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題名 有偶率與我國生育率和死亡率之關聯
The Relationship between Marriage and Fertility and Mortality Rates in Taiwan作者 許力升
HSU, Li-Sheng貢獻者 余清祥
Yue, Ching-Syang
許力升
HSU, Li-Sheng關鍵詞 婚姻狀態
生育率
死亡率
探索性資料分析
死亡率改善
Marital status
Fertility rate
Mortality rate
Exploratory data analysis
Mortality improvement日期 2024 上傳時間 4-九月-2024 14:57:46 (UTC+8) 摘要 隨著社會環境及醫療等因素的進步，各年齡死亡率隨著時間下降，平均壽命延長變成許多國家的共同現象，高齡化已是全球的未來趨勢，而生育率下降更加速了人口老化，勞動力不足衝擊我國的競爭力。東亞國家注重家庭價值，結婚是生育的前提，未婚生子的比例長年低於4%，近年臺灣有偶率下降幅度非常大，初次結婚年齡及生育年齡均逐年上升，成為我國生育率持續下降的主因。另外，婚姻也與壽命有關，許多研究發現未婚者的死亡率高於已婚者，甚至高於同齡的離婚或喪偶者。有鑑於有偶與生育、死亡的關聯，本文以臺灣歷年有偶率及相關資料為依據，探討不同婚姻狀態之下的死亡率、生育率，作為推估我國未來生育率及死亡率的參考。 本文的死亡率研究著重於不同婚姻狀態者的差異比較，尤其聚焦各種婚姻狀態的歷年變化，像是已婚者的平均餘命優勢是否隨著有偶率下降而加大；而生育率的研究則是透過探索性資料分析，分析初（再）婚年齡、夫妻年齡差異等，探討有偶率與生育率間的關聯。分析發現臺灣有偶率在各年齡都下降，又以生育主力的20～39歲女性族群下降幅度最大，加上每位婦女生育數也減少，意即晚婚、不婚、遲育同時造成我國生育率的下降。有偶者的死亡率仍然最低，幾乎所有年齡組都相同，優勢似乎有逐年擴大的趨勢；過去離婚及喪偶者的死亡率最高，但近年與單身者非常接近，離婚及喪偶者的Lee-Carter模型各年齡死亡改善率最低，尤其是60歲之前的年輕族群。
Due to advances in factors such as the environment and medical technology, the mortality rate has declined over time since the 20th century, and longer life span has become a common phenomenon in many countries. Ageing is the future trend of the world, and the decline in fertility rate will accelerate the population ageing and labor shortage. In recent years, Taiwan’s marriage rate has dropped significantly. The age at first marriage and the age of mothers at childbirth have both increased year by year, causing the decline of fertility rates. Marriage is also related to life expectancy and many studies found that the mortality rates of single people are higher than those of married people of the same age. In this study, we explore marital data in Taiwan as a reference for projecting future fertility and mortality rates. In addition to the connection between fertility rates and marriage, we aim to compare the trend of mortality rates for people in different marital statuses and evaluate whether the married people still enjoy longer lives. The analysis results show that Taiwan’s marriage rates have been declining for all ages, especially for the group of ages 20 to 39, which causes Taiwan’s fertility rates continue to decline. The mortality rates of married people are still the lowest, which is the same for almost all age groups. The mortality rates of divorced and widowed people were the highest in the past, but they are very close to those of single people now. However, the divorced and widowed people have the lowest mortality improvement at all ages if we apply the Lee-Carter model.參考文獻 參考文獻 ㄧ、 中文部份 方新惟（2000），「家庭生育決策之因素分析」，東華大學國際經濟研究所碩士論文。 孔祥明、袁詠蓁（2022），「結婚不結婚：臺灣適婚年齡者進入婚姻與否的考量因素」，《人口學刊》，64，1-49。 余清祥（1998），「婚姻能延長壽命嗎--臺灣與美國的實證資料研究」，《壽險季刊》，107，91-104。 吳惠萍（2012），「臺灣已婚婦女生育子女因素決策分析」，中央大學產業經濟研究所碩士論文。 呂靖翎（2023），「以標準化死亡率估計平均餘命」，政治大學統計學系碩士論文。 陳俊全、李美玲（1997），「婚姻狀態對平均餘命的影響」，《人口學刊》，18，19-38。 陳寬政、李大正、楊靜利（2006），「臺灣傳統婚配空間的變化與婚姻行為之變遷」，《人口學刊》，33，1-32。 陳寬政（2013），「臺灣的人口老化」，《臺灣經濟論衡》，11，35-43。 張君瑋（2023），「Lee-Carter模型於小區域人口的探討」，政治大學統計學系碩士論文。 黃意萍、余清祥（2002），「臺灣地區生育率推估方法的研究」，《人口學刊》，25，145-171。 曾一翔（2014），「婚姻狀況與疾病、死亡發生率之研究」，真理大學統計與精算學系碩士論文。 楊靜利、劉一龍（2002），「臺灣的家庭生活歷程」，《臺灣社會學刊》，27，77-105。 楊靜利、李大正、陳寬政（2005），「臺灣傳統婚配空間的變化與婚姻行為之變遷」，《人口學刊》，33，1-32。 楊靜利、黃奕綺、蔡宏政、王香蘋（2012），「臺灣外籍配偶與本籍配偶的生育數量與品質」，《人文及社會科學集刊》，24，83-120。 劉一龍、王德睦（2005），「臺灣地區總生育率的分析: 完成生育率與生育步調之變化」，《人口學刊》，30，97-123。 