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題名 新冠疫情下的聚旗效應：多層次迴歸模型的實證分析
The Rally Effects in the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Multilevel Analysis作者 趙紫晴
Zhao, Zi-Qing貢獻者 蘇彥斌
Su, Yen-Pin
趙紫晴
Zhao, Zi-Qing關鍵詞 新冠肺炎
總統滿意度
施政表現
聚旗效應
多層次迴歸模型
COVID-19
Presidential popularity
Government performance
Rally-round-the-flag effect
Multilevel modeling日期 2024 上傳時間 4-九月-2024 16:00:04 (UTC+8) 摘要 本研究試圖探討在國家發生危機時，為何有些人對國家領導人會有較高的滿度度，有些人卻沒有。先前文獻指出，人民在國家經歷危機時，對於政府與國家領導人會有較高的滿意度，反映的是一種「聚旗效應」。然而，自2020年初新冠肺炎疫情開始蔓延全球以來，關於聚旗效應的研究並沒有一致的發現。由於先前文獻大多針對單一國家的民調資料進行分析，少有研究利用跨國資料進行驗證。為了補充既有文獻的不足，本論文採用跨國定群追蹤民意調查資料，建構多層次迴歸模型來驗證新冠疫情下聚旗效應的假設。本研究有三個發現：首先，當個人對疫情的恐懼感越強，則個人愈支持國家領導人。其次，在因新冠肺炎死亡的人數越高的國家，該國民眾愈支持國家領導人。第三，在政府防疫政策嚴格程度越高的國家，該國民眾愈支持國家領導人。本研究的實證結果為聚旗效應的研究提出更細膩的分析觀點，同時也能對危機下的政治行為提供若干政策意涵。
This study aims to examine the variation in individuals' approval of their national leaders during national crises. Previous studies indicate that international crises tend to increase citizens’ approval of governments and political incumbents. Such a sudden spike in public approval during times of crisis reflects the “rally-round-the-flag” effect. However, since the global outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, existing research on the rally effect has shown mixed results. While most studies have focused on single-country surveys, few utilize cross-national survey data. To fill the gap in the literature, this study uses cross-national panel survey data and adopts multilevel models to test hypotheses about rally effects in the COVID-19 crisis. The findings of this study are threefold. Firstly, individuals with heightened fear of the pandemic are more likely to support their national leaders. Secondly, in countries with higher COVID-19 death tolls, citizens tend to exhibit greater support for their national leaders. Thirdly, in countries with more stringent policies to cope with the pandemic, citizens demonstrate higher levels of support for their national leaders. Overall, this study facilitates a better understanding of the rally-round-the-flag effect, and it also provides important policy implications for political behavior in times of crisis.參考文獻 I 中文文獻 包正豪，2013，〈人格特質與施政滿意度：以馬英九總統為個案的探索性研究〉，《法政學報》，25：1-26。 李世宏、吳重禮，2003，〈總統施政表現評價影響因素之分析與比較：以整體施政、經濟發展與兩岸關係為例〉，《公共行政學報》，8：35-69。 林玿弘，2019，〈815停電事件對總統滿意度的影響：以文字探勘為途徑〉，台北：國立台灣大學政治學系碩士學位論文。 林修全，2013，〈影響總統施政滿意度因素之研究：2000-2012〉，台北：國立台灣大學國家發展研究所碩士學位論文。 盛治仁、白瑋華，2008，〈陳水扁總統首任施政表現評價影響因素探討〉，《東吳政治學報》，26（1）：1-50。 陳陸輝、耿曙，2009，〈和平、繁榮與希望：總統滿意度的解析〉，陳陸輝、游清鑫與黃紀主編，《2008年總統選舉：論二次政黨輪替之關鍵選舉》：348-368，台北：五南。 黃信豪，2006，〈多層模型於選民投票行為研究的應用：以 2004 年總統選舉為例〉，《東吳政治學報》，22：161-201。 溫福星、邱皓政， 2011，《多層次模式方法論：階層線性模式的關鍵問題與試解》，台北：αβγ實驗室。 蕭怡靖、黃紀，2010，〈2008 年立委選舉候選人票之分析： 選民個體與選區總體的多層模型〉，《台灣政治學刊》，14（1）：3-53。 II 英文文獻 Ahorsu, Daniel Kwasi, Chung-Ying Lin, Vida Imani, Mohsen Saffari, Mark D. Griffiths, and Amir H. 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國立政治大學
政治學系
111252005資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111252005 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 蘇彥斌 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Su, Yen-Pin en_US dc.contributor.author (作者) 趙紫晴 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (作者) Zhao, Zi-Qing en_US dc.creator (作者) 趙紫晴 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Zhao, Zi-Qing en_US dc.date (日期) 2024 en_US dc.date.accessioned 4-九月-2024 16:00:04 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 4-九月-2024 16:00:04 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 4-九月-2024 16:00:04 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) G0111252005 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/153538 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 政治學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 111252005 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究試圖探討在國家發生危機時，為何有些人對國家領導人會有較高的滿度度，有些人卻沒有。