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題名 中巴貿易對巴西經濟發展的影響：機遇還是威脅？
The Impact of Sino-Brazilian Trade on Brazil Industrial Development: Opportunity or Threat?作者 安德烈
Dejuste, Andre Moraes貢獻者 林左裕<br>徐士勛<br>-
Tsoyu Calvin Lin<br>Shih-Hsun Hsu<br>Silvina Helena Galvao de Miranda
安德烈
Andre Moraes Dejuste關鍵詞 巴西
中國
貿易
工業
農業
製造業中間產品
Brazil
China
Trade
Industry
Agriculture
Manufactured Intermediary Goods日期 2024 上傳時間 4-九月-2024 15:18:37 (UTC+8) 摘要 工業部門在經濟發展中扮演著重要角色。然而在巴西，該部門的地位數十年來一直在下降，這在政治和學術界引發了廣泛討論。與此同時，自2013年起，中國成為巴西的主要貿易夥伴，佔巴西貿易總額的約17%，兩國之間的雙邊貿易量不斷增長，凸顯出中國對巴西經濟的重要性。本研究採使用自我迴歸落遲模型（ARDL），並利用1997年至2023年的季度數據評估中巴貿易對巴西工業部門的影響。研究結果表明，對中國農產品出口在短期內對巴西工業表現有積極影響，部分抵消了這種日益增長的貿易模式，所帶來的潛在出口“再初級化”負面影響。目前沒有證據表明中國製造業進口威脅到巴西的工業部門。然而，中間製成品的總進口對巴西該部門的工業發展產生了負面影響。在這背景下，巴西製造業面臨著機遇和挑戰，突顯出巴西政府需要進行戰略規劃，以駕馭這些複雜性，並最大化中巴貿易關係帶來的收益。
The industrial sector plays a significant role in economic development. However, in Brazil, this sector has seen a decline in importance over decades, sparking debate in political and academic circles. Concurrently, since 2013, when China emerged as Brazil’s major trade partner - accounting for about 17% of Brazil’s total trade - the volume of bilateral trade between the two countries has continuously increased, emphasizing China’s growing significance to the Brazilian economy. This study uses an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) with quarterly data from 1997 to 2023 to assess Sino-Brazilian trade impacts on Brazil’s industrial sector. Findings show that agricultural exports to China positively affect Brazilian industrial performance in the short run, partially offsetting potential exports’ re-primarization negative effects of this increasing trade pattern for Brazil. No evidence suggests that Chinese manufacturing imports threaten Brazil’s industrial segment. 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國立政治大學
亞太研究英語博士學位學程(IDAS)
102265510資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0102265510 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 林左裕<br>徐士勛<br>- zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Tsoyu Calvin Lin<br>Shih-Hsun Hsu<br>Silvina Helena Galvao de Miranda en_US dc.contributor.author (作者) 安德烈 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (作者) Andre Moraes Dejuste en_US dc.creator (作者) 安德烈 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Dejuste, Andre Moraes en_US dc.date (日期) 2024 en_US dc.date.accessioned 4-九月-2024 15:18:37 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 4-九月-2024 15:18:37 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 4-九月-2024 15:18:37 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) G0102265510 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/153458 - dc.description (描述) 博士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 亞太研究英語博士學位學程(IDAS) zh_TW dc.description (描述) 102265510 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 工業部門在經濟發展中扮演著重要角色。然而在巴西，該部門的地位數十年來一直在下降，這在政治和學術界引發了廣泛討論。與此同時，自2013年起，中國成為巴西的主要貿易夥伴，佔巴西貿易總額的約17%，兩國之間的雙邊貿易量不斷增長，凸顯出中國對巴西經濟的重要性。本研究採使用自我迴歸落遲模型（ARDL），並利用1997年至2023年的季度數據評估中巴貿易對巴西工業部門的影響。研究結果表明，對中國農產品出口在短期內對巴西工業表現有積極影響，部分抵消了這種日益增長的貿易模式，所帶來的潛在出口“再初級化”負面影響。目前沒有證據表明中國製造業進口威脅到巴西的工業部門。然而，中間製成品的總進口對巴西該部門的工業發展產生了負面影響。在這背景下，巴西製造業面臨著機遇和挑戰，突顯出巴西政府需要進行戰略規劃，以駕馭這些複雜性，並最大化中巴貿易關係帶來的收益。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) The industrial sector plays a significant role in economic development. However, in Brazil, this sector has seen a decline in importance over decades, sparking debate in political and academic circles. Concurrently, since 2013, when China emerged as Brazil’s major trade partner - accounting for about 17% of Brazil’s total trade - the volume of bilateral trade between the two countries has continuously increased, emphasizing China’s growing significance to the Brazilian economy. This study uses an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) with quarterly data from 1997 to 2023 to assess Sino-Brazilian trade impacts on Brazil’s industrial sector. Findings show that agricultural exports to China positively affect Brazilian industrial performance in the short run, partially offsetting potential exports’ re-primarization negative effects of this increasing trade pattern for Brazil. No evidence suggests that Chinese manufacturing imports threaten Brazil’s industrial segment. However, intermediary manufactured goods total imports negatively impact the industrial development of this sector in Brazil. This context presents both opportunities and challenges for the Brazilian manufacturing sector, highlighting the need for strategic planning by the Brazilian government to navigate these complexities and maximize the benefits of the trade relationship with China. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 1. Introduction .......................... 1 2. Literature Review .......................... 5 3. Sino-Brazilian Trade Pattern & Brazilian Manufacturing Sector Evolution .......................... 15 4. Brazil and China: Political and International Relations Background .......................... 35 5. Methodology .......................... 38 5.1. Variables Conceptual Specification .......................... 38 5.2. Modeling and Data .......................... 46 6. Results and Discussion .......................... 54 6.1. Unit Roots Tests .......................... 54 6.2. ARDL Bounds Test .......................... 56 6.3. Short and Long-run Results .......................... 58 6.4. Model Robustness .......................... 66 7. Conclusion .......................... 69 8. Policy brief history and Recommendation .......................... 71 9. Research restrictions and Limitations .......................... 74 10. Implications for Future Research .......................... 76 REFERENCES .......................... 77 zh_TW dc.format.extent 5275912 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0102265510 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 巴西 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 中國 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 貿易 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 工業 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 農業 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 製造業中間產品 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Brazil en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) China en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Trade en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Industry en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Agriculture en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Manufactured Intermediary Goods en_US dc.title (題名) 中巴貿易對巴西經濟發展的影響：機遇還是威脅？ zh_TW dc.title (題名) The Impact of Sino-Brazilian Trade on Brazil Industrial Development: Opportunity or Threat? en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Alderson, Arthur S. 1999. "Explaining Deindustrialization: Globalization, Failure, or Success?" 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