劉君雅、鄧志松、唐代彪（2009），「臺灣低生育率之空間分析」，《人口學刊》，39，119-155。 賴思帆、余清祥（2008），「臺灣與各國生育率模型之實證與模擬比較」，《人口學刊》，33，33-59。 駱明慶（2007），「臺灣總生育率下降的表象與實際」，《研究臺灣》，3，38-60。 藍銘偉、余清祥（2003），「臺灣地區生育率模型之研究」，《人口學刊》，27， 105-131。 二、 英文部份 Anson, O. (1989). “Marital Status and Woman’s Health Revisited: The importance of a Proximate Adult,” Journal of Marriage and the Family 51(1), 185-194. Bulloch, A. G. M., Williams, J. V. A., Lavorato, D. H. and Patten, S. B (2017). “The Depression and Marital Status Relationship is Modified by Both Age and Gender,” Journal of Affective Disorders 223(1): 65-68. Buckman, J. E. J., Saunders, R., Stott, J., Arundell, L.-L., O’Driscoll, C., Davies, M. R., Eley, T. C., Hollon, S. D., Kendrick, T., Ambler, G., Cohen, Z. D., Watkins, E., Gilbody, S., Wiles, N., Kessler, D., Richards, D., Brabyn, S., Littlewood, E., DeRubeis, R. J., Lewis, G. and Pilling, S. (2021). “Role of Age, Gender and Marital Status in Prognosis for Adults with Depression: An Individual Patient Data Meta-analysis,” Epidemiology and Psychiatric Sciences 30(42): 1-13. Cho, H.-J., Khang, Y.-H., Jun, H.-J. and Kawachi, I. (2008). “Marital Status and Smoking in Korea: The Influence of Gender and Age,” Social Science & Medicine 66(3): 609-619. Goldman, N. (1993). “Marriage Selection and Mortality Patterns: Inferences and Fallacies,” Demography 30(2): 189-208. Hu, Y. and Goldman, N. (1990). “Mortality Differentials by Marital Status: An International Comparison,” Demography 27(2), 233-250. Huijts, T. and Kraaykamp, G. (2011). “Marital Status, Nation Marital Status Composition, and Self-assessed Health,” European Societies 13(2): 279-305. Hsu, T.-L., and Barrett, A. E. (2020). “The Association between Marital Status and Psychological Well-being: Variation across Negative and Positive Dimensions,” Journal of Family Issues 41(11): 2179-2202. Jia, H. and Lubetkin, E.I. (2020). “Life Expectancy and Active Life Expectancy by Marital Status among Older U.S. Adults: Results from the U.S. Medicare Health Outcome Survey (HOS),” SSM-Population Health 12. Johnson, N.J., Backlund E., Sorlie, P.D. and Loveless, C.A. (2000). “Marital Status and Mortality: The National Longitudinal Mortality Study,” Annals of Epidemiology 10(4), 224-238. Lagergren, J., Andersson, G., Talba ̈ck, M., Drefahl, S., Bihagen, E., Ha ̈rko ̈nen, J., Feychting, M. and Ljung, R. (2016). “Marital Status, Education, and Income in Relation to the Risk of Esophageal and Gastric Cancer by Histological Type and Site,” Cancer 122(2): 207-212. Lee, J., Shin, A., Cho, S., Choi, J.-Y., Kang, D. and Lee, J.-K., (2020). “Marital Status and the Prevalence of Obesity in a Korean Population,” Obesity Research & Clinical Practice 14(3): 217-224. Müller-Lyer, F. C. (1930). “The Evolution of Modern Marriage,” Social Service Review 4(4). Manzoli, L., Villari, P., Pirone, G. M. and Boccia, A., (2007). “Marital Status and Mortality in the Elderly: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis,” Social Science & Medicine 64(1): 77-94. Murphy, M., Grundy, E. and Kalogirou, S. (2007). “The Increase in Marital Status Differences in Mortality up to the Oldest Age in Seven European Countries 1990-99,” Population Studies 61(3), 287-298. Ndayambaje, E., Pierewan, A. C., Nizeyumukiza, E., Nkundimana, B. and Ayriza, Y. (2020). “Marital