學術產出-學位論文
文章檢視/開啟
書目匯出
-
題名 我國現行公共債務管理機制之探討
A Study of Public Debt Regulation and Mechanism in Taiwan作者 傅靖芳
Fu, Ching-Fang貢獻者 陳國樑
傅靖芳
Fu, Ching-Fang關鍵詞 財政紀律
公共債務
特別預算
Fiscal discipline
Public debt
Special budgets日期 2024 上傳時間 4-九月-2024 14:16:15 (UTC+8) 摘要 《公共債務法》施行以來，我國未償債務餘額仍持續攀升，另由於《預算法》第83條定義具解釋空間，近年行政機關頻繁提出特別預算做為施政替代財源，再另以特別條例排除計入年度舉債限額，加劇債務累積，引起各界對財政永續性 (fiscal sustainability) 的疑慮，亦使公共債務管理機制之檢討成為重要研究議題。本研究將分兩部份進行探討：首先是財政永續性的檢定，檢視我國財政狀況是否符合跨期預算平衡所具備之統計推論；接續檢討我國公共債務管理機制，從而降低政府透過編列特別預算取得財源之誘因。 根據單根及共整合檢定，我國1974至2022年的收支餘絀非定態，政府收入及政府支出兩者亦無法得出存在長期均衡關係之結論，顯示財政永續性未獲支持；另借鏡歐盟將景氣循環納入債務管控之精神，以1974至2022年的GDP、淨融資及收支餘絀三變數，透過向量誤差修正模型找出淨融資與GDP的長期均衡關係，研究發現，淨融資與GDP兩者呈負向關聯，當經濟成長使GDP增加1元，政府應減少淨融資0.017元，反之亦然。因此，建議政府對於年度舉債限額的計算指標，可加入GDP變動因子作為彈性調整空間，將有助於財政紀律之落實。
Since the “Public Debt Act” took effect, the outstanding public debts continue to climb undauntedly. In addition, due to the loose conditions in Article 83 of the “Budget Act”, the executive arm of the government has been increasingly using special budgets as alternative financial sources to exclude the rising public debts from annual borrowing limit as specified in the “Public Debt Act”. This has aroused concerns about fiscal sustainability and has made the review of the public debt regulation an important research topic. This study is divided into two parts: first, to examine whether the current fiscal situation is consistent with the statistical inferences of intertemporal budget balance. Next, to review the public debt regulation to reduce the incentive of using special budgets as financial sources. According to unit-root test and co-integration test, the country's net of fiscal revenues and expenditures from 1974 to 2022 is not stationary, and there is no long-term equilibrium relationship between revenues and expenditures, together these results indicate that fiscal sustainability is not supported. Taking lessons from the European Union’s fiscal management mechanism that links economic development with structural deficits, this study estimated the long-term equilibrium relationship between GDP, net debts, and net of fiscal revenues and expenditures. Through a vector error correction model (VECM) with data from 1974 to 2022, we found a negative correlation between net debts and GDP, when GDP increases by $1, the net debts should reduce by $0.017, and vice versa. This finding can be incorporated in the reform of the annual borrowing limit to strengthen fiscal discipline.參考文獻 王菀禪 (2008)，《從結構性赤字探討我國財政永續性問題》，國立臺北大學財政學系碩士論文。 石恩銘與陳國樑 (2023)，「論財政紀律彈性機制之設計」，《主計月刊》，805，48–55。 林子期 (2004)，《我國中央政府預算赤字控制之研究》，國立中山大學政治學研究所碩士論文。 孫克難 (2002)，「財政失衡、財政改革與財政紀律」，《經濟前瞻》，79，69–74。 徐仁輝 (2002)，《預算赤字與預算改革》，臺北：智勝文化事業有限公司。 徐仁輝 (2013)，「從歐債危機看財政撙節爭議」，《主計月刊》，693，24–29。 翁明珠 (2013)，《公共債務法修法過程 (1998–2013) 研究》，東海大學公共事務碩士專班碩士論文。 張信一 (2002)，《預算制度授權與彈性之檢討》，臺北：行政院主計處。 莊振輝 (2005)，「追加預算及特別預算之研究」，《財稅研究》，37，91–106。 郭美珍 (2015)，「淺談美國國會預算審議機制及近年財政改革情形」，《主計月刊》，716，38–44。 郭鎮豪與吳朝欽 (2016)，「我國與OECD國家財政永續性之探討」，《財稅研究》，45，67–92。 陳旭昇 (2011)，《時間序列分析：總體經濟與財務金融之應用》，臺北：臺灣東華書局股份有限公司。 陳怡如 (2006)，《我國財政政策永續性之實證研究》，國立臺北大學財政學系碩士論文。 游憲廷 (2012)，「我國特別預算制度之研究」，《蘭陽學報》，11，128–144。 楊奕農 (2009)，《時間序列分析：經濟與財務上之應用》，臺北：雙葉書廊有限公司。 蔡吉源 (1995)，「財政赤字之成因與改進之道」，《財稅研究》，27，48–62。 蔡馨芳 (2013)，「臺灣財政永續性之研究：政府角色的反思」，《公共行政學報》，44，41–72。 