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題名 股票財富變動對退休行為的影響
The Effect of Stock Wealth on Retirement作者 廖文儀
Liao, Wen-Yi貢獻者 羅光達<br>韓幸紋
Lo, Kuang-Ta<br>Han, Hsing-Wen
廖文儀
Liao, Wen-Yi關鍵詞 股票財富變動
退休年齡
金融危機
工具變數
Changes in stock wealth
Retirement age
Financial crisis
Instrumental variable日期 2024 上傳時間 5-八月-2024 14:44:11 (UTC+8) 摘要 本文利用2008年金融危機所提供的股市外生衝擊作為準實驗，探討股票財富變動對個人退休年齡的影響。與過去文獻不同，我們使用2004年至2022年的財稅行政資料，追蹤中高齡勞動者長期的勞動市場參與情形，另外，考慮股票投資與退休決策互相影響產生的內生性問題，本文以工具變數兩階段最小平方法估計股票財富變動之效果。 研究結果顯示，股票財富減少1百萬元會使中高齡勞動者平均多工作22天，而年齡愈大的勞工愈容易受到股票財富變動而改變其退休規劃，但整體而言股票財富變動對退休時點的影響微乎其微。此外，根據不同的個人特性，本研究發現男性較容易受到股票財富下跌的影響而延後退休，且單身男性最為容易受到影響；有小孩的勞動者較不容易因股票財富波動而改變退休決策；擁有較多非股票財富的個人較能抵抗股票財富下跌所造成的延後退休效果；未發現低勞動所得者會因股票財富波動而改變退休時點，但高勞動所得者明顯會因股票財富減少而延後退休。最後，本文透過調整樣本篩選門檻與替換工具變數檢驗前述估計效果，發現結果相當穩健，股票財富並不如預期般對個人退休行為有深刻的影響。
This paper estimates the effect of changes in stock wealth on retirement age by using the 2008 financial crisis as a quasi-experiment. Different from previous literature, we utilize fiscal administrative data from 2004 to 2022 to track the long-term labor market participation of middle-aged and elderly workers. To address endogeneity bias, this study uses the two-stage least squares method to estimate the causal effect of changes in individuals’ stock wealth on retirement decisions. Our results indicate that a 1 million NTD decrease in stock wealth would postpone workers’ retirement by 22 days on average. Furthermore, older workers are more sensitive to stock wealth changes. However, overall, the effect of stock wealth fluctuations on the timing of retirement is minimal. In addition, we find that the effect varies across individual characteristics: men, especially single men, are more likely to postpone retirement due to stock losses. Workers with children and those with substantial non-stock assets are less likely to alter their retirement plans in response to stock wealth fluctuations. High-income earners tend to postpone retirement when stock wealth decreases, while low-income earners show no such trend. Lastly, we test the robustness by adjusting the sample selection thresholds and replacing the instrumental variable, and we find that the results are quite robust. These findings suggest that stock wealth does not have as profound an impact on individual retirement behavior as expected.參考文獻 一、中文文獻 江淳芳、王俞媗（2018），「工具變數法在經濟學與會計學的應用」，《會計審計論叢》，8（1），15－28。 張逸芩（2023），《勞工保險老年給付薪資調整誘因與2009年年金化之影響》，碩士論文，國立政治大學財政學研究所。 連賢明、曾中信、楊子霆、韓幸紋、羅光達（2021），「臺灣財富分配2004－2014：以個人財產登錄資料推估」，《經濟論文叢刊》，49（1），77－130。 陳韋安（2017），《公司有效稅率對員工薪資之影響—以2010稅改為例》，碩士論文，國立政治大學財政學研究所。 謝依純（2012），「影響台灣中高齡者退休年齡之因素」，《台灣老年學論壇》，14，1－13。 羅詠傑（2020），《以財產登錄資料推估臺灣營利事業財富》，碩士論文，國立政治大學財政學研究所。 二、英文文獻 Acemoglu, D., S. Johnson and J. A. Robinson (2001), “The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation,” American Economic Review, 91(5), 1369-1401. Ando, A. and F. Modigliani (1963), “The ‘Life Cycle’ Hypothesis of Saving: Aggregate Implications and Tests,” American Economic Review, 53(1), 55-84. Angrisani, M., M. D. Hurd, E. Meijer, A. M. Parker and S. Rohwedder (2013), “Labor Force Transitions at Older Ages: The Roles of Work Environment and Personality,” Michigan Retirement Research Center Research Paper No. 2013-295. Angrist, J. (1990), “Lifetime Earnings and the Vietnam-Era Draft Lottery: Evidence from Social Security Administrative Records,” American Economic Review, 80, 313-335. Angrist, J. D. and G. W. Imbens (1995), “Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation of Average Causal Effects in Models with Variable Treatment Intensity,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 90(430), 431-442. Becker, G. (1964), Human Capital, Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Beehr, T. A. and M. M. Bennett (2015), “Working After Retirement: Features of Bridge Employment and