Status and Subjective Well-being: Does Education Level Take Into Account,” Cakrawala Pendidikan 39(1). Trowbridge, C. L. (1994). “Mortality Rate by Marital Status,” Transactions of Society of Actuaries 46: 99-122. Tatangelo, G., McCabe, M., Campbell, S. and Szoeke, C. (2017). “Gender, Marital Status and Longevity,” Maturitas 100: 64-69. Wang, H. and Yue, C.J. (2015). “Mortality, Health, and Marriage: A Study based on Taiwan's Population Data,” North American Actuarial Journal 19(3): 187-199. Wang, H., Yue, C.J. and Tsai, Y. (2016). “Marital Status as a Risk Factor in Life Insurance: An Empirical Study in Taiwan,” Astin Bulletin 46(2): 487-505. Wang, Y., Jiao, Y., Nie, J., O'Neil, A., Huang, W., Zhang, L., Han, J., Liu, H., Zhu, Y., Yu, C. and Woodward, M. (2020). “Sex Differences in the Association between Marital Status and the Risk of Cardiovascular, Cancer, and All-cause Mortality: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of 7,881,040 Individuals,” Global health research and policy 5: 4. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
統計學系
111354032資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111354032 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 余清祥 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Yue, Ching-Syang en_US dc.contributor.author (作者) 許力升 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (作者) HSU, Li-Sheng en_US dc.creator (作者) 許力升 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) HSU, Li-Sheng en_US dc.date (日期) 2024 en_US dc.date.accessioned 4-九月-2024 14:57:46 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 4-九月-2024 14:57:46 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 4-九月-2024 14:57:46 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) G0111354032 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/153371 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 統計學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 111354032 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 隨著社會環境及醫療等因素的進步，各年齡死亡率隨著時間下降，平均壽命延長變成許多國家的共同現象，高齡化已是全球的未來趨勢，而生育率下降更加速了人口老化，勞動力不足衝擊我國的競爭力。東亞國家注重家庭價值，結婚是生育的前提，未婚生子的比例長年低於4%，近年臺灣有偶率下降幅度非常大，初次結婚年齡及生育年齡均逐年上升，成為我國生育率持續下降的主因。另外，婚姻也與壽命有關，許多研究發現未婚者的死亡率高於已婚者，甚至高於同齡的離婚或喪偶者。有鑑於有偶與生育、死亡的關聯，本文以臺灣歷年有偶率及相關資料為依據，探討不同婚姻狀態之下的死亡率、生育率，作為推估我國未來生育率及死亡率的參考。 本文的死亡率研究著重於不同婚姻狀態者的差異比較，尤其聚焦各種婚姻狀態的歷年變化，像是已婚者的平均餘命優勢是否隨著有偶率下降而加大；而生育率的研究則是透過探索性資料分析，分析初（再）婚年齡、夫妻年齡差異等，探討有偶率與生育率間的關聯。分析發現臺灣有偶率在各年齡都下降，又以生育主力的20～39歲女性族群下降幅度最大，加上每位婦女生育數也減少，意即晚婚、不婚、遲育同時造成我國生育率的下降。有偶者的死亡率仍然最低，幾乎所有年齡組都相同，優勢似乎有逐年擴大的趨勢；過去離婚及喪偶者的死亡率最高，但近年與單身者非常接近，離婚及喪偶者的Lee-Carter模型各年齡死亡改善率最低，尤其是60歲之前的年輕族群。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) Due to advances in factors such as the environment and medical technology, the mortality rate has declined over time since the 20th century, and longer life span has become a common phenomenon in many countries. Ageing is the future trend of the world, and the decline in fertility rate will accelerate the population ageing and labor shortage. In recent years, Taiwan’s marriage rate has dropped significantly. The age at first marriage and the age of mothers at childbirth have both increased year by year, causing the decline of fertility rates. Marriage is also related to life expectancy and many studies found that the mortality rates of single people are higher than those