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題名 臺灣各縣市房價對結婚率之影響
The Impact of Housing Price on the Marriage Rate作者 王君瑜
Wang, Chun-Yu貢獻者 黃智聰
Huang, Jr-Tsung
王君瑜
Wang, Chun-Yu關鍵詞 房價
結婚率
空間計量模型
空間相依
臺灣日期 2024 上傳時間 4-九月-2024 14:17:26 (UTC+8) 摘要 隨著房地產市場的動態變化，房價對於在婚姻市場裡的影響程度舉無輕重，有人認為先有房在結婚，有人認為先結婚再買房。故本文研究目的在於探討房價對結婚率的影響，以及這一經濟因素如何塑造當代婚姻趨勢。本文探討2013年至2022年從臺灣本島各縣市房價之變化去對婚姻決策之探討，從改制後臺灣本島縣市重要統計指標自選項目各縣市之房價角度切入來探討該因素對結婚的影響，樣本數為200筆追蹤資料，並依檢定結果，使用固定效果空間自我迴歸模型進行實證分析。 實證結果表明，各縣市房價對粗結婚率呈現負向影響，而其他解釋變數房價、扶老比、失業率、就業者的行業結構中的工業部分以及服務業部分都與結婚率有顯著的負向影響。而女性的勞動參與率和女性高等教育比率相關性不顯著。 參考文獻 壹、 中文文獻 邱奕傑（2009）。 影響臺灣地區男女初婚因素之探討。新北市：國立臺北大學經濟學系碩士論文，未出版。 翁桓盛、許孟勤（2012）。婚姻與家庭。新北市：心理出版社。 高淑貴（1996）。家庭社會學。臺北市: 黎明文化。 郭祐誠、林佳慧（2012）。勞動市場條件對結婚率下降之影響，人口學刊，44，87-124。 黃宜慧（2010）。理想伴侶特質與戀愛滿意度：演化論觀點之檢驗。臺北市：世新大學社會心理學研究所碩士論文，未出版。 藍采風（1996）。婚姻與家庭（Marriage and the Family）。臺北市：幼獅文化事業公司。 貳、英文文獻 Albrecht, D.E. and C.M. Albrecht (2008), “The Implications of Economic Structure for Marriage Prevalence.” Open Sociology Journal, 1(1), 9-22. Aldén, Edlund L., M. Hammarstedt, and M. Mueller-Smith (2015), “Effect of Registered Partnership on Labor Earnings and Fertility for Same-sex Couples: Evidence from Swedish Register Data.” Demography, 52(4), 1243-1268. Anderson, T. and H.P. Kohler(2013), “Education Fever and The East Asian Fertility Puzzle: A Case Study of Low Fertility in South Korea.” Asian Population Studies, 9(2), 196-215. Anselin, L. (1988), Spatial Econometrics: Methods and Models. Dordrecht, Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers. Becker, G.S. (1973), “A Theory of Marriage: Part I.” Journal of Political Economy, 81(4), 813-846. Becker, G.S. (1981), A Treatise on the Family. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. Bertrand, M., E. Kamenica, and J. Pan (2015), “Gender Identity and Relative Income within Households.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 130(2), 571-614. Bursztyn, L., T. Fujiwara, and A. Pallais (2017), “Acting Wife: Marriage Market Incentives and Labor Market Investments.” American Economic Review, 107(11), 3288-3319. Buss, D.M. (2005), The Handbook of Evolutionary Psychology. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons. Easterlin, R.A. (1980), Birth and Fortune: The Impact of Numbers on Personal Welfare. Chicago, IL: The University of Chicago Press. Elhorst, J.P. (2014), Spatial Econometrics：From Cross-Sectional Data to Spatial Panels. Berlin, Heidelberg：Springer. Fang, D. (2022), “The Effect of Household Dependency Ratio on the Mental Health of Workforce: Evidence from China.” Frontiers in Public Health, 10, Article 848114. DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.848114 Foote, N.N. (1951), “Identification as the Basis for A Theory of Motivation.” American Sociological Review, 16(1), 14-21. Gholipour, H.F. and M.R. Farzanegan (2015), “Marriage Crisis and Housing Costs: Empirical Evidence from Provinces of Iran.” Journal of Policy Modeling, 37(1), 107-123. González-Val, R. (2022), “House Prices and Marriage in Spain. ”Sustainability, 14(5), Article 2848. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14052848 Goodman, Dena (2005), “Marriage Calculations in the Eighteenth Century: Deconstructing the Love vs. Duty Binary.” Journal of the Western Society for French History, 33, 146–162. Hausman, J.A. (1978), “Specification Tests in Econometrics.” Econometrica, 46(6), 1251-1271. Hays, S. (1998), The Cultural Contradictions of Motherhood. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press. Hirao, K. (2007), Contradictions in Maternal Roles in Contemporary Japan. In T. Devasahayam and B.S.A. Yeoh (eds.), Working and Mothering in Asia: Images, Ideologies and Identities, 51-83. Singapore: NUS Press. Hu, M., L. Wu, G. Xiang, and S. Zhong (2023), “Housing Prices and the Probability of Marriage Among the Young: Evidence from Land Reform in China.” International Journal of Emerging Markets, 18(2), 420-438. LeSage, James and R.K. Pace (2009), Introduction to Spatial Econometrics. London, UK: CRC Press Taylor and Francis Group. Liu, H., L Liu., and F. Wang (2023), “Housing Wealth and Fertility: Evidence from. China.” Journal of Population Economics, 36(1), 359-395. Maslow, A.H. (1943), “A Theory of Human Motivation.” Psychological Review, 50(4), 370-396. Moran, P.A.P. (1950), “Notes on Continuous Stochastic Phenomena.” Biometrika, 7, 17-23. Nemoto, K., M. Fuwa, and K. Ishiguro (2013), “Never-Married Employed Men's Gender Beliefs and Ambivalence Toward Matrimony in Japan.” Journal of Family Issues, 34(12), 1673-1695. Ono, H. (2003), “Women's Economic Standing, Marriage Timing, and Cross‐National Contexts of Gender.” Journal of Marriage and Family, 65(2), 275-286. Oppenheimer, V. K. (1988), “A Theory of Marriage Timing.” American Journal of Sociology, 94(3), 563-591. Parsons, T. (1949), “The Social Structure of the Family.” In R.N. Anshen (ed.), The family: Its Function and Destiny 173–201. New York, NY: Harper and Brothers. Piotrowski, M., A. Kalleberg, and R.R. Rindfuss (2014), “Contingent Work Rising: Implications for the Timing of Marriage in Japan.” Journal of Marriage and Family, 77(5), 1039-1056. Raymo, J. M. (2015), “Living Alone in Japan: Relationships with Happiness and Health.” Demographic Research, 32, 1267-1298. Raymo, J. M. and M. Iwasawa (2005), “Marriage Market Mismatches in Japan: An Alternative View of the Relationship between Women's Education and Marriage.” American Sociological Review, 70(5), 801-822. Raymo, J.M. (1998), “Later Marriages or Fewer? Changes in the Marriage Behavior of Japanese Women.” Journal of Marriage and Family, 60(4), 1023-1034. Raymo, J.M. (2003), “Educational Attainment and the Transition to First Marriage among Japanese Women.” Demography, 40(1), 83-103. Raymo, J.M., M. Iwasawa, and L. Bumpass (2009), “Cohabitation and First Marriage in Japan.” Demography, 46(4), 785-803. Retherford, R.D. and N. Ogawa (2006), Japan's Baby Bust: Causes, Implications, and Policy Responses. In D. R. Harris (ed.), The Baby Bust: Who Will Do the Work? Who Will Pay the Taxes?, 5-48. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield. Smits, J. and H. Park (2009), “Five Decades of Educational Assortative Mating in Ten East Asian Societies.” Social Forces, 88(1), 227-255. Su, C.W., K. Khan, R. Tao, and A. Dumitrescu Peculea, (2020), “Do House prices Squeeze Marriages in China?” Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 33(1), 1419-1440. Trandafir, M. (2015), “Legal Recognition of Same-sex Couples and Family Formation.” Demography, 52(1), 113-151. Trivers, R.L. (1972), “Parental Investment and Sexual Selection.” In B. Campbell (ed.), Sexual Selection and the Descent of Man: The Darwinian Pivot, 136-179. London, UK: Routledge and CRC Press. Tsuya, N.O., L.L. Bumpass, M.K. Choe, and R.R. Rindfuss (2005), “Is the Gender Division of Labor Changing in Japan?” Asian Population Studies, 1(1), 47-67. Wilson, W.J. (1987), The Truly Disadvantaged. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press. Wrenn, D.H., J. Yi, and B. Zhang (2019), “House Prices and Marriage Entry in China.” Regional Science and Urban Economics, 74, 118-130. Xie, J. and X. Hong (2022), “Research on Factors Affecting Chinese College Students' marriage Intention: Applying the Theory of Planned Behavior.” Frontiers in Psychology, Article 868275. Doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2022.868275 Yi, J. and J. Zhang (2010), “The Effect of House Price on Fertility: Evidence from Hong Kong.” Economic Inquiry, 48(3), 635-650. Yu, J. and Y. Xie (2015), “Changes in the Determinants of Marriage Entry in Post-Reform Urban China.” Demography, 52, 1869-1892. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-015-0432-z 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
行政管理碩士學程
111921057資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111921057 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 黃智聰 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Huang, Jr-Tsung en_US dc.contributor.author (作者) 王君瑜 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (作者) Wang, Chun-Yu en_US dc.creator (作者) 王君瑜 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Wang, Chun-Yu en_US dc.date (日期) 2024 en_US dc.date.accessioned 4-九月-2024 14:17:26 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 4-九月-2024 14:17:26 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 4-九月-2024 14:17:26 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) G0111921057 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/153203 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 行政管理碩士學程 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 111921057 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 隨著房地產市場的動態變化，房價對於在婚姻市場裡的影響程度舉無輕重，有人認為先有房在結婚，有人認為先結婚再買房。故本文研究目的在於探討房價對結婚率的影響，以及這一經濟因素如何塑造當代婚姻趨勢。本文探討2013年至2022年從臺灣本島各縣市房價之變化去對婚姻決策之探討，從改制後臺灣本島縣市重要統計指標自選項目各縣市之房價角度切入來探討該因素對結婚的影響，樣本數為200筆追蹤資料，並依檢定結果，使用固定效果空間自我迴歸模型進行實證分析。 實證結果表明，各縣市房價對粗結婚率呈現負向影響，而其他解釋變數房價、扶老比、失業率、就業者的行業結構中的工業部分以及服務業部分都與結婚率有顯著的負向影響。而女性的勞動參與率和女性高等教育比率相關性不顯著。 zh_TW dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 第一節 研究背景1 第二節 研究目的與貢獻3 第三節 研究架構與流程5 第二章 文獻探討 第一節 婚姻理論8 第二節 房價對結婚率的影響19 第三節 其他影響結婚率之因素24 第三章 現況分析 第一節 臺灣各縣市結婚率現況分析27 第二節 臺灣各縣市之房價現況分析33 第四章 研究方法 第一節 空間計量模型介紹與應用36 第二節 實證模型設定與變數設定43 第三節 研究範圍與限制50 第五章 實證分析與結果 第一節 檢定結果51 第二節 實證模型之確立及分析結果57 第六章 結論與政策建議 第一節 結論60 第二節 政策建議61 參考文獻63 壹、 中文文獻 貳、 英文文獻 zh_TW dc.format.extent 4309434 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111921057 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 房價 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 結婚率 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 空間計量模型 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 空間相依 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 臺灣 zh_TW dc.title (題名) 臺灣各縣市房價對結婚率之影響 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The Impact of Housing Price on the Marriage Rate en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 壹、 中文文獻 邱奕傑（2009）。 影響臺灣地區男女初婚因素之探討。新北市：國立臺北大學經濟學系碩士論文，未出版。 翁桓盛、許孟勤（2012）。婚姻與家庭。新北市：心理出版社。 高淑貴（1996）。家庭社會學。臺北市: 黎明文化。 郭祐誠、林佳慧（2012）。勞動市場條件對結婚率下降之影響，人口學刊，44，87-124。 黃宜慧（2010）。理想伴侶特質與戀愛滿意度：演化論觀點之檢驗。臺北市：世新大學社會心理學研究所碩士論文，未出版。 藍采風（1996）。婚姻與家庭（Marriage and the Family）。臺北市：幼獅文化事業公司。 