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題名 利用合成控制法論證中國加入WTO的經濟影響
The economic impact of China's accession to the World Trade Organization: Evidence from synthetic control method作者 陳俊佑
CHEN, CHUN-YU貢獻者 楊子霆
Yang Tzu-Ting
陳俊佑
CHEN CHUN-YU關鍵詞 合成控制法
中國加入世貿組織
中國經濟增長
synthetic control method
China’s WTO accession
China’s economic growth日期 2024 上傳時間 4-九月-2024 15:19:01 (UTC+8) 摘要 本文采用合成控制法（SCM）来驗證中国加入世贸组织與其经济增长的因果關係。此外，还研究了中国加入世贸组织對中国的关键经济指标的影响。用于衡量经济增长的主要结果变量是1992年至2007年期间的人均GDP累计增长率。研究结果显示，中国加入世贸组织对该国经济增长，即人均GDP增长率，产生了显著的积极影响。加入WTO對其餘个关键经济指标的影響有所不同：消费、投资、政府支出、净出口、进口、出口、贸易开放度和外国直接投资。值得注意的是，出口在所有时期都表现出显著的积极效果，而进口和贸易开放度仅在短期内表现出显著的积极效果。政府支出和消费显示出积极但不显著的影响。投资的结果在图形上显著，但安慰剂测试的结果不显著。
This paper employs the synthetic control method (SCM) to estimate the causal effects that China’s accession to the WTO has had on its economic growth. In addition, I also investigate how China’s key economic indicator is impacted by the country’s WTO entry. The main outcome variable for economic growth is the cumulative growth rate of GDP per capita from 1992 to 2007. The study’s results demonstrate a significant positive effect of China’s WTO accession on the country’s economic growth, that is its GDP per capita growth rate. The impact varies across several key economic indicators: consumption, investment, government expenditure, net export, import, export, trade openness and foreign direct investment. Notably, exports exhibit significant positive effects in all periods, while imports and trade openness show significant positive effects only in the short term. Government expenditure and consumption show positive but insignificant effects. The investment results are graphically significant, whereas the placebo-test results are insignificant.參考文獻 Abadie, A., Diamond, A., and Hainmueller, J. (2010). Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: Estimating the effect of california’s tobacco control program. Journal of the American statistical Association, 105(490):493–505. Abadie, A., Diamond, A., and Hainmueller, J. (2015). Comparative politics and the synthetic control method. American Journal of Political Science, 59(2):495–510. Abadie, A. and Gardeazabal, J. (2003). The economic costs of conflict: A case study of the basque country. American economic review, 93(1):113–132. Bilgel, F. and Karahasan, B. C. (2019). Thirty years of conflict and economic growth in turkey: A synthetic control approach. Defence and Peace Economics, 30(5):609–631. Billmeier, A. and Nannicini, T. (2013). Assessing economic liberalization episodes: A synthetic control approach. Review of Economics and Statistics, 95(3):983–1001. Bramall, C. (2009a). Chinese capitalism since 1996. Routledge. Bramall, C. (2009b). The era of market socialism, 1978–1996. Routledge. Bramall, C. (2009c). Foreign trade and inward investment since 1971. pages 360–394. Castellucci, I. (2011). Reflections on the legal features of the socialist market economy in china. Frontiers of Law in China, 6(3):343–368. Cheng Hsiao, H. S. C. (2011). An analysis of china’s economic growth: The effects of the wto and the rcep. Pacific Economic Review, 16(3):285–301. Echevarría Olave, C. Á. and García Enríquez, J. (2019). The economic consequences of the libyan spring: A synthetic control analysis. Esteve-Pérez, S., Gil-Pareja, S., and Llorca-Vivero, R. (2020). Does the gatt/wto promote trade? after all, rose was right. Review of World Economics, 156(2):377–405. Gao, H. (2022). China’s changing perspective on the wto: From aspiration, assimilation to alienation. World Trade Review, 21(3):342–358. Gilchrist, D., Emery, T., Garoupa, N., and Spruk, R. (2023). Synthetic control method: A tool for comparative case studies in economic history. Journal of Economic Surveys, 37(2):409–445. H.Steve Ching, C. H. (2011). Economic benefits of globalization: The impact of entry to the wto on china’s growth. Pacific Economic Review, 916:285–301. Jardón, A., Kuik, O., and Tol, R. S. (2020). Causal effects of petrocaribe on sustainable development: a synthetic control analysis. The Manchester School, 88(1):156–210. Li, S. and Zhai, F. (2000). The impact of accession to wto on china’s economy. Development Research Centre, The State Council, People’s Republic of China, mimeo, pages 1–20. Ling Feng, Z. L. (2017). Trade policy uncertainty and exports: Evidence from china’s wto accession. Journal of International Economics, 106:20–36. Lu, N. (1996). Reform of china’s foreign exchange system in 1994. In Inflation and Growth in China. International Monetary Fund. Morrison, W. M. (2008). China-us trade issues. Nikkei Asia (2021). China’s trade