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題名 歐盟租稅協定對臺灣貿易指標影響之實證研究
An Empirical Study on the Impact of the European Union Tax Treaty on Trade Indicators of Taiwan作者 簡劭恩
Chien, Shao-En貢獻者 吳文傑
Wu, Wen-Chieh
簡劭恩
Chien, Shao-En關鍵詞 租稅協定
貿易指標
主要出口貨物
歐盟
Tax treaty
Trade indicators
Major exports
European Union日期 2024 上傳時間 5-Aug-2024 14:44:46 (UTC+8) 摘要 本文旨在研究影響臺灣貿易指標與主要出口貨物出口額的因素，其中特別著重於分析租稅協定的影響，使用歐盟27個國家在西元1998年至2022年的追蹤資料進行研究，探討各項因素對於貿易指標與主要出口貨物出口額之效果。 本文將租稅協定對於貿易指標的影響分為正向的貿易交流促進效果、投資出口促進效果，以及負向的資訊交換排擠效果、投資出口排擠效果，最終影響效果會因四種效果的相對大小而有所差異，以致於租稅協定對於貿易指標及主要出口貨物出口額的效果會因國家或地區而有不同結果。 實證結果中可以發現，GDP落後期、外國對臺投資額、臺灣對外投資額對貿易指標與主要出口貨物出口額為正向影響，為貿易促進因子。貿易指標方面，最小平方法模型中，無論有無加入區域或時間控制變數，租稅協定對貿易指標均為正向顯著影響；隨機效果以及一元固定效果模型中，租稅協定對貿易指標均為正向影響，但結果轉變為不顯著，因此租稅協定帶來的總正向效果大於總負向效果，簽訂租稅協定有助於雙邊貿易的增加，最後本篇將歐盟國家分為不同區域進行迴歸分析，發現租稅協定對於不同區域的效果並不相同。 主要出口貨物方面，在普通最小平方法模型與加入時間控制變數後，租稅協定對三種主要貨物的出口額均為正向顯著影響；加入區域控制變數與隨機效果模型中，租稅協定仍對我國積體電路類產品的出口為正向顯著影響，對我國電腦機器相關產品、電腦零件及其附件產品的出口則轉為不顯著；固定效果模型中，租稅協定對我國電腦零件及其附件產品的出口又轉為正向顯著，顯示此部分租稅協定帶來的總正向效果仍大於總負向效果，簽訂租稅協定能有效提升大部分主要出口貨物之出口額，最後將歐盟分為不同區域與國家進行個別分析，發現租稅協定效果正負不一，呼應了簽訂租稅協定影響效果不一的論點。
The aim of this paper is to study the factors affecting the trade indicators and the export value of Taiwanese major exports, with a particular focus on analyzing the impact of the tax treaty. The research is conducted using panel data of 27 European Union (EU) countries from 1998 to 2022. This study examines the effects of various factors on the trade indicators and the export value of major exports. In this paper, the effects of tax treaty on trade indicators are categorized into positive trade-exchange-enhancing effects, investment-export-enhancing effects, and negative information-exchange crowding-out effects, investment-export crowding-out effects, and the final effects vary according to the relative sizes of these three effects. The effects of tax treaty on trade indicators and the value of major exports are different depending on the country or region. The empirical results indicate that GDP lag, foreign investment in Taiwan, and Taiwanese investment in foreign countries have a positive effect on the trade indicators and the export value of Taiwanese major exports. In terms of trade indicators, in the ordinary least squares model, whether there are regional control or time control variables for accession, the tax treaty has a positive and significant effect on trade indicators. In both random effect model and one-way fixed effect model, the positive effect of the tax treaty on the trade indicators are found, but the result changes to insignificant. Therefore, the total positive effect of the tax treaty is larger than the total negative effect, and tax treaty contributes to the increase of bilateral trade volume. Then, we divide EU countries into different regions and found that the effect of tax treaty is not identical across different regions. In terms of major export goods, in the ordinary least squares model or there are time control variables for accession, the tax treaty has a positive and significant effect on the export value of all three major goods. In the model with regional control variables and random effect model, the tax treaty still has a positive and significant effect on the export of our Semiconductor products, while the effect on the export of our computer machine related products, computer components and their attachments become insignificant. In one-way fixed effect model, the effect of the tax treaty on the export of our computer components and their attachments turns to be positive and significant again. Therefore, the total positive effect of the tax treaty is still larger than the total negative effect. Signing tax treaty can effectively help to increase the export value of most of the major export goods. Lastly, we divide the European Union into different regions and countries for individual analysis, and found that the effect of the tax treaty varies, echoing the argument that the effects of signing tax treaties are not identical.