of married people of the same age. In this study, we explore marital data in Taiwan as a reference for projecting future fertility and mortality rates. In addition to the connection between fertility rates and marriage, we aim to compare the trend of mortality rates for people in different marital statuses and evaluate whether the married people still enjoy longer lives. The analysis results show that Taiwan’s marriage rates have been declining for all ages, especially for the group of ages 20 to 39, which causes Taiwan’s fertility rates continue to decline. The mortality rates of married people are still the lowest, which is the same for almost all age groups. The mortality rates of divorced and widowed people were the highest in the past, but they are very close to those of single people now. However, the divorced and widowed people have the lowest mortality improvement at all ages if we apply the Lee-Carter model. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章、緒論 1 第一節、研究動機 1 第二節、研究目的 5 第二章、文獻回顧與研究方法 6 第一節、文獻回顧 6 第二節、資料介紹 11 第三節、研究方法 13 第三章、有偶率的分析 20 第一節、歷年臺灣婚姻狀態 20 第二節、人口密度與教育程度 28 第四章、有偶率與生育率之關聯 34 第一節、生育率 34 第二節、女性有偶率 38 第三節、嬰幼兒死亡率 42 第五章、有偶率與死亡率之關聯 46 第一節、婚姻別死亡率 46 第二節、婚姻死亡率趨勢 52 第三節、平均餘命與純保費 57 第六章、結論與建議 64 第一節、結論 64 第二節、研究限制與建議 67 參考文獻 69 附錄一、婚姻狀態 74 附錄二、不同利率下純保費 77 zh_TW dc.format.extent 12911450 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111354032 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 婚姻狀態 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 生育率 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 死亡率 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 探索性資料分析 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 死亡率改善 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Marital status en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Fertility rate en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Mortality rate en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Exploratory data analysis en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Mortality improvement en_US dc.title (題名) 有偶率與我國生育率和死亡率之關聯 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The Relationship between Marriage and Fertility and Mortality Rates in Taiwan en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 參考文獻 ㄧ、 中文部份 方新惟（2000），「家庭生育決策之因素分析」，東華大學國際經濟研究所碩士論文。 孔祥明、袁詠蓁（2022），「結婚不結婚：臺灣適婚年齡者進入婚姻與否的考量因素」，《人口學刊》，64，1-49。 余清祥（1998），「婚姻能延長壽命嗎--臺灣與美國的實證資料研究」，《壽險季刊》，107，91-104。 吳惠萍（2012），「臺灣已婚婦女生育子女因素決策分析」，中央大學產業經濟研究所碩士論文。 呂靖翎（2023），「以標準化死亡率估計平均餘命」，政治大學統計學系碩士論文。 陳俊全、李美玲（1997），「婚姻狀態對平均餘命的影響」，《人口學刊》，18，19-38。 陳寬政、李大正、楊靜利（2006），「臺灣傳統婚配空間的變化與婚姻行為之變遷」，《人口學刊》，33，1-32。 陳寬政（2013），「臺灣的人口老化」，《臺灣經濟論衡》，11，35-43。 張君瑋（2023），「Lee-Carter模型於小區域人口的探討」，政治大學統計學系碩士論文。 黃意萍、余清祥（2002），「臺灣地區生育率推估方法的研究」，《人口學刊》，25，145-171。 曾一翔（2014），「婚姻狀況與疾病、死亡發生率之研究」，真理大學統計與精算學系碩士論文。 楊靜利、劉一龍（2002），「臺灣的家庭生活歷程」，《臺灣社會學刊》，27，77-105。 楊靜利、李大正、陳寬政（2005），「臺灣傳統婚配空間的變化與婚姻行為之變遷」，《人口學刊》，33，1-32。 楊靜利、黃奕綺、蔡宏政、王香蘋（2012），「臺灣外籍配偶與本籍配偶的生育數量與品質」，《人文及社會科學集刊》，24，83-120。 劉一龍、王德睦（2005），「臺灣地區總生育率的分析: 完成生育率與生育步調之變化」，《人口學刊》，30，97-123。 劉君雅、鄧志松、唐代彪（2009），「臺灣低生育率之空間分析」，《人口學刊》，39，119-155。 賴思帆、余清祥（2008），「臺灣與各國生育率模型之實證與模擬比較」，《人口學刊》，33，33-59。 駱明慶（2007），「臺灣總生育率下降的表象與實際」，《研究臺灣》，3，38-60。 藍銘偉、余清祥（2003），「臺灣地區生育率模型之研究」，《人口學刊》，27， 105-131。 二、 英文部份 Anson, O. 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