with world surges ninefold after 20 years in wto. Online available at: https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/ China-s-trade-with-world-surges-ninefold-after-20-years-in-WTO. (accessed: 2024/05/01). Peng Su, X. J. (2019). Insufficient consumption demand of chinese urban residents: An explanation of the consumption structure effect from income distribution change. MDPI-Sustainabilit. (accessed: 2024/05/01). Ram, R. and Ural, S. (2014). Comparison of gdp per capita data in penn world table and world development indicators. Social indicators research, 116:639–646. Rose, A. K. (2004). Do we really know that the wto increases trade? American economic review, 94(1):98–114. Suwanprasert, W. (2023). Consequences of thailand’s 2006 military coup: Evidence from the synthetic control method. European Journal of Political Economy, 80:102475. Uhr, D. A., Uhr, J. G., and Ely, R. A. (2017). A synthetic control approach on chile’s transition to democracy. Economics Bulletin, 37(3):1–16. Walmsley, T. L., Hertel, T. W., and Ianchovichina, E. (2006). Assessing the impact of china’s wto accession on investment. Pacific Economic Review, 11(3):315–339. Yueyun Chen, N. Q. (2022). Economic benefits of globalization: The impact of entry to the wto on china’s growth. International Journal of Business and Economic, 7(2):17–35. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
亞太研究英語碩士學位學程(IMAS)
107926006資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107926006 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 楊子霆 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Yang Tzu-Ting en_US dc.contributor.author (作者) 陳俊佑 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (作者) CHEN CHUN-YU en_US dc.creator (作者) 陳俊佑 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) CHEN, CHUN-YU en_US dc.date (日期) 2024 en_US dc.date.accessioned 4-九月-2024 15:19:01 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 4-九月-2024 15:19:01 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 4-九月-2024 15:19:01 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) G0107926006 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/153460 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 亞太研究英語碩士學位學程(IMAS) zh_TW dc.description (描述) 107926006 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本文采用合成控制法（SCM）来驗證中国加入世贸组织與其经济增长的因果關係。此外，还研究了中国加入世贸组织對中国的关键经济指标的影响。用于衡量经济增长的主要结果变量是1992年至2007年期间的人均GDP累计增长率。研究结果显示，中国加入世贸组织对该国经济增长，即人均GDP增长率，产生了显著的积极影响。加入WTO對其餘个关键经济指标的影響有所不同：消费、投资、政府支出、净出口、进口、出口、贸易开放度和外国直接投资。值得注意的是，出口在所有时期都表现出显著的积极效果，而进口和贸易开放度仅在短期内表现出显著的积极效果。政府支出和消费显示出积极但不显著的影响。投资的结果在图形上显著，但安慰剂测试的结果不显著。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) This paper employs the synthetic control method (SCM) to estimate the causal effects that China’s accession to the WTO has had on its economic growth. In addition, I also investigate how China’s key economic indicator is impacted by the country’s WTO entry. The main outcome variable for economic growth is the cumulative growth rate of GDP per capita from 1992 to 2007. The study’s results demonstrate a significant positive effect of China’s WTO accession on the country’s economic growth, that is its GDP per capita growth rate. The impact varies across several key economic indicators: consumption, investment, government expenditure, net export, import, export, trade openness and foreign direct investment. Notably, exports exhibit significant positive effects in all periods, while imports and trade openness show significant positive effects only in the short term. Government expenditure and consumption show positive but insignificant effects. The investment results are graphically significant, whereas the placebo-test results are insignificant. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 1 Introduction 1 2 Background 3 2.1 An overview of the US–China Trade War . . . . . . . 3 2.2 The US-China-Taiwan trading relation . . . . . . . 4 3 Literature Review 7 3.1 Trade effects of import barriers . . . . . . . . . 7 3.2 Macroeconomic effects of the US-China trade war . . 8 4 Date and empirical Method 11 4.1 The Synthetic Control Method . . . . . . . . . . . 11 4.2 Synthetic Control Method 13 5 Data and Samples 16 6 Results 28 Reference 31 A Appendix 34 zh_TW dc.format.extent 6046822 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107926006 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 合成控制法 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 中國加入世貿組織 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 中國經濟增長 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) synthetic control method en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) China’s WTO accession en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) China’s economic growth en_US dc.title (題名) 利用合成控制法論證中國加入WTO的經濟影響 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The economic impact of China's accession to the World Trade Organization: Evidence from synthetic control method en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Abadie, A., Diamond, A., and Hainmueller, J. (2010). Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: Estimating the effect of california’s tobacco control program. Journal of the American statistical Association, 105(490):493–505. Abadie, A., Diamond, A., and Hainmueller, J. (2015). Comparative politics and the synthetic control method. American Journal of Political Science, 59(2):495–510. Abadie, A. and Gardeazabal, J. (2003). The economic costs of conflict: A case study of the basque country. American economic review, 93(1):113–132. Bilgel, F. and Karahasan, B. C. (2019). Thirty years of conflict and economic growth in turkey: A synthetic control approach. Defence and Peace Economics, 30(5):609–631. Billmeier, A. and Nannicini, T. (2013). Assessing economic liberalization episodes: A synthetic control approach. Review of Economics and Statistics, 95(3):983–1001. Bramall, C. (2009a). Chinese capitalism since 1996. Routledge. Bramall, C. (2009b). The era of market socialism, 1978–1996. Routledge. Bramall, C. (2009c). Foreign trade and inward investment since 1971. pages 360–394. Castellucci, I. (2011). Reflections on the legal features of the socialist market economy in china. Frontiers of Law in China, 6(3):343–368. Cheng Hsiao, H. S. C. (2011). An analysis of china’s economic growth: The effects of the wto and the rcep. Pacific Economic Review, 16(3):285–301. Echevarría Olave, C. Á. and García Enríquez, J. (2019). The economic consequences of the libyan spring: A synthetic control analysis. Esteve-Pérez, S., Gil-Pareja, S., and Llorca-Vivero, R. (2020). Does the gatt/wto promote trade? after all, rose was right. Review of World Economics, 156(2):377–405. Gao, H. (2022). China’s changing perspective on the wto: From aspiration, assimilation to alienation. World Trade Review, 21(3):342–358. Gilchrist, D., Emery, T., Garoupa, N., and Spruk, R. (2023). Synthetic control method: A tool for comparative case studies in economic history. Journal of Economic Surveys, 37(2):409–445. H.Steve Ching, C. H. (2011). Economic benefits of globalization: The impact of entry to the wto on china’s growth. Pacific Economic Review, 916:285–301. Jardón, A., Kuik, O., and Tol, R. S. (2020). Causal effects of petrocaribe on sustainable development: a synthetic control analysis. The Manchester School, 88(1):156–210. Li, S. and Zhai, F. (2000). The impact of accession to wto on china’s economy. Development Research Centre, The State Council, People’s Republic of China, mimeo, pages 1–20. Ling Feng, Z. L. (2017). Trade policy uncertainty and exports: Evidence from china’s wto accession. Journal of International Economics, 106:20–36. Lu, N. (1996). Reform of china’s foreign exchange system in 1994. In Inflation and Growth in China. International Monetary Fund. Morrison, W. M. (2008). China-us trade issues. Nikkei Asia (2021). China’s trade with world surges ninefold after 20 years in wto. Online available at: https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/ China-s-trade-with-world-surges-ninefold-after-20-years-in-WTO. (accessed: 2024/05/01). Peng Su, X. J. (2019). Insufficient consumption demand of chinese urban residents: An explanation of the consumption structure effect from income distribution change. MDPI-Sustainabilit. (accessed: 2024/05/01). Ram, R. and Ural, S. (2014). Comparison of gdp per capita data in penn world table and world development indicators. Social indicators research, 116:639–646. Rose, A. K. (2004). Do we really know that the wto increases trade? American economic review, 94(1):98–114. Suwanprasert, W. (2023). Consequences of thailand’s 2006 military coup: Evidence from the synthetic control method. European Journal of Political Economy, 80:102475. Uhr, D. A., Uhr, J. G., and Ely, R. A. (2017). A synthetic control approach on chile’s transition to democracy. Economics Bulletin, 37(3):1–16. Walmsley, T. L., Hertel, T. W., and Ianchovichina, E. (2006). Assessing the impact of china’s wto accession on investment. Pacific Economic Review, 11(3):315–339. Yueyun Chen, N. Q. (2022). Economic benefits of globalization: The impact of entry to the wto on china’s growth. International Journal of Business and Economic, 7(2):17–35. zh_TW
