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題名 情感極化與投票抉擇：2021年公民投票之分析
Examining Affective Polarization and Voting Behavior: A Study of the 2021 Referenda in Taiwan作者 陳冠臻
Chen, Guan-Zhen貢獻者 陳陸輝
Chen, Lu-Huei
陳冠臻
Chen, Guan-Zhen關鍵詞 情感極化
2021年台灣公投
投票動員
投票選擇
Affective polarization
2021 referenda in Taiwan
Voter mobilization
Voter choice日期 2024 上傳時間 4-Sep-2024 15:58:53 (UTC+8) 摘要 本文檢視選民對政黨的情感極化程度，對其公民投票中的投票意願與投票選擇之影響。由於台灣處於兩大黨競爭的政治環境，在2021年公投中，即便公投是針對議題的選擇，但從四個表決案中的提案者背景、政黨菁英辯論過程與政黨在各平台的動員行動，皆可見政黨試圖在非一般選舉中施展其影響力。其中，政黨支持者正是最受政黨影響的群體，政黨認同者容易因為長期支持特定政黨，產生對於偏好政黨與對立政黨的情感差異。然而，在政黨的介入下，本次公投的投票率卻僅有41%，代表有一部分的政黨認同者並未在公投中因動員而參與投票。因此本文欲探究國民黨與民進黨選民對政黨之間的情感極化程度，是否為導致支持者被動員與否的主要原因，以及情感極化是否與其投票選擇有關。 本研究的資料來源為「台灣選舉與民主化調查」之「2021公民投票網路民調實驗平台調查案」，並以國民黨與民進黨認同者作為分析對象。 本文發現，情感極化程度愈高的選民，其立場將更往其偏好政黨主張的立場靠攏。高情感極化不僅提升選民投票意願，同時使選民的議題態度更貼近其偏好政黨的立場。故情感是影響藍綠選民投票行為的重要因素。除了情感極化外，其他重要且常見的政治態度與社會背景變數亦於投票行為中發揮影響，如在投票參與模型中，議題態度、政治興趣、過去投票經驗、性別與年齡皆顯著影響選民投票意願。而政治信任、對總統執政表現的滿意度、統獨立場與身分認同也是構成選民整體投票立場之因素。
This paper examines the impact of voters' affective polarization towards political parties on their voting participation and choice in referendums. Given Taiwan's political environment characterized by competition between two major parties, the 2021 referendum, although issue-based, saw clear attempts by political parties to exert influence. This is evident in the backgrounds of the proposers of the four ballot initiatives, the debates among party elites, and the mobilization efforts by the parties across various platforms. Party supporters are particularly susceptible to such influence, as those with strong party identification tend to develop emotional differences between their preferred party and opposing parties. However, despite party interventions, voter turnout in this referendum was only 41%, indicating that some party identifiers were not mobilized. This study seeks to explore whether the degree of affective polarization between Kuomintang (KMT) and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) voters is a key factor influencing voter mobilization and whether this polarization is related to their voting choices. The data for this research comes from the "2021 Referendum Internet Survey Experiment Platform" under the "Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study" (TEDS), focusing on KMT and DPP voters. The findings indicate that as the degree of affective polarization increases, voters' positions align more closely with the stances of their preferred party. High affective polarization not only enhances voting intention but also aligns voters' issue attitudes more closely with those of their preferred party. Therefore, emotion plays a crucial role in influencing the voting behavior of blue and green camp voters. In addition to affective polarization, other significant and common political attitudes and social background variables also impact voting behavior. In the voting participation model, factors such as issue attitudes, political interest, past voting experience, gender, and age significantly affect voter turnout. 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國立政治大學
政治學系
109252015資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109252015 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 陳陸輝 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Chen, Lu-Huei en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 陳冠臻 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Chen, Guan-Zhen en_US dc.creator (作者) 陳冠臻 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Chen, Guan-Zhen en_US dc.date (日期) 2024 en_US dc.date.accessioned 4-Sep-2024 15:58:53 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 4-Sep-2024 15:58:53 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 4-Sep-2024 15:58:53 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0109252015 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/153532 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 政治學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 109252015 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本文檢視選民對政黨的情感極化程度，對其公民投票中的投票意願與投票選擇之影響。由於台灣處於兩大黨競爭的政治環境，在2021年公投中，即便公投是針對議題的選擇，但從四個表決案中的提案者背景、政黨菁英辯論過程與政黨在各平台的動員行動，皆可見政黨試圖在非一般選舉中施展其影響力。其中，政黨支持者正是最受政黨影響的群體，政黨認同者容易因為長期支持特定政黨，產生對於偏好政黨與對立政黨的情感差異。然而，在政黨的介入下，本次公投的投票率卻僅有41%，代表有一部分的政黨認同者並未在公投中因動員而參與投票。因此本文欲探究國民黨與民進黨選民對政黨之間的情感極化程度，是否為導致支持者被動員與否的主要原因，以及情感極化是否與其投票選擇有關。 本研究的資料來源為「台灣選舉與民主化調查」之「2021公民投票網路民調實驗平台調查案」，並以國民黨與民進黨認同者作為分析對象。 本文發現，情感極化程度愈高的選民，其立場將更往其偏好政黨主張的立場靠攏。高情感極化不僅提升選民投票意願，同時使選民的議題態度更貼近其偏好政黨的立場。故情感是影響藍綠選民投票行為的重要因素。除了情感極化外，其他重要且常見的政治態度與社會背景變數亦於投票行為中發揮影響，如在投票參與模型中，議題態度、政治興趣、過去投票經驗、性別與年齡皆顯著影響選民投票意願。