鄭明德 (2021)，「立法院財政委員會與財政紀律法的制定」，《中華行政學報》，28，33–44。 鄭春福 (2005)，《地方政府以預算編製機制維持財政秩序的探討》，逢甲大學經營管理碩士在職專班碩士論文。 羅承宗 (2006)，「特別預算之研究—兼評大法官釋字二三一、四六三號解釋」，《中原財經法學》，16，117–156。 蘇彩足 (1996)，《政府預算之研究 (初版)》，臺北：華泰書局。 蘇彩足 (1998)，「因應『公共預算新紀元』之危機」，《中國行政評論》，8，23–42。 蘇彩足 (2000)，「民主化對於政府預算決策的衝擊與因應之道」，《民主轉型與經濟衝突》，臺北：桂冠圖書股份有限公司。 Afonso, A. and J. Jalles (2016), The Elusive Character of Fiscal Sustainability, Applied Economics, 48, 2651–2664. Banerjee, A., J. Dolado, J. Galbraith, and D. Hendry (1993), Co-Integration, Error-Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data, United Kingdom: Oxford University Press. Barro, R. (1979), “On the Determination of the Public Debt,” Journal of Political Economy, 87, 940–971. Barro, R. (1986), “U.S. Deficits since World War I,” The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 88, 195–222. Brady, G. and C. Magazzino (2018), “Fiscal Sustainability in the EU,” Atlantic Economic Journal, 46, 297–311. Brandner, P., L. Diebalek, and H. Schuberth (1998), “Structural Budget Deficits and Sustainability of Fiscal Positions in the European Union,” Oesterreichische Nationalbank Working Paper, No. 26. Buchanan, J. and R. Wagner (1977), Democracy in Deficit: The Political Legacy of Lord Keynes, New York: Academic Press. Burnside, C. (2005), Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice: A Handbook, Washington, D.C.: World Bank Press. Chen, S.-W., C.-K. Hsieh and Z. Xie (2024), “Is the Public Indebtedness of the G-7 Sustainable in the Aftermath of the COVID-19 Pandemic?” Taiwan Economic Forecast and Policy, 54, 1–43. Engle, R. and C. Granger (1987), “Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing,” Econometrica, 55, 251–276. European Commission (2016), “Vade Mecum on the Stability and Growth Pact 2016 edition,” European Economy Institutional Paper, No. 21. Granger, C. (1981), “Some Properties of Time Series Data and Their Use in Econometric Model Specification,” Journal of Econometrics, 16, 121–130. Hakkio, C. and M. Rush (1991), “Is the Budget Deficit Too Large?” Economic Inquiry, 29, 429–445. Hamilton, J. and M. Flavin (1986), “On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for Empirical Testing,” The American Economic Review, 76, 808–819. Johansen, S. (1988), “Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 231–254. Johansen, S. and K. Juselius (1990), “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration—with Applications to the Demand for Money,” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169–210. Kenyon, D. and K. Benker (1984), “Fiscal Discipline: Lessons from the State Experience,” National Tax Journal, 37, 433–446. Kopits, G. and S. Symansky (1998), Fiscal Policy Rules, Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund Press. Kremers, J. (1989), “U.S. Federal Indebtedness and the Conduct of Fiscal Policy,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 23, 219–238. Kumar, M. and T. Ter-Minassian (2007), Promoting Fiscal Discipline, Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund Press. Nordhaus, W. (1975), “The Political Business Cycle,” The Review of Economic Studies, 42, 169–190. OECD (2013), Government at a Glance 2013, Paris: OECD Press. Quintos, C. (1995), “Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts,” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13, 