Research Directions,” Work, Aging and Retirement, 1(1), 112-128. Bloemen, H. G. (2011), “The Effect of Private Wealth on the Retirement Rate: An Empirical Analysis,” Economica, 78(312), 637-655. Börsch-Supan, A. and C. Coile (2021), “Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: Reforms and Retirement Incentives,” Reforms and Retirement Incentives (pp. 1-42). University of Chicago Press. Coile, C. C. and P. B. Levine (2006), “Bulls, Bears, and Retirement Behavior,” Industrial & Labor Relations Review, 59(3), 408-429. Coronado, J. and M. Perozek (2003), “Wealth Effects and the Consumption of Leisure: Retirement Decisions During the Stock Market Boom of the 1990s,” Finance and Economics Discussion Series (#2003-20), Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Crawford, R. (2013), “The Effect of the Financial Crisis on the Retirement Plans of Older Workers in England,” Economics Letters, 121(2), 156-159. de Wind, A., G. A. Geuskens, J. F. Ybema, B. M. Blatter, A. Burdorf, P. M. Bongers and A. J. van der Beek (2014), “Health, Job Characteristics, Skills, and Social and Financial Factors in Relation to Early Retirement—Results from a Longitudinal Study in the Netherlands,” Scandinavian Journal of Work, Environment & Health, 40(2), 186-194. Denton, F. T. and B. G. Spencer (2009), “What is Retirement? A Review and Assessment of Alternative Concepts and Measures,” Canadian journal on aging, 28(1), 63-76. Finch, N. (201), “Why are Women More Likely than Men to Extend Paid Work? The Impact of Work–Family Life History,” European Journal of Ageing, 11(1), 31-39. Fisher, G. G., D. S. Chaffee, A. Sonnega (2016), “Retirement Timing: A Review and Recommendations for Future Research,” Work, Aging and Retirement, 2(2), 230-261. Goda, G. S., J. B. Shoven and S. N. Slavov (2011), “What Explains Changes in Retirement Plans During the Great Recession?” American Economic Review, 101(3), 29-34. Gustman, A. L. and T. L. Steinmeier (2000), “Retirement in Dual-Career Families: A Structural Model,” Journal of Labor Economics, 18(3), 503-545. Gustman, A. L., T. L. Steinmeier and N. Tabatabai (2012), “How Did the Recession of 2007–2009 Affect the Wealth and Retirement of the Near Retirement Age Population in the Health and Retirement Study?” Social Security Bulletin, 72(4), 47-66. Hanspal, T., A. Weber and J. Wohlfart (2021), “Exposure to the COVID-19 Stock Market Crash and Its Effect on Household Expectations,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 103(5), 994-1010. Heisig, J. P. and J. Radl (2017), “Adding Scars to Wrinkles? Long-Run Effects of Late-Career Job Loss on Retirement Behavior and Personal Income,” Work, Aging and Retirement, 3(3), 257-272. Helppie McFall, B. (2011), “Crash and Wait? The Impact of the Great Recession on the Retirement Plans of Older Americans,” American Economic Review, 101(3), 40-44. Hurd, M. D., M. Reti and S. Rohwedder (2009), “The Effect of Large Capital Gains or Losses on Retirement,” Developments in the Economics of Aging Pages (pp. 127-172). University of Chicago Press. Maestas, N. (2010), “Back to Work: Expectations and Realizations of Work after Retirement,” The Journal of Human Resources, 45(3), 718-748. Munnell, A. H., D. Muldoon, and S. A. Sass (2009), “Recessions and Older Workers,” Issues in Brief No. 9-2. Center for Retirement Research. Picchio, M., S. Suetens and J. C. van Ours (2018), “Labour supply effects of winning a lottery,” The Economic Journal, 128(611), 1700-1729. Poterba, J. M. and A. A. Samwick (1997), "Household Portfolio Allocation Over the Life Cycle," NBER Working Papers 6185. Scholz, J. K., A. Seshadri and S. Khitatrakun (2006), “Are Americans Saving ‘Optimally’ for Retirement?” Journal of Political Economy, 114(4), 607-643. Shultz, K. S. and M. Wang (2011), “Psychological Perspectives on the