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題名 西方與俄國競逐下的烏克蘭外交與安全政策選擇：以國內政治與國際因素分析
Ukraine’s Foreign and Security Policy Choices Under the Competition Between the West and Russia: An Analysis of Domestic Politics and International Factors作者 胡瀚雯
Hu, Han-Wen貢獻者 林超琦
Lin, Chao-Chi
胡瀚雯
Hu, Han-Wen關鍵詞 烏克蘭
地緣政治
中小型國家
外交與安全政策
俄羅斯
Ukraine
Geopolitics
Middle-and-Small Powers
Diplomatic and Security Policies
Russia日期 2024 上傳時間 4-九月-2024 15:58:18 (UTC+8) 摘要 1991年蘇聯瓦解後，烏克蘭獨立為主權國家。在歷經幾次國內重大選舉後，烏克蘭的民主化過程逐漸深耕，並以總統為國家主要決策者，影響著國內政局與國家對外政策。21世紀以來，隨著歐盟、北約的崛起和俄羅斯大國地位的復興，歐盟、北約與俄羅斯的競爭關係日漸成形，位於兩強中間地帶的烏克蘭，由於擁有極其關鍵的地緣政治與戰略地位重要性，於政治、經濟、軍事等外交與安全政策上，亦無法避免被週遭兩強所影響。除了國際因素外，作為一個擁有民主選舉的主權國家，其國內政治情勢亦是影響其外交與安全政策的重要關鍵因素。 本文之研究主軸以烏克蘭雙首長制下的主要外交與安全政策決策者「總統」出發，以不同總統任期為區分觀察，去探討不同時期的外交與安全政策選擇與變化。首先關注烏克蘭的國際結構因素，繼而分析烏克蘭外部的兩大國際強權，如何透過不同的策略與手段，影響烏克蘭外交與安全政策的選擇。再從國內政治結構出發，探討烏克蘭國內的不同政治行為者，如何促使與導致外交與安全政策的決策結果。本文研究發現，為爭取國家最大利益及政權延續，總統於其任內會嘗試發展多元、自主的外交政策，以滿足最多選民的政策期待。然而，由於烏克蘭國際結構因素與國內政治結構的歐俄對抗局勢，總統被迫在國內外的歐俄對抗之下，進行外交與安全政策的親歐、親俄立場選擇。若是國際結構因素與國內政治結構的歐俄對抗局勢僅有其一存在，不論是哪個，總統都會選擇維持與前任相同的外交與安全政策立場，只有在國際結構因素與國內政治結構都呈現歐俄對抗的局勢時，才會促使總統在國內政治競爭的壓力下，採取與前任截然不同的外交與安全政策立場，並於其任內維持一致，最終導致了烏克蘭外交與安全政策在1999年至2014年總統任期間的常態性變動特色。
Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine became an independent and sovereign state. After going through several significant election campaigns, democratization has been continuing to take root in the country, with the president as the primary policy maker who plays an influential role in politics within the country and diplomacy to other countries. Following the 21st century, along with the rise of European Union and NATO as well as the revitalization of Russia as a great power, the competition between them began to take shape. Due to its critical geopolitical and strategic position, Ukraine, in the middle of the two powers, cannot avoid the impacts from both sides in terms of decision of the diplomatic and security policies, like politics, economy and military. In addition to international factors, as a sovereign country with democracy and elections, the political atmosphere within Ukraine is also a key to its diplomatic and security policies. This study aims to start from the president of Ukraine, who is the primary diplomatic and security policy maker of this dual executive republic. By observing the tenure of each president throughout the years to explore the choices and changes of diplomatic and security policies in different periods. Firstly, looked into the international structural factors of Ukraine in order to analyze how the two great powers outside of Ukraine have affected its choices of the diplomatic and security policies with different strategy and method. Then, from its political structure, discussed how the different political behaviors within Ukraine have prompted to the results of those choices. The study found that, in order to earn the maximum interest for the nation as well as the stability of their political power, the presidents would try to develop diplomatic policies with diversity and autonomy, thereby satisfying expectations of the majority of voters. However, in the situation where competition between Europe and Russia affects Ukraine’s international structural factors and national political structure, the presidents are forced to choose a side in terms of diplomatic and security policies. If only one, either international structural factors or national political structure, exists in this situation, the presidents often tend to remain the same stance as the previous one had. It's only when contradictions of Europe and Russia are present in both international structural factors and national political structure, the presidents of Ukraine would choose a huge different stance from that of the previous one with the pressure of internal competition, and maintain the stance during his term in office. 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國立政治大學