貳、英文文獻 Albrecht, D.E. and C.M. Albrecht (2008), “The Implications of Economic Structure for Marriage Prevalence.” Open Sociology Journal, 1(1), 9-22. Aldén, Edlund L., M. Hammarstedt, and M. Mueller-Smith (2015), “Effect of Registered Partnership on Labor Earnings and Fertility for Same-sex Couples: Evidence from Swedish Register Data.” Demography, 52(4), 1243-1268. Anderson, T. and H.P. Kohler(2013), “Education Fever and The East Asian Fertility Puzzle: A Case Study of Low Fertility in South Korea.” Asian Population Studies, 9(2), 196-215. Anselin, L. (1988), Spatial Econometrics: Methods and Models. Dordrecht, Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers. Becker, G.S. (1973), “A Theory of Marriage: Part I.” Journal of Political Economy, 81(4), 813-846. Becker, G.S. (1981), A Treatise on the Family. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. Bertrand, M., E. Kamenica, and J. Pan (2015), “Gender Identity and Relative Income within Households.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 130(2), 571-614. Bursztyn, L., T. Fujiwara, and A. Pallais (2017), “Acting Wife: Marriage Market Incentives and Labor Market Investments.” American Economic Review, 107(11), 3288-3319. Buss, D.M. (2005), The Handbook of Evolutionary Psychology. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons. Easterlin, R.A. (1980), Birth and Fortune: The Impact of Numbers on Personal Welfare. Chicago, IL: The University of Chicago Press. Elhorst, J.P. (2014), Spatial Econometrics：From Cross-Sectional Data to Spatial Panels. Berlin, Heidelberg：Springer. Fang, D. (2022), “The Effect of Household Dependency Ratio on the Mental Health of Workforce: Evidence from China.” Frontiers in Public Health, 10, Article 848114. DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.848114 Foote, N.N. (1951), “Identification as the Basis for A Theory of Motivation.” American Sociological Review, 16(1), 14-21. Gholipour, H.F. and M.R. Farzanegan (2015), “Marriage Crisis and Housing Costs: Empirical Evidence from Provinces of Iran.” Journal of Policy Modeling, 37(1), 107-123. González-Val, R. (2022), “House Prices and Marriage in Spain. ”Sustainability, 14(5), Article 2848. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14052848 Goodman, Dena (2005), “Marriage Calculations in the Eighteenth Century: Deconstructing the Love vs. Duty Binary.” Journal of the Western Society for French History, 33, 146–162. Hausman, J.A. (1978), “Specification Tests in Econometrics.” Econometrica, 46(6), 1251-1271. Hays, S. (1998), The Cultural Contradictions of Motherhood. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press. Hirao, K. (2007), Contradictions in Maternal Roles in Contemporary Japan. In T. Devasahayam and B.S.A. Yeoh (eds.), Working and Mothering in Asia: Images, Ideologies and Identities, 51-83. Singapore: NUS Press. Hu, M., L. Wu, G. Xiang, and S. Zhong (2023), “Housing Prices and the Probability of Marriage Among the Young: Evidence from Land Reform in China.” International Journal of Emerging Markets, 18(2), 420-438. LeSage, James and R.K. Pace (2009), Introduction to Spatial Econometrics. London, UK: CRC Press Taylor and Francis Group. Liu, H., L Liu., and F. Wang (2023), “Housing Wealth and Fertility: Evidence from. China.” Journal of Population Economics, 36(1), 359-395. Maslow, A.H. (1943), “A Theory of Human Motivation.” Psychological Review, 50(4), 370-396. Moran, P.A.P. (1950), “Notes