研究建議 85 參考文獻 86 附錄 93 zh_TW dc.format.extent 4576034 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111257029 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 碳稅 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 住宅價格 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 系統動力學 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 政策模擬 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Carbon Tax en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Housing Prices en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) System Dynamics en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Policy Simulation en_US dc.title (題名) 以系統動力學探討碳稅對住宅價格之影響—以臺北市為例 zh_TW dc.title (題名) Exploring the Impact of Carbon Taxes on Housing Prices by System Dynamics— A Case Study of Taipei City en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中文文獻 吳森田，1994，「所得、貨幣與房價－近二十年台北地區的觀察」，『住宅學報』，(2)：49-65。 吳閔翰、石豐宇，2021，「應用系統動態學模擬高速鐵路新竹車站地區都市發展」，『都市與計劃』，48(4)：407-434。 林素菁、林祖嘉，2001，「台灣地區住宅供給彈性之估計」，『住宅學報』,，10(1)：17-27。 邱桂珍，2022，「以系統動態模型萃取影響高雄市房價因素」，『全球管理與經濟』，18(1)：63-82。 張金鶚、林秋瑾，1997，「臺灣地區房地產景氣指標電腦輔助系統之建立與應用」，內政部建築研究所。 陳幸宜，2003，「都市房價變動影響因素之系統動態模擬—台北市之實證研究」（未出版碩士論文），國立成功大學都市計畫研究所，台南市。 陶在樸，1999，『系統動態學』初版，臺北市，五南出版社。 楊朝仲、張良正、葉欣誠、陳昶憲、葉昭憲，2007，『系統動力學—思維與應用』初版，臺北市：五南圖書。 謝長宏，1980，『系統動態學—理論、方法與應用』，臺北市：中興管理顧問公司。 藍俊雄、胡純英，2009，「動態住宅交易市場之研究」，『科學與工程技術期刊』，5(1)：57-70。 魏文欽、郭宗諭，2012，「影響房價變動因素之系統動態模擬（兼論奢侈稅）」，『International Journal of Lisrel』，5(1)：31-49。 蘇懋康，1988，『系统動力學原理及應用』，上海市：上海交通大學出版社。 英文文獻 Ali, G. 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