409–417. Said, S. and D. Dickey (1984), “Testing for Unit Roots in Autoregressive-Moving Average Models of Unknown Order,” Biometrika, 71, 599–607. Siebrits, K. and E. Calitz (2023), “Fiscal Anchors and Sustainable Fiscal Policy,” World Institute for Development Economics Research Working Paper, No. 98. Trehan, B. and C. Walsh (1988), “Common Trends, the Government's Budget Constraint, and Revenue Smoothing,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 425–444. Wilcox, D. (1989), “The Sustainability of Government Deficits: Implications of the Present-Value Borrowing Constraint,” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 21, 291–306. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
行政管理碩士學程
110921061資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110921061 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 陳國樑 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (作者) 傅靖芳 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (作者) Fu, Ching-Fang en_US dc.creator (作者) 傅靖芳 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Fu, Ching-Fang en_US dc.date (日期) 2024 en_US dc.date.accessioned 4-九月-2024 14:16:15 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 4-九月-2024 14:16:15 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 4-九月-2024 14:16:15 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) G0110921061 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/153197 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 行政管理碩士學程 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 110921061 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 《公共債務法》施行以來，我國未償債務餘額仍持續攀升，另由於《預算法》第83條定義具解釋空間，近年行政機關頻繁提出特別預算做為施政替代財源，再另以特別條例排除計入年度舉債限額，加劇債務累積，引起各界對財政永續性 (fiscal sustainability) 的疑慮，亦使公共債務管理機制之檢討成為重要研究議題。本研究將分兩部份進行探討：首先是財政永續性的檢定，檢視我國財政狀況是否符合跨期預算平衡所具備之統計推論；接續檢討我國公共債務管理機制，從而降低政府透過編列特別預算取得財源之誘因。 根據單根及共整合檢定，我國1974至2022年的收支餘絀非定態，政府收入及政府支出兩者亦無法得出存在長期均衡關係之結論，顯示財政永續性未獲支持；另借鏡歐盟將景氣循環納入債務管控之精神，以1974至2022年的GDP、淨融資及收支餘絀三變數，透過向量誤差修正模型找出淨融資與GDP的長期均衡關係，研究發現，淨融資與GDP兩者呈負向關聯，當經濟成長使GDP增加1元，政府應減少淨融資0.017元，反之亦然。因此，建議政府對於年度舉債限額的計算指標，可加入GDP變動因子作為彈性調整空間，將有助於財政紀律之落實。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) Since the “Public Debt Act” took effect, the outstanding public debts continue to climb undauntedly. In addition, due to the loose conditions in Article 83 of the “Budget Act”, the executive arm of the government has been increasingly using special budgets as alternative financial sources to exclude the rising public debts from annual borrowing limit as specified in the “Public Debt Act”. This has aroused concerns about fiscal sustainability and has made the review of the public debt regulation an important research topic. This study is divided into two parts: first, to examine whether the current fiscal situation is consistent with the statistical inferences of intertemporal budget balance. Next, to review the public debt regulation to reduce the incentive of using special budgets as financial sources. According to unit-root test and co-integration test, the country's net of fiscal revenues and expenditures from 1974 to 2022 is not stationary, and there is no long-term equilibrium relationship between revenues and expenditures, together