而政治信任、對總統執政表現的滿意度、統獨立場與身分認同也是構成選民整體投票立場之因素。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) This paper examines the impact of voters' affective polarization towards political parties on their voting participation and choice in referendums. Given Taiwan's political environment characterized by competition between two major parties, the 2021 referendum, although issue-based, saw clear attempts by political parties to exert influence. This is evident in the backgrounds of the proposers of the four ballot initiatives, the debates among party elites, and the mobilization efforts by the parties across various platforms. Party supporters are particularly susceptible to such influence, as those with strong party identification tend to develop emotional differences between their preferred party and opposing parties. However, despite party interventions, voter turnout in this referendum was only 41%, indicating that some party identifiers were not mobilized. This study seeks to explore whether the degree of affective polarization between Kuomintang (KMT) and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) voters is a key factor influencing voter mobilization and whether this polarization is related to their voting choices. The data for this research comes from the "2021 Referendum Internet Survey Experiment Platform" under the "Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study" (TEDS), focusing on KMT and DPP voters. The findings indicate that as the degree of affective polarization increases, voters' positions align more closely with the stances of their preferred party. High affective polarization not only enhances voting intention but also aligns voters' issue attitudes more closely with those of their preferred party. Therefore, emotion plays a crucial role in influencing the voting behavior of blue and green camp voters. In addition to affective polarization, other significant and common political attitudes and social background variables also impact voting behavior. In the voting participation model, factors such as issue attitudes, political interest, past voting experience, gender, and age significantly affect voter turnout. Moreover, political trust, satisfaction with the president's performance, positions on unification versus independence, and Taiwanese/Chinese identity are also factors shaping voters' overall voting positions. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究背景與動機 1 第二節 研究目的與問題 6 第三節 章節架構安排 7 第二章 文獻回顧與理論脈絡 9 第一節 情感極化理論 9 第二節 公投中的投票行為 17 第三章 研究設計與方法 29 第一節 研究資料來源 29 第二節 研究架構與操作化方法 30 第四章 研究發現 35 第一節 台灣選民情感極化之現象 35 第二節 情感極化與投票參與 38 第三節 情感極化與投票選擇 42 第四節 小結 50 第五章 結論 53 第一節 研究結果 53 第二節 研究限制與未來發展 56 參考文獻 59 附錄一：各變數之測量方式 75 附錄二：各變數之描述統計 79 zh_TW dc.format.extent 3429510 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109252015 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 情感極化 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 2021年台灣公投 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 投票動員 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 投票選擇 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Affective polarization en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 2021 referenda in Taiwan en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Voter mobilization en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Voter choice en_US dc.title (題名) 情感極化與投票抉擇：2021年公民投票之分析 zh_TW dc.title (題名) Examining Affective Polarization and Voting Behavior: A Study of the 2021 Referenda in Taiwan en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) I 中文部分 中央選舉委員會，2021，〈110年全國性公民投票第17至20案公報〉，中央選舉委員會公民投票專區網站：https://web.cec.gov.tw/referendum/cms/123/36184，檢索日期：2023年9月15日。 中央選舉委員會，2021，〈110年全國性公民投票第17至20案投票結果〉，中選會公民投票專區網站：https://web.cec.gov.tw/referendum/cms/p_result/36189，檢索日期：2023年9月15日。 林瓊珠、蔡佳泓，2010，〈從成案到投票－2008年討黨產與入聯公投的公投意向與參與行爲〉，《臺灣民主季刊》，14(1): 1-31。 徐永明、蔡佳泓、黃綉庭，2005，〈公民投票－台灣國家認同的新動力〉，《臺灣民主季刊》，2(1): 51-74。 張佑宗、趙珮如，2006，〈社會脈絡、個人網絡與臺灣2004年立法委員選舉選民的投票抉擇〉，《臺灣民主季刊》，3(2): 1-38。 盛治仁，2003，〈理性抉擇理論在政治學運用之探討〉，《東吳政治學報》，17: 21-51。 莊文忠，2016，《選舉人性別投票統計改良之研究》，計畫編號：PG10505-0031，中央選舉委員會委託研究案。 莊文忠，2020，《第15 任總統副總統及第 10 屆立法委員選舉投票統計分析》，中央選舉委員會委託研究案。 莊文忠，2022，《110年全國性公民投票案第17案至 第20案投票統計分析》，中央選舉委員會委託研究案。 陳陸輝，2021，《2020年至2024年「台灣選舉與民主化調查」四年期研究規劃(2/4)：2021公民投票網路民調實驗平台調查案》，計畫編號：MOST 109-2740-H-004 -004 -SS4，台北：科技部補助專題研究計畫。 蔡佳泓，2007，〈民主深化或政黨競爭？初探台灣2004年公民投票參與〉，《台灣政治學刊》，11(1): 109-145。 鄭夙芬、陳陸輝、劉嘉薇，2008，〈選舉事件與政治信任：以2004年總統選舉為例〉，《問題與研究》，47(3): 29-50。 蕭怡靖，2014，〈從政黨情感溫度計解析台灣民眾的政治極化〉，《選舉研究》， 21(2): 1-42。 II外文部分 Abramowitz, Alan I., and Kyle L. 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