參考文獻 陳美菊、李淑玲（2010）。全球經濟危機對臺灣貿易之影響及對策。經濟研究年刊，2010(10)，279-297。 Ariff, M., & Lopez, G. P. (2007). Outward foreign direct investment: The Malaysian experience. In International Workshop on Intra-Asian FDI Flows: Magnitude, Trends, Prospects and Policy Implications, 25-26. Barthélemy, J., & Cléaud, G. (2018). Trade balance and inflation fluctuations in the euro area. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 22(4), 931-960. Binh, D. T. T., Nguyen, V. D., & Cuong, H. M. (2014). Applying gravity model to analyze trade activities of Vietnam. Journal of International Economics and Management, (69), 3-18. Blonigen, B. A., & Davies, R. B. (2004). The effects of bilateral tax treaties on US FDI activity. International Tax and Public Finance, 11(5), 601-622. Brouwer, R., Brander, L., & Van Beukering, P. (2008). "A convenient truth": Air travel passengers' willingness to pay to offset their CO2 emissions. Climatic Change, 90(3), 299-313. Candau, F., & Rey, S. (2014). The effect of the euro on aeronautic trade: A French regional analysis. Economic Modelling, 41, 345-355. Castillo-Murciego, Á., & López-Laborda, J. (2019). The effect of double taxation treaties and territorial tax systems on foreign direct investment: Evidence for Spain. Economics, 13(1), 20190022. Egger, P., & Larch, M. (2011). An assessment of the Europe agreements' effects on bilateral trade, GDP, and welfare. European Economic Review, 55(2), 263-279. Froot, K. A., & Stein, J. C. (1991). Exchange rates and foreign direct investment: An imperfect capital markets approach. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(4), 1191-1217. Ganbaatar, B., Huang, J., Shuai, C., Nawaz, A., & Ali, M. (2021). Empirical analysis of factors affecting the bilateral trade between Mongolia and China. Sustainability, 13(7), 4051. Gonzalez Esteban, A. L. (2021). The determinants of world wheat trade, 1963-2010: A gravity equation approach. Gylfason, T. (1999). Exports, inflation and growth. World Development, 27(6), 1031-1057. Kiyota, K., & Urata, S. (2004). Exchange rate, exchange rate volatility and foreign direct investment. World Economy, 27(10), 1501-1536. Kristjánsdóttir, H., Guðlaugsson, Þ. Ö., Guðmundsdóttir, S., & Aðalsteinsson, G. D. (2020). Cultural and geographical distance: Effects on UK exports. Applied Economics Letters, 27(4), 275-279. Mariam, C., & Cecilio, T. (2004). Estimating the export and import demand for manufactured goods: The role of FDI. Review of World Economics, 140, 347-375. Mei, D., Ji, T., & Gong, L. (2020). Would currency appreciation reduce the trade surplus? Annals of Economics and Finance, 21(1), 85-110. Narayan, P. K., Rath, B. N., & Syarifuddin, F. (2022). Understanding the role of trade agreements in Indonesia's FDI. Journal of Asian Economics, 82, 101532. Nasrullah, M., Chang, L., Khan, K., Rizwanullah, M., Zulfiqar, F., & Ishfaq, M. (2020). Determinants of forest product group trade by gravity model approach: A case study of China. Forest Policy and Economics, 113, 102117. Natos, D., Mattas, K., & Tsakiridou, E. (2014). Assessing the effect of the remote geographical position of Cyprus on its agricultural exports. Operational Research, 14, 453-470. Neumayer, E. (2007). Do double taxation treaties increase foreign direct investment to developing countries? The Journal of Development Studies, 43(8), 1501-1519. Pan, S., & Chong, Z. (2023). Effects of FDI on trade among countries along the Belt and Road: A network perspective. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 32(1), 84-103. Paolini, D., Pistone, P., Pulina, G., & Zagler, M. (2016). Tax treaties with developing countries and the allocation of taxing rights. European Journal of Law and Economics, 42, 383-404. Pickering, A. (2013). Why negotiate tax treaties. Papers on selected topics in negotiation of tax treaties for developing countries, (1-N). Pietrzak, M. B., & Łapińska, J. (2015). Determinants of the European Union's trade: Evidence from a panel estimation of the gravity model. Yean, T. S. (2007). Outward foreign direct investment from Malaysia: An exploratory study. Südostasien aktuell: Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs, 26(5), 44-72. Yu, M. (2012). Does appreciation of the Renminbi decrease imports to the United States from China? Contemporary Economic Policy, 30(4), 533-547. Zhang, K. H., & Song, S. (2001). Promoting exports: The role of inward FDI in. China. China Economic Review, 11(4), 385-396. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財政學系
111255010資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111255010 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 吳文傑 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Wu, Wen-Chieh en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 簡劭恩 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Chien, Shao-En en_US dc.creator (作者) 簡劭恩 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Chien, Shao-En en_US dc.date (日期) 2024 en_US dc.date.accessioned 5-Aug-2024 14:44:46 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 5-Aug-2024 14:44:46 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 5-Aug-2024 14:44:46 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0111255010 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/152905 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 財政學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 111255010 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本文旨在研究影響臺灣貿易指標與主要出口貨物出口額的因素，其中特別著重於分析租稅協定的影響，使用歐盟27個國家在西元1998年至2022年的追蹤資料進行研究，探討各項因素對於貿易指標與主要出口貨物出口額之效果。 本文將租稅協定對於貿易指標的影響分為正向的貿易交流促進效果、投資出口促進效果，以及負向的資訊交換排擠效果、投資出口排擠效果，最終影響效果會因四種效果的相對大小而有所差異，以致於租稅協定對於貿易指標及主要出口貨物出口額的效果會因國家或地區而有不同結果。 實證結果中可以發現，GDP落後期、外國對臺投資額、臺灣對外投資額對貿易指標與主要出口貨物出口額為正向影響，為貿易促進因子。貿易指標方面，最小平方法模型中，無論有無加入區域或時間控制變數，租稅協定對貿易指標均為正向顯著影響；隨機效果以及一元固定效果模型中，租稅協定對貿易指標均為正向影響，但結果轉變為不顯著，因此租稅協定帶來的總正向效果大於總負向效果，簽訂租稅協定有助於雙邊貿易的增加，最後本篇將歐盟國家分為不同區域進行迴歸分析，發現租稅協定對於不同區域的效果並不相同。 主要出口貨物方面，在普通最小平方法模型與加入時間控制變數後，租稅協定對三種主要貨物的出口額均為正向顯著影響；加入區域控制變數與隨機效果模型中，租稅協定仍對我國積體電路類產品的出口為正向顯著影響，對我國電腦機器相關產品、電腦零件及其附件產品的出口則轉為不顯著；固定效果模型中，租稅協定對我國電腦零件及其附件產品的出口又轉為正向顯著，顯示此部分租稅協定帶來的總正向效果仍大於總負向效果，簽訂租稅協定能有效提升大部分主要出口貨物之出口額，最後將歐盟分為不同區域與國家進行個別分析，發現租稅協定效果正負不一，呼應了簽訂租稅協定影響效果不一的論點。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) The aim of this paper is to study the factors affecting the trade indicators and the export value of Taiwanese major exports, with a particular focus on analyzing the impact of the tax treaty. The research is conducted using panel data of 27 European Union (EU) countries from 1998 to 2022. This study examines the effects of various factors on the trade indicators and the export value of major exports. In this paper, the effects of tax treaty on trade indicators are categorized into positive trade-exchange-enhancing effects, investment-export-enhancing effects, and negative information-exchange crowding-out effects, investment-export crowding-out effects, and the final effects vary according to the relative sizes of these three effects. The effects of tax treaty on trade indicators and the value of major exports are different depending on the country or region. The empirical results indicate that GDP lag, foreign investment in Taiwan, and Taiwanese investment in foreign countries have a positive effect on the