政治學系
107252012資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107252012 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 林超琦 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Lin, Chao-Chi en_US dc.contributor.author (作者) 胡瀚雯 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (作者) Hu, Han-Wen en_US dc.creator (作者) 胡瀚雯 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Hu, Han-Wen en_US dc.date (日期) 2024 en_US dc.date.accessioned 4-九月-2024 15:58:18 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 4-九月-2024 15:58:18 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 4-九月-2024 15:58:18 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) G0107252012 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/153529 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 政治學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 107252012 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 1991年蘇聯瓦解後，烏克蘭獨立為主權國家。在歷經幾次國內重大選舉後，烏克蘭的民主化過程逐漸深耕，並以總統為國家主要決策者，影響著國內政局與國家對外政策。21世紀以來，隨著歐盟、北約的崛起和俄羅斯大國地位的復興，歐盟、北約與俄羅斯的競爭關係日漸成形，位於兩強中間地帶的烏克蘭，由於擁有極其關鍵的地緣政治與戰略地位重要性，於政治、經濟、軍事等外交與安全政策上，亦無法避免被週遭兩強所影響。除了國際因素外，作為一個擁有民主選舉的主權國家，其國內政治情勢亦是影響其外交與安全政策的重要關鍵因素。 本文之研究主軸以烏克蘭雙首長制下的主要外交與安全政策決策者「總統」出發，以不同總統任期為區分觀察，去探討不同時期的外交與安全政策選擇與變化。首先關注烏克蘭的國際結構因素，繼而分析烏克蘭外部的兩大國際強權，如何透過不同的策略與手段，影響烏克蘭外交與安全政策的選擇。再從國內政治結構出發，探討烏克蘭國內的不同政治行為者，如何促使與導致外交與安全政策的決策結果。本文研究發現，為爭取國家最大利益及政權延續，總統於其任內會嘗試發展多元、自主的外交政策，以滿足最多選民的政策期待。然而，由於烏克蘭國際結構因素與國內政治結構的歐俄對抗局勢，總統被迫在國內外的歐俄對抗之下，進行外交與安全政策的親歐、親俄立場選擇。若是國際結構因素與國內政治結構的歐俄對抗局勢僅有其一存在，不論是哪個，總統都會選擇維持與前任相同的外交與安全政策立場，只有在國際結構因素與國內政治結構都呈現歐俄對抗的局勢時，才會促使總統在國內政治競爭的壓力下，採取與前任截然不同的外交與安全政策立場，並於其任內維持一致，最終導致了烏克蘭外交與安全政策在1999年至2014年總統任期間的常態性變動特色。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine became an independent and sovereign state. After going through several significant election campaigns, democratization has been continuing to take root in the country, with the president as the primary policy maker who plays an influential role in politics within the country and diplomacy to other countries. Following the 21st century, along with the rise of European Union and NATO as well as the revitalization of Russia as a great power, the competition between them began to take shape. Due to its critical geopolitical and strategic position, Ukraine, in the middle of the two powers, cannot avoid the impacts from both sides in terms of decision of the diplomatic and security policies, like politics, economy and military. In addition to international factors, as a sovereign country with democracy and elections, the political atmosphere within Ukraine is also a key to its diplomatic and security policies. This study aims to start from the president of Ukraine, who is the primary diplomatic and security policy maker of this dual executive republic. By observing the tenure of each president throughout the years to explore the choices and changes of diplomatic and security policies in different periods. Firstly, looked into the international structural factors of Ukraine in order to analyze how the two great powers outside of Ukraine have affected its choices of the diplomatic and security policies with different strategy and method. Then, from its political structure, discussed how the different political behaviors within Ukraine have prompted to the results of those choices. The study found that, in order to earn the maximum interest for the nation as well as the stability of their political power, the presidents would try to develop diplomatic policies with diversity and