on Continuous Stochastic Phenomena.” Biometrika, 7, 17-23. Nemoto, K., M. Fuwa, and K. Ishiguro (2013), “Never-Married Employed Men's Gender Beliefs and Ambivalence Toward Matrimony in Japan.” Journal of Family Issues, 34(12), 1673-1695. Ono, H. (2003), “Women's Economic Standing, Marriage Timing, and Cross‐National Contexts of Gender.” Journal of Marriage and Family, 65(2), 275-286. Oppenheimer, V. K. (1988), “A Theory of Marriage Timing.” American Journal of Sociology, 94(3), 563-591. Parsons, T. (1949), “The Social Structure of the Family.” In R.N. Anshen (ed.), The family: Its Function and Destiny 173–201. New York, NY: Harper and Brothers. Piotrowski, M., A. Kalleberg, and R.R. Rindfuss (2014), “Contingent Work Rising: Implications for the Timing of Marriage in Japan.” Journal of Marriage and Family, 77(5), 1039-1056. Raymo, J. M. (2015), “Living Alone in Japan: Relationships with Happiness and Health.” Demographic Research, 32, 1267-1298. Raymo, J. M. and M. Iwasawa (2005), “Marriage Market Mismatches in Japan: An Alternative View of the Relationship between Women's Education and Marriage.” American Sociological Review, 70(5), 801-822. Raymo, J.M. (1998), “Later Marriages or Fewer? Changes in the Marriage Behavior of Japanese Women.” Journal of Marriage and Family, 60(4), 1023-1034. Raymo, J.M. (2003), “Educational Attainment and the Transition to First Marriage among Japanese Women.” Demography, 40(1), 83-103. Raymo, J.M., M. Iwasawa, and L. Bumpass (2009), “Cohabitation and First Marriage in Japan.” Demography, 46(4), 785-803. Retherford, R.D. and N. Ogawa (2006), Japan's Baby Bust: Causes, Implications, and Policy Responses. In D. R. Harris (ed.), The Baby Bust: Who Will Do the Work? Who Will Pay the Taxes?, 5-48. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield. Smits, J. and H. Park (2009), “Five Decades of Educational Assortative Mating in Ten East Asian Societies.” Social Forces, 88(1), 227-255. Su, C.W., K. Khan, R. Tao, and A. Dumitrescu Peculea, (2020), “Do House prices Squeeze Marriages in China?” Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 33(1), 1419-1440. Trandafir, M. (2015), “Legal Recognition of Same-sex Couples and Family Formation.” Demography, 52(1), 113-151. Trivers, R.L. (1972), “Parental Investment and Sexual Selection.” In B. Campbell (ed.), Sexual Selection and the Descent of Man: The Darwinian Pivot, 136-179. London, UK: Routledge and CRC Press. Tsuya, N.O., L.L. Bumpass, M.K. Choe, and R.R. Rindfuss (2005), “Is the Gender Division of Labor Changing in Japan?” Asian Population Studies, 1(1), 47-67. Wilson, W.J. (1987), The Truly Disadvantaged. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press. Wrenn, D.H., J. Yi, and B. Zhang (2019), “House Prices and Marriage Entry in China.” Regional Science and Urban Economics, 74, 118-130. Xie, J. and X. Hong (2022), “Research on Factors Affecting Chinese College Students' marriage Intention: Applying the Theory of Planned Behavior.” Frontiers in Psychology, Article 868275. Doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2022.868275 Yi, J. and J. Zhang (2010), “The Effect of House Price on Fertility: Evidence from Hong Kong.” Economic Inquiry, 48(3), 635-650. Yu, J. and Y. Xie (2015), “Changes in the Determinants of Marriage Entry in Post-Reform Urban China.” Demography, 52, 1869-1892. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-015-0432-z zh_TW