trade indicators and the export value of Taiwanese major exports. In terms of trade indicators, in the ordinary least squares model, whether there are regional control or time control variables for accession, the tax treaty has a positive and significant effect on trade indicators. In both random effect model and one-way fixed effect model, the positive effect of the tax treaty on the trade indicators are found, but the result changes to insignificant. Therefore, the total positive effect of the tax treaty is larger than the total negative effect, and tax treaty contributes to the increase of bilateral trade volume. Then, we divide EU countries into different regions and found that the effect of tax treaty is not identical across different regions. In terms of major export goods, in the ordinary least squares model or there are time control variables for accession, the tax treaty has a positive and significant effect on the export value of all three major goods. In the model with regional control variables and random effect model, the tax treaty still has a positive and significant effect on the export of our Semiconductor products, while the effect on the export of our computer machine related products, computer components and their attachments become insignificant. In one-way fixed effect model, the effect of the tax treaty on the export of our computer components and their attachments turns to be positive and significant again. Therefore, the total positive effect of the tax treaty is still larger than the total negative effect. Signing tax treaty can effectively help to increase the export value of most of the major export goods. Lastly, we divide the European Union into different regions and countries for individual analysis, and found that the effect of the tax treaty varies, echoing the argument that the effects of signing tax treaties are not identical. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究動機與目的 1 第二節 研究方法與範圍 4 第三節 研究限制 5 第四節 研究架構 5 第二章 文獻回顧 7 第一節 租稅協定相關研究 7 第二節 貿易指標相關研究 9 第三章 臺灣租稅協定與貿易指標現況 14 第一節 我國現行租稅協定制度介紹 14 第二節 臺灣與外國的雙邊貿易 22 第四章 研究方法及變數 29 第一節 假設建立 29 第二節 實證模型建立 32 第三節 變數界定 41 第四節 研究範圍與資料來源 48 第五章 實證研究結果 50 第一節 敘述性統計 50 第二節 相關係數結果 58 第三節 迴歸結果與分析 59 第六章 結論與建議 105 參考文獻 108 zh_TW dc.format.extent 1676995 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111255010 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 租稅協定 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 貿易指標 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 主要出口貨物 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 歐盟 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Tax treaty en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Trade indicators en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Major exports en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) European Union en_US dc.title (題名) 歐盟租稅協定對臺灣貿易指標影響之實證研究 zh_TW dc.title (題名) An Empirical Study on the Impact of the European Union Tax Treaty on Trade Indicators of Taiwan en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 陳美菊、李淑玲（2010）。全球經濟危機對臺灣貿易之影響及對策。經濟研究年刊，2010(10)，279-297。 Ariff, M., & Lopez, G. P. (2007). Outward foreign direct investment: The Malaysian experience. In International Workshop on Intra-Asian FDI Flows: Magnitude, Trends, Prospects and Policy Implications, 25-26. Barthélemy, J., & Cléaud, G. (2018). Trade balance and inflation fluctuations in the euro area. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 22(4), 931-960. Binh, D. T. T., Nguyen, V. D., & Cuong, H. M. (2014). Applying gravity model to analyze trade activities of Vietnam. Journal of International Economics and Management, (69), 3-18. Blonigen, B. A., & Davies, R. B. (2004). The effects of bilateral tax treaties on US FDI activity. International Tax and Public Finance, 11(5), 601-622. Brouwer, R., Brander, L., & Van Beukering, P. (2008). "A convenient truth": Air travel passengers' willingness to pay to offset their CO2 emissions. Climatic Change, 90(3), 299-313. Candau, F., & Rey, S. (2014). The effect of the euro on aeronautic trade: A French regional analysis. Economic Modelling, 41, 345-355. Castillo-Murciego, Á., & López-Laborda, J. (2019). The effect of double taxation treaties and territorial tax systems on foreign direct investment: Evidence for Spain. Economics, 13(1), 20190022. Egger, P., & Larch, M. (2011). An assessment of the Europe agreements' effects on bilateral trade, GDP, and welfare. European Economic Review, 55(2), 263-279. Froot, K. A., & Stein, J. C. (1991). Exchange rates and foreign direct investment: An imperfect capital markets approach. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(4), 1191-1217. Ganbaatar, B., Huang, J., Shuai, C., Nawaz, A., & Ali, M. (2021). Empirical analysis of factors affecting the bilateral trade between Mongolia and China. Sustainability, 13(7), 4051. Gonzalez Esteban, A. L. (2021). The determinants of world wheat trade, 1963-2010: A gravity equation approach. Gylfason, T. (1999). Exports, inflation and growth. World Development, 27(6), 1031-1057. Kiyota, K., & Urata, S. (2004). Exchange rate, exchange rate volatility and foreign direct investment. World Economy, 27(10), 1501-1536. Kristjánsdóttir, H., Guðlaugsson, Þ. Ö., Guðmundsdóttir, S., & Aðalsteinsson, G. D. (2020). Cultural and geographical distance: Effects on UK exports. Applied Economics Letters, 27(4), 275-279. Mariam, C., & Cecilio, T. (2004). Estimating the export and import demand for manufactured goods: The role of FDI. Review of World Economics, 140, 347-375. Mei, D., Ji, T., & Gong, L. (2020). Would currency appreciation reduce the trade surplus? Annals of Economics and Finance, 21(1), 85-110. Narayan, P. K., Rath, B. N., & Syarifuddin, F. (2022). Understanding the role of trade agreements in Indonesia's FDI. Journal of Asian Economics, 82, 101532. Nasrullah, M., Chang, L., Khan, K., Rizwanullah, M., Zulfiqar, F., & Ishfaq, M. (2020). Determinants of forest product group trade by gravity model approach: A case study of China. Forest Policy and Economics, 113, 102117. Natos, D., Mattas, K., & Tsakiridou, E. (2014). Assessing the effect of the remote geographical position of Cyprus on its agricultural exports. Operational Research, 14, 453-470. Neumayer, E. (2007). Do double taxation treaties increase foreign direct investment to developing countries? The Journal of Development Studies, 43(8), 1501-1519. Pan, S., & Chong, Z. (2023). Effects of FDI on trade among countries along the Belt and Road: A network perspective. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 32(1), 84-103. Paolini, D., Pistone, P., Pulina, G., & Zagler, M. (2016). Tax treaties with developing countries and the allocation of taxing rights. European Journal of Law and Economics, 42, 383-404. Pickering, A. (2013). Why negotiate tax treaties. Papers on selected topics in negotiation of tax treaties for developing countries, (1-N). Pietrzak, M. B., & Łapińska, J. (2015). Determinants of the European Union's trade: Evidence from a panel estimation of the gravity model. Yean, T. S. (2007). Outward foreign direct investment from Malaysia: An exploratory study. Südostasien aktuell: Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs, 26(5), 44-72. Yu, M. (2012). Does appreciation of the Renminbi decrease imports to the United States from China? Contemporary Economic Policy, 30(4), 533-547. Zhang, K. H., & Song, S. (2001). Promoting exports: The role of inward FDI in. China. China Economic Review, 11(4), 385-396. zh_TW