先前文獻指出，人民在國家經歷危機時，對於政府與國家領導人會有較高的滿意度，反映的是一種「聚旗效應」。然而，自2020年初新冠肺炎疫情開始蔓延全球以來，關於聚旗效應的研究並沒有一致的發現。由於先前文獻大多針對單一國家的民調資料進行分析，少有研究利用跨國資料進行驗證。為了補充既有文獻的不足，本論文採用跨國定群追蹤民意調查資料，建構多層次迴歸模型來驗證新冠疫情下聚旗效應的假設。本研究有三個發現：首先，當個人對疫情的恐懼感越強，則個人愈支持國家領導人。其次，在因新冠肺炎死亡的人數越高的國家，該國民眾愈支持國家領導人。第三，在政府防疫政策嚴格程度越高的國家，該國民眾愈支持國家領導人。本研究的實證結果為聚旗效應的研究提出更細膩的分析觀點，同時也能對危機下的政治行為提供若干政策意涵。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) This study aims to examine the variation in individuals' approval of their national leaders during national crises. Previous studies indicate that international crises tend to increase citizens’ approval of governments and political incumbents. Such a sudden spike in public approval during times of crisis reflects the “rally-round-the-flag” effect. However, since the global outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, existing research on the rally effect has shown mixed results. While most studies have focused on single-country surveys, few utilize cross-national survey data. To fill the gap in the literature, this study uses cross-national panel survey data and adopts multilevel models to test hypotheses about rally effects in the COVID-19 crisis. The findings of this study are threefold. Firstly, individuals with heightened fear of the pandemic are more likely to support their national leaders. Secondly, in countries with higher COVID-19 death tolls, citizens tend to exhibit greater support for their national leaders. Thirdly, in countries with more stringent policies to cope with the pandemic, citizens demonstrate higher levels of support for their national leaders. Overall, this study facilitates a better understanding of the rally-round-the-flag effect, and it also provides important policy implications for political behavior in times of crisis. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 7 第一節 研究動機與目的 7 第二章 文獻回顧與理論 11 第一節 總統施政表現評價 11 第二節 聚旗效應 17 第三節 新冠疫情與聚旗效應之理論與假設 21 第三章 研究設計 27 第一節 使用資料與研究範圍 27 第二節 量化研究設計 28 第三節 分析方法 31 第四章 實證分析 39 第一節 敘述統計 39 第二節 零模型與多層次迴歸模型 47 第三節 穩健性檢測 53 第五章 結論 64 參考文獻 67 附錄 各變數的測量題目與編碼 79 zh_TW dc.format.extent 3249536 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111252005 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 新冠肺炎 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 總統滿意度 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 施政表現 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 聚旗效應 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 多層次迴歸模型 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) COVID-19 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Presidential popularity en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Government performance en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Rally-round-the-flag effect en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Multilevel modeling en_US dc.title (題名) 新冠疫情下的聚旗效應：多層次迴歸模型的實證分析 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The Rally Effects in the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Multilevel Analysis en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) I 中文文獻 包正豪，2013，〈人格特質與施政滿意度：以馬英九總統為個案的探索性研究〉，《法政學報》，25：1-26。 李世宏、吳重禮，2003，〈總統施政表現評價影響因素之分析與比較：以整體施政、經濟發展與兩岸關係為例〉，《公共行政學報》，8：35-69。 林玿弘，2019，〈815停電事件對總統滿意度的影響：以文字探勘為途徑〉，台北：國立台灣大學政治學系碩士學位論文。 林修全，2013，〈影響總統施政滿意度因素之研究：2000-2012〉，台北：國立台灣大學國家發展研究所碩士學位論文。 盛治仁、白瑋華，2008，〈陳水扁總統首任施政表現評價影響因素探討〉，《東吳政治學報》，26（1）：1-50。 陳陸輝、耿曙，2009，〈和平、繁榮與希望：總統滿意度的解析〉，陳陸輝、游清鑫與黃紀主編，《2008年總統選舉：論二次政黨輪替之關鍵選舉》：348-368，台北：五南。 黃信豪，2006，〈多層模型於選民投票行為研究的應用：以 2004 年總統選舉為例〉，《東吳政治學報》，22：161-201。 溫福星、邱皓政， 2011，《多層次模式方法論：階層線性模式的關鍵問題與試解》，台北：αβγ實驗室。 蕭怡靖、黃紀，2010，〈2008 年立委選舉候選人票之分析： 選民個體與選區總體的多層模型〉，《台灣政治學刊》，14（1）：3-53。 II 英文文獻 Ahorsu, Daniel Kwasi, Chung-Ying Lin, Vida Imani, Mohsen Saffari, Mark D. 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