autonomy, thereby satisfying expectations of the majority of voters. However, in the situation where competition between Europe and Russia affects Ukraine’s international structural factors and national political structure, the presidents are forced to choose a side in terms of diplomatic and security policies. If only one, either international structural factors or national political structure, exists in this situation, the presidents often tend to remain the same stance as the previous one had. It's only when contradictions of Europe and Russia are present in both international structural factors and national political structure, the presidents of Ukraine would choose a huge different stance from that of the previous one with the pressure of internal competition, and maintain the stance during his term in office. As a result, could see a regularly changing of diplomatic and security policies of Ukraine in different presidential terms from 1999 to 2014. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究動機與問題 1 第二節 文獻回顧 4 第三節 研究分析架構 16 第四節 研究方法與範圍 25 第五節 章節安排 27 第二章 西方與俄國關係下的烏克蘭 29 第一節 西方與俄國關係之發展與轉變（1991年至2000年） 30 第二節 西方與俄國關係之緊張與破裂（2000年至今） 35 第三節 西方與烏克蘭關係之地緣政治意義 41 第四節 俄國與烏克蘭關係之地緣政治意義 46 第五節 小結 52 第三章 烏克蘭歷屆總統之外交與安全政策及國際因素 55 第一節 1991年至1999年之政策及國際因素 56 第二節 1999年至2014年之政策及國際因素 61 第三節 2014年至今之政策及國際因素 71 第四節 小結 81 第四章 烏克蘭外交與安全政策之國內因素 83 第一節 1991年至1999年之政策國內因素 84 第二節 1999年至2014年之政策國內因素 94 第三節 2014年至今之政策國內因素 113 第四節 小結 122 第五章 結論 125 參考文獻 137 附錄 本文年表大事記 153 zh_TW dc.format.extent 4014472 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107252012 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 烏克蘭 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 地緣政治 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 中小型國家 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 外交與安全政策 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 俄羅斯 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Ukraine en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Geopolitics en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Middle-and-Small Powers en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Diplomatic and Security Policies en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Russia en_US dc.title (題名) 西方與俄國競逐下的烏克蘭外交與安全政策選擇：以國內政治與國際因素分析 zh_TW dc.title (題名) Ukraine’s Foreign and Security Policy Choices Under the Competition Between the West and Russia: An Analysis of Domestic Politics and International Factors en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、中文部分： （一）書籍： Ostrovsky, Arkady，2017，《製造俄羅斯：從戈巴契夫到普丁近代俄羅斯國家轉型與發展歷程》，楊芩雯譯，台北 : 馬可孛羅文化。 王業立，2006，《比較選舉制度》，台北 : 五南圖書。 袁芳，2002，《社會研究方法》，台北 : 五南圖書。 葉至誠，2000，《社會科學概論》，台北 : 揚智文化。 閻學通、孫學峰，2001，《國際關係實用研究方法》，北京 : 人民出版社。 （二）期刊論文： 吳玉山，1997，〈抗衡或扈從：面對強鄰時的策略抉擇（上）〉，《問題與研究》，36(2)：1-32。 吳玉山，1997，〈抗衡或扈從：面對強鄰時的策略抉擇（下）〉，《問題與研究》，36(3)：61-80。 吳玉山，2016，〈半總統制與策略性修憲〉，《政治科學論叢》，69：1-26。 宋國友、高群博，2012，〈經濟地理、政治版圖與不對稱相互依賴的權力效用—以俄羅斯阻止烏克蘭加入北約為例〉，《世界經濟與政治》，9：131-160。 張峻豪，2011，〈半總統制運作類型的跨國研究〉，《問題與研究》，50(2)：107-142。 陳宏銘，2007，〈半總統制的形成和演化－台灣、法國、波蘭與芬蘭的比較研究〉，《台灣民主季刊》，4(4)：27-69。 陳麒安，2013，〈新自由主義與後冷戰時期北約的存續：安全治理的觀點〉，《全球政治評論》，43：111-134。 楊三億，2008，〈歐盟睦鄰政策與其對烏克蘭政策實踐〉，《問題與研究》，47(3)：105-134。 楊三億，2014，〈歐盟對烏克蘭政策之外溢效果〉，《問題與研究》，53(1)：1-34。 楊三億，2018，〈烏克蘭安全策略選擇：內部因素分析〉，《問題與研究》，57(1)：1-28。 楊三億，2018，〈中小型國家的安全策略及其路徑演變：以塞爾維亞、亞美尼亞與烏克蘭為例〉，《政治科學論叢》，78：105-136。 劉丹，2019，〈俄白聯盟國家20年歷史嬗變與發展趨勢〉，《俄羅斯學刊》，6：41-45。 蔡榮祥、石鵬翔，2011，〈總理總統制與政治穩定：以烏克蘭、羅馬尼亞為例〉，《政治科學論叢》，47：65-106。 薛健吾，2016，〈抗衡或扈從: 14個歐亞國家對俄國外交政策選擇的再檢視〉， 《東吳政治學報》，34(3)：121-178。 魏百谷，2010，〈小國與強鄰相處之道──以芬蘭與俄羅斯關係為例〉，《台灣國際研究季刊》，6(1)：95-116。 魏百谷、Igor Piliaiev，2019，〈政治制度轉型對憲法體制的影響：以烏克蘭為個案的探討〉，《台灣國際研究學會》，1-31。 二、英文部分： （一）書籍部分： D'Anieri, Paul. 2019. 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