these results indicate that fiscal sustainability is not supported. Taking lessons from the European Union’s fiscal management mechanism that links economic development with structural deficits, this study estimated the long-term equilibrium relationship between GDP, net debts, and net of fiscal revenues and expenditures. Through a vector error correction model (VECM) with data from 1974 to 2022, we found a negative correlation between net debts and GDP, when GDP increases by $1, the net debts should reduce by $0.017, and vice versa. This finding can be incorporated in the reform of the annual borrowing limit to strengthen fiscal discipline. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究背景 1 第二節 研究動機與目的 6 第三節 研究架構與方法 9 第二章 文獻回顧 10 第一節 財政紀律與公共債務 10 一、財政紀律 10 二、公共債務 12 第二節 我國政府預算特性 14 一、預算赤字 14 二、特別預算 15 第三節 財政永續性實證研究 17 一、臺灣 17 二、國際 18 第三章 現況分析與說明 21 第一節 公共債務未償餘額 21 第二節 特別預算 29 第三節 國際財政管理機制 35 第四章 財政永續性檢驗 38 第一節 研究模型 38 一、單根檢定 38 二、共整合檢定 40 第二節 研究範圍及設計 43 第三節 檢驗結果 48 一、單根檢定 50 二、共整合檢定 52 第五章 債限彈性機制實證分析 56 第一節 研究範圍及設計 56 第二節 實證結果與發現 60 第六章 結論與建議 66 參考文獻 68 附錄 72 zh_TW dc.format.extent 2966649 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110921061 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 財政紀律 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 公共債務 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 特別預算 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Fiscal discipline en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Public debt en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Special budgets en_US dc.title (題名) 我國現行公共債務管理機制之探討 zh_TW dc.title (題名) A Study of Public Debt Regulation and Mechanism in Taiwan en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 王菀禪 (2008)，《從結構性赤字探討我國財政永續性問題》，國立臺北大學財政學系碩士論文。 石恩銘與陳國樑 (2023)，「論財政紀律彈性機制之設計」，《主計月刊》，805，48–55。 林子期 (2004)，《我國中央政府預算赤字控制之研究》，國立中山大學政治學研究所碩士論文。 孫克難 (2002)，「財政失衡、財政改革與財政紀律」，《經濟前瞻》，79，69–74。 徐仁輝 (2002)，《預算赤字與預算改革》，臺北：智勝文化事業有限公司。 徐仁輝 (2013)，「從歐債危機看財政撙節爭議」，《主計月刊》，693，24–29。 翁明珠 (2013)，《公共債務法修法過程 (1998–2013) 研究》，東海大學公共事務碩士專班碩士論文。 張信一 (2002)，《預算制度授權與彈性之檢討》，臺北：行政院主計處。 莊振輝 (2005)，「追加預算及特別預算之研究」，《財稅研究》，37，91–106。 郭美珍 (2015)，「淺談美國國會預算審議機制及近年財政改革情形」，《主計月刊》，716，38–44。 郭鎮豪與吳朝欽 (2016)，「我國與OECD國家財政永續性之探討」，《財稅研究》，45，67–92。 陳旭昇 (2011)，《時間序列分析：總體經濟與財務金融之應用》，臺北：臺灣東華書局股份有限公司。 陳怡如 (2006)，《我國財政政策永續性之實證研究》，國立臺北大學財政學系碩士論文。 游憲廷 (2012)，「我國特別預算制度之研究」，《蘭陽學報》，11，128–144。 楊奕農 (2009)，《時間序列分析：經濟與財務上之應用》，臺北：雙葉書廊有限公司。 蔡吉源 (1995)，「財政赤字之成因與改進之道」，《財稅研究》，27，48–62。 蔡馨芳 (2013)，「臺灣財政永續性之研究：政府角色的反思」，《公共行政學報》，44，41–72。 鄭明德 (2021)，「立法院財政委員會與財政紀律法的制定」，《中華行政學報》，28，33–44。 鄭春福 (2005)，《地方政府以預算編製機制維持財政秩序的探討》，逢甲大學經營管理碩士在職專班碩士論文。 羅承宗 (2006)，「特別預算之研究—兼評大法官釋字二三一、四六三號解釋」，《中原財經法學》，16，117–156。 蘇彩足 (1996)，《政府預算之研究 (初版)》，臺北：華泰書局。 蘇彩足 (1998)，「因應『公共預算新紀元』之危機」，《中國行政評論》，8，23–42。 蘇彩足 (2000)，「民主化對於政府預算決策的衝擊與因應之道」，《民主轉型與經濟衝突》，臺北：桂冠圖書股份有限公司。 