Changing Nature of Retirement,” American Psychologist, 66(3), 170-179. Siegrist, J., M. Wahrendorf, O. von dem Knesebeck, H. Jurges and A. Borsch-Supan (2007), “Quality of Work, Well-Being, and Intended Early Retirement of Older Employees—Baseline Results from The SHARE Study” The European Journal of Public Health, 17(1), 62-68. Szinovacz, M. E., L. Martin and A. Davey (2014), “Recession and Expected Retirement Age: Another Look at the Evidence,” The Gerontologist, 54(2), 245-257. Tsai, Y. Y., H. W. Han, K. T. Lo and T. T. Yang (2023), “The Effect of Financial Resources on Fertility: Evidence from Administrative Data on Lottery Winners,” IEAS Working Paper No. 22-A007. Yao, R (2005), “Optimal Consumption and Portfolio Choices with Risky Housing and Borrowing Constraints,” The Review of Financial Studies, 18(1), 197-239. Yu, R. R. and M. C. Tsai (2021), “Retirement Timing and Post-retirement Employment in Taiwan,” Retirement and Lifestyle in Aging East Asia (pp. 257-281). Palgrave Macmillan. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財政學系
111255004資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111255004 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 羅光達<br>韓幸紋 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Lo, Kuang-Ta<br>Han, Hsing-Wen en_US dc.contributor.author (作者) 廖文儀 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (作者) Liao, Wen-Yi en_US dc.creator (作者) 廖文儀 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Liao, Wen-Yi en_US dc.date (日期) 2024 en_US dc.date.accessioned 5-八月-2024 14:44:11 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 5-八月-2024 14:44:11 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 5-八月-2024 14:44:11 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) G0111255004 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/152902 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 財政學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 111255004 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本文利用2008年金融危機所提供的股市外生衝擊作為準實驗，探討股票財富變動對個人退休年齡的影響。與過去文獻不同，我們使用2004年至2022年的財稅行政資料，追蹤中高齡勞動者長期的勞動市場參與情形，另外，考慮股票投資與退休決策互相影響產生的內生性問題，本文以工具變數兩階段最小平方法估計股票財富變動之效果。 研究結果顯示，股票財富減少1百萬元會使中高齡勞動者平均多工作22天，而年齡愈大的勞工愈容易受到股票財富變動而改變其退休規劃，但整體而言股票財富變動對退休時點的影響微乎其微。此外，根據不同的個人特性，本研究發現男性較容易受到股票財富下跌的影響而延後退休，且單身男性最為容易受到影響；有小孩的勞動者較不容易因股票財富波動而改變退休決策；擁有較多非股票財富的個人較能抵抗股票財富下跌所造成的延後退休效果；未發現低勞動所得者會因股票財富波動而改變退休時點，但高勞動所得者明顯會因股票財富減少而延後退休。最後，本文透過調整樣本篩選門檻與替換工具變數檢驗前述估計效果，發現結果相當穩健，股票財富並不如預期般對個人退休行為有深刻的影響。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) This paper estimates the effect of changes in stock wealth on retirement age by using the 2008 financial crisis as a quasi-experiment. Different from previous literature, we utilize fiscal administrative data from 2004 to 2022 to track the long-term labor market participation of middle-aged and elderly workers. To address endogeneity bias, this study uses the two-stage least squares method to estimate the causal effect of changes in individuals’ stock wealth on retirement decisions. Our results indicate that a 1 million NTD decrease in stock wealth would postpone workers’ retirement by 22 days on average. Furthermore, older workers are more sensitive to stock wealth changes. However, overall, the effect of stock wealth fluctuations on the timing of retirement is minimal. In addition, we find that the effect varies across individual characteristics: men, especially single men, are more likely to postpone retirement due to stock losses. Workers with children and those with substantial non-stock assets are less likely to alter their retirement plans in response to stock wealth fluctuations. High-income earners tend to postpone retirement when stock wealth decreases, while low-income earners show no such trend. Lastly, we test the robustness by adjusting the sample selection thresholds and replacing the instrumental variable, and we find that the results are quite robust. These findings suggest that stock wealth does not have as profound an impact on individual retirement behavior as expected. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第壹章 緒論 1 第貳章 文獻回顧 7 第一節 退休的定義 7 第二節 退休行為的理論基礎 8 第三節 影響退休之個體因素 9 第四節 股市波動對退休行為的影響 13 第參章 研究方法 17 第一節 資料來源與變數說明 17 第二節 模型設定 21 第三節 樣本篩選 25 第肆章 實證結果 29 第一節 敘述性統計 29 第二節 實證結果 32 第三節 穩健性測試 44 第伍章 結論 47 第一節 結論與建議 47 第二節 研究限制 48 參考文獻 51 zh_TW dc.format.extent 2195467 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111255004 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 股票財富變動 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 退休年齡 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 金融危機 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 工具變數 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Changes in stock wealth en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Retirement age en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Financial crisis en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Instrumental variable en_US dc.title (題名) 股票財富變動對退休行為的影響 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The Effect of Stock Wealth on Retirement en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、中文文獻 江淳芳、王俞媗（2018），「工具變數法在經濟學與會計學的應用」，《會計審計論叢》，8（1），15－28。 張逸芩（2023），《勞工保險老年給付薪資調整誘因與2009年年金化之影響》，碩士論文，國立政治大學財政學研究所。 連賢明、曾中信、楊子霆、韓幸紋、羅光達（2021），「臺灣財富分配2004－2014：以個人財產登錄資料推估」，《經濟論文叢刊》，49（1），77－130。 陳韋安（2017），《公司有效稅率對員工薪資之影響—以2010稅改為例》，碩士論文，國立政治大學財政學研究所。 謝依純（2012），「影響台灣中高齡者退休年齡之因素」，《台灣老年學論壇》，14，1－13。 羅詠傑（2020），《以財產登錄資料推估臺灣營利事業財富》，碩士論文，國立政治大學財政學研究所。 二、英文文獻 Acemoglu, D., S. Johnson and J. A. Robinson (2001), “The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation,” American Economic Review, 91(5), 1369-1401. Ando, A. and F. Modigliani (1963), “The ‘Life Cycle’ Hypothesis of Saving: Aggregate Implications and Tests,” American Economic Review, 53(1), 55-84. Angrisani, M., M. D. Hurd, E. Meijer, A. M. Parker and S. Rohwedder (2013), “Labor Force Transitions at Older Ages: The Roles of Work Environment and Personality,” Michigan Retirement Research Center Research Paper No. 2013-295. Angrist, J. (1990), “Lifetime Earnings and the Vietnam-Era Draft Lottery: Evidence from Social Security Administrative Records,” American Economic Review, 80, 313-335. Angrist, J. D. and G. W. Imbens (1995), “Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation of Average Causal Effects in Models with Variable Treatment Intensity,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 90(430), 431-442. Becker, G. (1964), Human Capital, Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Beehr, T. A. and M. M. Bennett (2015), “Working After Retirement: Features of Bridge Employment and Research Directions,” Work, Aging and Retirement, 1(1), 112-128. Bloemen, H. G. (2011), “The Effect of Private Wealth on the Retirement Rate: An Empirical Analysis,” Economica, 78(312), 637-655. Börsch-Supan, A. and C. Coile (2021), “Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: Reforms and Retirement Incentives,” Reforms and Retirement Incentives (pp. 1-42). University of Chicago Press. Coile, C. C. and P. B. Levine (2006), “Bulls, Bears, and Retirement Behavior,” Industrial & Labor Relations Review, 59(3), 408-429. Coronado, J. and M. Perozek (2003), “Wealth Effects and the Consumption of Leisure: Retirement Decisions During the Stock Market Boom of the 1990s,” Finance and Economics Discussion Series (#2003-20), Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Crawford, R. (2013), “The Effect of the Financial Crisis on the Retirement Plans of Older Workers in England,” Economics Letters, 121(2), 156-159. de Wind, A., G. A. Geuskens, J. F. Ybema, B. M. Blatter, A. Burdorf, P. M. Bongers