Afonso, A. and J. Jalles (2016), The Elusive Character of Fiscal Sustainability, Applied Economics, 48, 2651–2664. Banerjee, A., J. Dolado, J. Galbraith, and D. Hendry (1993), Co-Integration, Error-Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data, United Kingdom: Oxford University Press. Barro, R. (1979), “On the Determination of the Public Debt,” Journal of Political Economy, 87, 940–971. Barro, R. (1986), “U.S. Deficits since World War I,” The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 88, 195–222. Brady, G. and C. Magazzino (2018), “Fiscal Sustainability in the EU,” Atlantic Economic Journal, 46, 297–311. Brandner, P., L. Diebalek, and H. Schuberth (1998), “Structural Budget Deficits and Sustainability of Fiscal Positions in the European Union,” Oesterreichische Nationalbank Working Paper, No. 26. Buchanan, J. and R. Wagner (1977), Democracy in Deficit: The Political Legacy of Lord Keynes, New York: Academic Press. Burnside, C. (2005), Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice: A Handbook, Washington, D.C.: World Bank Press. Chen, S.-W., C.-K. Hsieh and Z. Xie (2024), “Is the Public Indebtedness of the G-7 Sustainable in the Aftermath of the COVID-19 Pandemic?” Taiwan Economic Forecast and Policy, 54, 1–43. Engle, R. and C. Granger (1987), “Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing,” Econometrica, 55, 251–276. European Commission (2016), “Vade Mecum on the Stability and Growth Pact 2016 edition,” European Economy Institutional Paper, No. 21. Granger, C. (1981), “Some Properties of Time Series Data and Their Use in Econometric Model Specification,” Journal of Econometrics, 16, 121–130. Hakkio, C. and M. Rush (1991), “Is the Budget Deficit Too Large?” Economic Inquiry, 29, 429–445. Hamilton, J. and M. Flavin (1986), “On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for Empirical Testing,” The American Economic Review, 76, 808–819. Johansen, S. (1988), “Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 231–254. Johansen, S. and K. Juselius (1990), “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration—with Applications to the Demand for Money,” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169–210. Kenyon, D. and K. Benker (1984), “Fiscal Discipline: Lessons from the State Experience,” National Tax Journal, 37, 433–446. Kopits, G. and S. Symansky (1998), Fiscal Policy Rules, Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund Press. Kremers, J. (1989), “U.S. Federal Indebtedness and the Conduct of Fiscal Policy,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 23, 219–238. Kumar, M. and T. Ter-Minassian (2007), Promoting Fiscal Discipline, Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund Press. Nordhaus, W. (1975), “The Political Business Cycle,” The Review of Economic Studies, 42, 169–190. OECD (2013), Government at a Glance 2013, Paris: OECD Press. Quintos, C. (1995), “Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts,” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13, 409–417. Said, S. and D. Dickey (1984), “Testing for Unit Roots in Autoregressive-Moving Average Models of Unknown Order,” Biometrika, 71, 599–607. Siebrits, K. and E. Calitz (2023), “Fiscal Anchors and Sustainable Fiscal Policy,” World Institute for Development Economics Research Working Paper, No. 98. Trehan, B. and C. Walsh (1988), “Common Trends, the Government's Budget Constraint, and Revenue Smoothing,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 425–444. Wilcox, D. (1989), “The Sustainability of Government Deficits: Implications of the Present-Value Borrowing Constraint,” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 21, 291–306. zh_TW