and A. J. van der Beek (2014), “Health, Job Characteristics, Skills, and Social and Financial Factors in Relation to Early Retirement—Results from a Longitudinal Study in the Netherlands,” Scandinavian Journal of Work, Environment & Health, 40(2), 186-194. Denton, F. T. and B. G. Spencer (2009), “What is Retirement? A Review and Assessment of Alternative Concepts and Measures,” Canadian journal on aging, 28(1), 63-76. Finch, N. (201), “Why are Women More Likely than Men to Extend Paid Work? The Impact of Work–Family Life History,” European Journal of Ageing, 11(1), 31-39. Fisher, G. G., D. S. Chaffee, A. Sonnega (2016), “Retirement Timing: A Review and Recommendations for Future Research,” Work, Aging and Retirement, 2(2), 230-261. Goda, G. S., J. B. Shoven and S. N. Slavov (2011), “What Explains Changes in Retirement Plans During the Great Recession?” American Economic Review, 101(3), 29-34. Gustman, A. L. and T. L. Steinmeier (2000), “Retirement in Dual-Career Families: A Structural Model,” Journal of Labor Economics, 18(3), 503-545. Gustman, A. L., T. L. Steinmeier and N. Tabatabai (2012), “How Did the Recession of 2007–2009 Affect the Wealth and Retirement of the Near Retirement Age Population in the Health and Retirement Study?” Social Security Bulletin, 72(4), 47-66. Hanspal, T., A. Weber and J. Wohlfart (2021), “Exposure to the COVID-19 Stock Market Crash and Its Effect on Household Expectations,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 103(5), 994-1010. Heisig, J. P. and J. Radl (2017), “Adding Scars to Wrinkles? Long-Run Effects of Late-Career Job Loss on Retirement Behavior and Personal Income,” Work, Aging and Retirement, 3(3), 257-272. Helppie McFall, B. (2011), “Crash and Wait? The Impact of the Great Recession on the Retirement Plans of Older Americans,” American Economic Review, 101(3), 40-44. Hurd, M. D., M. Reti and S. Rohwedder (2009), “The Effect of Large Capital Gains or Losses on Retirement,” Developments in the Economics of Aging Pages (pp. 127-172). University of Chicago Press. Maestas, N. (2010), “Back to Work: Expectations and Realizations of Work after Retirement,” The Journal of Human Resources, 45(3), 718-748. Munnell, A. H., D. Muldoon, and S. A. Sass (2009), “Recessions and Older Workers,” Issues in Brief No. 9-2. Center for Retirement Research. Picchio, M., S. Suetens and J. C. van Ours (2018), “Labour supply effects of winning a lottery,” The Economic Journal, 128(611), 1700-1729. Poterba, J. M. and A. A. Samwick (1997), "Household Portfolio Allocation Over the Life Cycle," NBER Working Papers 6185. Scholz, J. K., A. Seshadri and S. Khitatrakun (2006), “Are Americans Saving ‘Optimally’ for Retirement?” Journal of Political Economy, 114(4), 607-643. Shultz, K. S. and M. Wang (2011), “Psychological Perspectives on the Changing Nature of Retirement,” American Psychologist, 66(3), 170-179. Siegrist, J., M. Wahrendorf, O. von dem Knesebeck, H. Jurges and A. Borsch-Supan (2007), “Quality of Work, Well-Being, and Intended Early Retirement of Older Employees—Baseline Results from The SHARE Study” The European Journal of Public Health, 17(1), 62-68. Szinovacz, M. E., L. Martin and A. Davey (2014), “Recession and Expected Retirement Age: Another Look at the Evidence,” The Gerontologist, 54(2), 245-257. Tsai, Y. Y., H. W. Han, K. T. Lo and T. T. Yang (2023), “The Effect of Financial Resources on Fertility: Evidence from Administrative Data on Lottery Winners,” IEAS Working Paper No. 22-A007. Yao, R (2005), “Optimal Consumption and Portfolio Choices with Risky Housing and Borrowing Constraints,” The Review of Financial Studies, 18(1), 197-239. Yu, R. R. and M. C. Tsai (2021), “Retirement Timing and Post-retirement Employment in Taiwan,” Retirement and Lifestyle in Aging East Asia (pp. 257-281). Palgrave Macmillan. zh_TW
